Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation conditions today are generally moderate due to a solar flux of 108 and a sunspot number of 65, both slightly below recent averages. The K-index is very low (1), indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions and minimal disturbances. Expect good performance on 20m throughout the day and night, while higher bands (12m/10m) remain mostly closed. Lower bands (80m/40m) will perform best at night. Operators should focus on the mid-bands for reliable contacts and watch for brief DX windows on 15m and 17m.

💡 Operator Tips

• Target 20m for all-day activity; it's the most reliable band under current conditions.
• 80m and 40m will be your best bet for nighttime local and regional QSOs.
• Digital modes (FT8, FT4, JS8) are recommended on higher bands (15m/17m/12m/10m) to take advantage of weak openings.
• Use directional antennas to maximize DX potential, especially during grayline.
• CW and digital will outperform SSB on marginal bands—consider switching modes for tough conditions.
• Keep an eye on real-time solar data for any sudden changes, but expect mostly stable conditions today.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning for regional and some DX.
• 20m: Open all day and night for both local and international QSOs.
• 17m/15m: Try late morning through afternoon for possible DX, especially on digital.
• 12m/10m: Limited to no openings; check during local noon for sporadic E or brief enhancements.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline propagation will favor 40m and 20m—watch sunrise and sunset for enhanced long-path DX.
• 20m offers the most consistent DX paths, especially east-west.
• 17m/15m may open briefly to equatorial and southern latitudes during daylight.
• Aurora activity is low, so VHF/UHF auroral DX is unlikely.
• No major space weather events expected, so conditions should remain stable for planned DXpeditions and contests.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m is the standout performer, offering good conditions around the clock and the best chance for DX. 80m and 40m are fair during the day but improve to good at night, making them ideal for overnight nets and regional work. 17m and 15m are fair all day—try digital modes for best results. 12m and 10m are largely poor and likely closed, with only a slim chance of sporadic E. Focus your efforts on 20m for DX and 40m/80m for nighttime activity.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 1 (very quiet) – No geomagnetic disturbances, stable HF conditions.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 108 (moderate, but below recent months) – Limits high-band openings, but supports 20m and lower.
• Sunspot Number: 65 (declining from recent highs) – Indicates a lull in solar activity, which reduces MUF and high-band performance.
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux at B4.9 (quiet), solar wind speed is low (317.5 km/s), and aurora activity is minimal.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has been stable and low (0-1) over the past 24 hours, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions.
• No recent geomagnetic storms or disturbances, so propagation is unaffected by space weather.
• These quiet conditions favor stable HF propagation, especially on the lower and mid bands.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B4.9 level – Low, so no risk of sudden HF blackouts or D-layer absorption.
• Solar Wind: 317.5 km/s – Below average, meaning minimal geomagnetic disturbance.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux at 1800 (moderate), proton flux at 11 (low) – No significant impact on HF propagation.
• Aurora Activity: Level 1 – Very low, so no auroral propagation expected on VHF/UHF.
• Helium Line: 102.3 – Indicates quiet solar conditions and no trend toward increased activity.
• Practical Impact: Expect stable, predictable HF with no major disruptions; VHF/UHF operators should not expect auroral enhancements.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past several months, solar flux and sunspot numbers have declined from their late-2025 peaks (SF ~160, SSN ~125) to current moderate levels (SF 108, SSN 65).
• This downward trend means the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower, so high bands (12m/10m) are less likely to open.
• 20m remains reliable due to its lower MUF requirements, while 80m/40m benefit from quiet geomagnetic conditions at night.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Propagation is expected to remain stable with continued low K-index and no major solar events forecasted.
• 20m will continue to be the most reliable band for DX and general operation.
• 80m/40m will stay strong at night; 15m/17m may offer brief daytime DX, especially on digital.
• 12m/10m will likely remain closed except for possible short-lived sporadic E events.
• No alerts or warnings are in effect—enjoy the quiet conditions and plan for reliable HF operation!