Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary:
Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and quiet geomagnetic conditions. The solar flux is at 100 (recently trending higher), and the sunspot number is 36, both indicating average to slightly below average ionospheric support. The K-index is low (2), meaning geomagnetic activity is calm, which favors stable propagation, especially on lower bands. Expect good conditions on 20m throughout the day and fair to good conditions on 80m and 40m at night. Higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) will be challenging, with poor openings likely. For best results, focus on the lower and mid-HF bands, and check grayline times for DX.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m for daytime DX; it’s the most reliable band today.
• 80m and 40m will perform well after sunset—ideal for regional and some DX contacts.
• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) to maximize weak signal work, especially on higher bands.
• Monitor grayline for enhanced long-path openings, especially on 40m and 20m.
• Keep antennas optimized for lower angles if chasing DX; verticals and beams will help.
• VHF/UHF: Aurora activity is low, so expect typical summer sporadic-E, but not auroral propagation.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning for both local and some DX.
• 20m: Good all day, especially late morning through afternoon.
• 17m/15m: Fair during midday; check for short-lived openings.
• 12m/10m: Mostly poor; try during local noon for any brief enhancement.
• Grayline (sunrise/sunset): Enhanced propagation on 40m and 20m for DX.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline paths (dawn/dusk) on 40m and 20m will offer the best chance for intercontinental DX.
• 20m is the primary band for daytime DX, especially on east-west paths.
• 80m/40m: Look for transcontinental and intercontinental openings during local nighttime.
• No significant aurora or polar openings expected; VHF DX is limited to sporadic-E.
• Watch for short, enhanced paths on 17m/15m around local noon.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m is the most consistent performer today, with good conditions throughout. 80m and 40m are fair during the day but good at night—ideal for evening and overnight operation. 17m and 15m offer only fair conditions; check for brief midday openings. 12m and 10m are largely closed or poor—not recommended unless there’s a surprise opening.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2 (quiet geomagnetic conditions, minimal disruptions)
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 100 (average, supports mid-band propagation but limits higher bands)
• Sunspot Number: 36 (low to moderate, less ionization for upper bands)
• Space Weather: No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux is low (B3.8).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has remained low and stable over the past 24 hours, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions.
• No recent geomagnetic storms or significant disturbances.
• Expect stable propagation, especially on lower bands, with minimal fading or absorption.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B3.8 (low); no threat of HF blackouts.
• Solar Wind Speed: 463 km/s (moderate); not high enough to trigger geomagnetic storms.
• Electron Flux: 1080 (moderate); may cause mild absorption on polar paths, but not significant.
• Proton Flux: 142 (quiet); no radiation storm impacts.
• Aurora Level: 3 (quiet); auroral propagation is unlikely on HF/VHF.
• Helium Line: 106.0 (steady); no rapid solar trend changes detected.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent months show a decline in both solar flux and sunspot numbers from early 2026 peaks, but values remain moderate.
• Solar flux dropped from ~151 in January to ~100 now, with a slight uptick in June (138).
• Sunspot numbers have decreased from over 100 to the current 36, reflecting a quieter solar phase.
• These trends explain the reduced performance on higher bands and consistent reliability on 20m and below.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Propagation is expected to remain stable with low geomagnetic activity and no major solar events forecast.
• 20m will continue to be the best all-around band.
• 80m/40m: Nighttime operation will remain productive.
• 12m/10m: Remain poor; check for brief openings but set expectations low.
• No alerts or warnings for HF or VHF operators at this time.
• Watch for any sudden solar changes—if solar flux rises or K-index spikes, conditions may shift quickly.