Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF radio conditions today are mixed, with moderate solar flux and low sunspot numbers resulting in generally fair propagation on the higher bands and good conditions on 20 meters. The geomagnetic field has recently calmed after a period of elevated K-index, but some lingering disturbances may still affect propagation, especially at higher latitudes. Expect the best results on 20m during daylight and early evening, while 40m and 80m will be more reliable at night. High bands (15m, 12m, 10m) may open for short periods during the day, but expect fair to poor conditions overall. Operators should be flexible and check multiple bands for openings.

💡 Operator Tips

• Focus on 20m for reliable daytime and evening contacts, especially for DX.
• Monitor 15m, 12m, and 10m during local midday for possible short-lived openings—use FT8 or other weak-signal modes to maximize your chances.
• 40m and 80m will be best after sunset and before sunrise; use these for regional and some DX contacts at night.
• Consider digital modes (FT8, PSK31) for marginal band conditions, especially on high bands.
• For contesting or DXing, check grayline times for enhanced long-path propagation.
• Keep an eye on real-time K-index and solar wind updates—rapid changes can quickly alter band conditions.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Best at night and early morning (local time)
• 20m: Good all day and into the evening
• 17m, 15m: Fair during late morning to mid-afternoon
• 12m, 10m: Possible openings around local noon, but expect short and spotty conditions

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline propagation: Enhanced paths on 40m and 20m around local sunrise and sunset—target east-west DX.
• 20m: Remains the most reliable band for intercontinental DX, especially during daylight and early evening.
• High bands (15m, 12m, 10m): Watch for brief F-layer openings, especially toward equatorial and southern hemisphere paths.
• Aurora activity: Slightly elevated, so northern operators may experience auroral flutter on HF and possible VHF aurora on 6m.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

20m is the most consistent performer throughout the day and evening, offering the best chance for both local and DX contacts. 17m and 15m are usable but less reliable, with fair conditions and possible short openings. 12m and 10m may open briefly during the day but are generally poor at night. 80m and 40m are best reserved for nighttime and early morning operation.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3.33 — Moderate geomagnetic activity; not stormy, but some disturbances may persist, especially at higher latitudes.
• Solar Flux: 120 (recent monthly average ~151) — Moderate radio energy from the sun; enough for daytime F-layer propagation on 20m and possibly 17/15m.
• Sunspot Number: 0 (recent monthly average ~112) — Very low sunspot count today, which limits high-band openings and overall HF propagation quality.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

The K-index has trended downward over the past 24 hours after a period of elevated values (peaking at 5.33), indicating that geomagnetic conditions are improving but not yet fully quiet. This recent activity may still cause some absorption and fading, especially on polar and high-latitude paths. Expect further improvement if the K-index continues to drop.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: C1.1 — Low-level X-ray activity; no major HF blackouts expected, but keep an eye on sudden increases.
• Solar Wind: 543.3 km/s — Elevated solar wind speed; can contribute to geomagnetic disturbances and auroral activity.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 2560 — Moderately high; can cause minor HF absorption and increased noise, especially at high latitudes.
  • Proton Flux: 52 — Quiet; no significant impact on HF expected.
• Aurora Activity: 3 — Slightly elevated; northern operators may notice auroral flutter on HF and possible VHF aurora on 6m.
• Helium Line: 119.3 — Stable; no major solar trend changes indicated.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months have shown a gradual decline in both solar flux and sunspot numbers, with solar flux dropping from ~160 in December to 151 in January and 120 currently. This trend suggests a slow weakening of HF propagation, especially on higher bands. The current conditions reflect this, with 20m holding steady but higher bands less reliable.

🔮 3-Day Forecast