Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: Today’s HF propagation is being shaped by a moderately high solar flux (156), a healthy sunspot count (133), and a K-index of 4, indicating unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Expect fair conditions on most HF bands, with low bands (80m/40m) struggling during the day but improving at night, while higher bands (20m-10m) offer fair but not excellent openings, especially during daylight hours. Elevated solar wind and X-ray activity (C1.2) may cause some short-term disturbances or blackouts, particularly at higher latitudes. Operators should be alert for variable band openings and occasional noise, but DX is still possible with the right timing and strategy.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, RTTY) for better performance during fair/poor conditions, especially on higher bands.
• Daytime: Focus on 20m, 17m, and 15m for the best chance at DX; 10m/12m may open sporadically—check often.
• Nighttime: Switch to 80m and 40m for regional and some intercontinental contacts.
• Antennas: Directional antennas or verticals will help cut through increased noise and maximize weak signal work.
• Contesting/DX: Watch for grayline enhancements at sunrise/sunset for surprise openings, especially on 20m and 40m.
• Monitor space weather alerts for sudden changes—shortwave blackouts can occur with elevated X-ray flux.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best after sunset and before sunrise (nighttime, early morning).
• 20m/17m/15m: Best mid-morning through late afternoon; check for grayline boosts at sunrise/sunset.
• 12m/10m: Sporadic openings possible late morning to early afternoon; check frequently for short DX windows.
• VHF/UHF: No significant aurora or E-skip expected, but monitor for local enhancements.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline paths (sunrise/sunset) on 40m and 20m may yield surprise long-haul DX—watch for rapid signal improvements.
• 20m and 17m are the most reliable for intercontinental DX today, especially east-west paths.
• 10m/12m may open briefly for north-south DX, especially in the late morning; check beacons and cluster spots.
• Aurora activity is moderate (level 3), so northern operators may see some auroral flutter on HF and possibly weak VHF aurora.
• Watch for short-lived openings during geomagnetic fluctuations, especially on 15m and 10m.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Daytime operation is best on 20m, 17m, and 15m, with all three bands offering fair conditions for both regional and DX contacts. 80m and 40m are poor during the day but improve to fair at night, making them ideal for late evening and early morning work. 12m and 10m are fair during daylight but likely to close at night—check these bands for short, sporadic openings, especially for north-south paths.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 4 (Unsettled geomagnetic conditions; expect increased noise and possible shortwave fadeouts, especially at higher latitudes)
• Solar Flux: 156 (Moderately high; supports fair propagation on upper HF bands)
• Sunspot Number: 133 (Healthy; indicates ongoing solar activity and potential for band openings)
• Space Weather Overview: Elevated solar wind (708.7 km/s) and X-ray flux (C1.2) may trigger brief HF blackouts or absorption events, especially on sunlit paths.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has been elevated and variable over the past 24 hours, indicating unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions.
• These fluctuations can cause increased QSB (fading), higher noise levels, and occasional shortwave blackouts, especially on polar and trans-auroral paths.
• Conditions are not storm-level, but operators should expect some instability, particularly at higher latitudes and on higher bands.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: C1.2 (Moderate; risk of short HF blackouts, particularly on daylight paths)
• Solar Wind: 708.7 km/s (High; increases geomagnetic activity and can degrade HF propagation)
• Electron Flux: 1280 (Elevated; may cause absorption on lower bands and contribute to noise)
• Proton Flux: 28 (Low to moderate; no major proton event)
• Aurora: 3 (Moderate; possible auroral flutter on HF, weak VHF aurora for high-latitude operators)
• Helium Line: 124.6 (Stable; no major flare trend, but keep an eye on sudden changes)

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show a declining trend in solar flux and sunspot numbers from late 2025 into early 2026, but current values have rebounded somewhat, supporting fair HF propagation. The solar flux has dropped from peaks above 160 to the current 125–156 range, and sunspot numbers have similarly decreased but remain healthy for mid-cycle conditions. This means band conditions are not at their best, but still support regular DX and regional contacts, especially with digital modes and good antennas.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• HF conditions are expected to remain fair, with unsettled geomagnetic activity likely to persist. Watch for brief improvements if the K-index drops, especially on 20m and 17m.
• Best bands: 20m, 17m, and 15m during the day; 40m and 80m at night.
• Worst bands: 80m/40m during the day, 10m/12m at night.
• No major space weather alerts at this time, but continue to monitor for solar flare or geomagnetic storm warnings.
• Action: Check band conditions frequently, use digital modes for weak signals, and take advantage of grayline for best DX results.