Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is showing moderate conditions, with solar flux at 107 and a sunspot number of 23, both on the lower side for high-band openings. Geomagnetic activity is low (K-index 2), which is favorable for stable propagation, especially on the lower bands. Expect good performance on 20m and 40m, while higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) will be challenging or mostly closed. Operators should focus on the lower bands for reliable contacts, especially during the night and early morning. Watch for brief DX windows on 20m during daylight and grayline periods.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m and 40m for both local and DX contacts—these bands are the most reliable today.
• 80m and 40m are best at night and early morning; use digital modes (FT8, PSK31) to maximize weak signal performance.
• 15m, 12m, and 10m are mostly poor—monitor for short-lived openings, especially around local noon or during solar upticks.
• Use low-noise antennas and consider verticals or dipoles for lower bands.
• For DX: target grayline times (sunrise/sunset) on 20m and 40m for best long-haul propagation.
• Contesting: Focus on 20m/40m for rate; check 17m/15m for multipliers but expect limited activity.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Night and early morning (best for local/regional, some DX)
• 20m: Late morning through sunset (best for DX and intercontinental)
• 17m/15m: Midday (occasional openings, mostly fair)
• 12m/10m: Around local noon (watch for brief, weak openings)
• Grayline (sunrise/sunset): Enhanced DX on 40m and 20m

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m: Most reliable for DX, especially along the grayline and during daylight.
• 40m: Good for regional and some long-haul DX at night.
• 15m: Occasional short openings possible, especially to equatorial and southern latitudes.
• Grayline: Enhanced propagation on 20m and 40m—target east-west paths.
• Aurora: Low activity (Aurora index 5), so VHF auroral propagation is unlikely.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m is the most consistent performer throughout the day and evening, offering good conditions for both local and DX contacts. 40m and 80m shine at night, with excellent conditions for regional and some long-haul DX. 17m and 15m are only fair—watch for brief enhancements, but don't expect sustained activity. 12m and 10m are generally poor and likely closed for most operators.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2 — Low geomagnetic activity, meaning stable HF conditions and minimal auroral disturbance.
• Solar Flux: 107 — Below average; limits high-band (15m/12m/10m) propagation, but supports 20m and lower.
• Sunspot Number: 23 — Low; correlates with weaker ionization and fewer high-band openings.
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux at B2.5 (quiet), and solar wind at 439 km/s (moderate).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has remained low and stable over the past 24 hours, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions.
• No recent geomagnetic storms; expect continued stability, which favors low-band and mid-band HF propagation.
• No warnings or alerts for increased geomagnetic activity.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B2.5 — Very low; no risk of HF blackouts or sudden ionospheric disturbances.
• Solar Wind: 439 km/s — Moderate, but not enough to trigger geomagnetic storms.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux 2920, Proton flux 427 — Both are within normal ranges; no significant impact on HF.
• Aurora Activity: Index 5 — Low; auroral propagation on VHF/UHF is not expected.
• Helium Line: 111.0 — Indicates steady, low solar activity; no trend toward increased flare risk.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show a gradual decline in both solar flux and sunspot numbers, with solar flux dropping from 138 in June to 116 in August, and sunspots from 94 to 76. This trend explains the current lackluster high-band conditions and highlights the importance of focusing on 20m and lower bands for reliable operation.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• HF conditions are expected to remain stable with low geomagnetic activity and little change in solar flux.
• 20m and 40m will continue to be the best bands for both local and DX contacts.
• 15m, 12m, and 10m will remain challenging; monitor for any brief openings, especially if solar flux rises.
• No alerts or warnings are in effect; operators can expect predictable band conditions for the next several days.