Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation is currently challenging due to a combination of low solar flux (94), a modest sunspot number (62), and elevated geomagnetic activity (K-index 5, A-index 27). Most HF bands are experiencing poor conditions, with only 17m and 15m showing fair potential. Expect limited DX opportunities and generally short skip distances, especially during daylight hours. Operators should focus on digital modes and lower bands for any chance of contacts, and be prepared for rapid changes if geomagnetic activity increases further.

💡 Operator Tips

• Digital modes (FT8, JT65, PSK31) are your best bet for making contacts under these tough conditions.
• Lower your expectations for SSB and CW on higher bands—stick to 17m and 15m for any daytime activity.
• Check antennas and grounding—with geomagnetic disturbances, noise levels may rise.
• Monitor the K-index throughout the day; if it drops, higher bands may briefly improve.
• Chase grayline openings at sunrise/sunset, especially on 17m and 15m.
• For VHF/UHF, auroral propagation is possible at high latitudes due to increased aurora activity.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Limited, but try local nets and NVIS at night.
• 20m: Poor overall, but try late morning and early evening for short skip.
• 17m/15m: Fair during midday and early afternoon—best chance for any DX.
• 12m/10m: Mostly closed, but check for brief openings during peak solar hours (if K-index drops).
• Grayline: Sunrise and sunset on 17m/15m may yield brief enhancements.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• DX is limited today, but short-path openings may occur on 17m and 15m during local midday.
• Grayline enhancement: Watch for brief DX windows on 17m and 15m at your local sunrise/sunset.
• Auroral paths: Northern operators may see VHF/UHF auroral propagation due to elevated aurora index (5).
• East-west paths may be slightly better than north-south due to current solar wind direction.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

The 17m and 15m bands are currently the most reliable for any HF activity, with fair conditions throughout the day and night. All other HF bands (80m–12m) are rated as poor, with minimal propagation expected. 10m and 12m are essentially closed. 80m and 40m may still support local contacts, especially at night, but DX is unlikely.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 5 (elevated geomagnetic activity) – expect increased absorption and fading, especially on polar and high-latitude paths.
• Solar Flux: 94 (low radio energy from the sun) – limits ionization, reducing MUF and band openings.
• Sunspot Number: 62 (modest) – not enough to sustain higher band propagation.
• Space Weather Overview: The combination of low solar flux and elevated geomagnetic activity means poor HF conditions and higher noise levels.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has recently spiked to 5, indicating a minor geomagnetic storm. This is a worsening trend compared to previous days, likely due to increased solar wind or a recent CME.
• Expect degraded propagation, especially on polar and trans-equatorial paths.
• If the K-index drops, conditions may improve slightly, so monitor real-time updates.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B2.2 (low) – no significant HF blackouts, but not enough to boost ionization.
• Solar Wind Speed: 360.8 km/s – moderate, but combined with the magnetic field, it’s enough to trigger geomagnetic disturbances.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux 1360, Proton flux 22 – elevated electron flux can increase D-layer absorption, especially on lower bands.
• Aurora Activity: Index 5 – moderate auroral activity; VHF/UHF aurora propagation possible at high latitudes.
• Helium Line: 106.5 – indicates subdued solar activity, not supportive of strong HF enhancement.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past several months, solar flux has fluctuated between 120–138, but has now dropped to 94, a significant decrease.
• Sunspot numbers have also declined from over 100 to the current 62–78 range.
• This downward trend in solar activity is directly linked to today’s poor HF conditions.

🔮 3-Day Forecast