Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation is currently in a moderate phase, with solar flux at 109 and sunspot numbers at 105, indicating average solar activity. Daytime conditions are best on the 20m band, while higher bands like 12m and 10m remain mostly closed. Geomagnetic activity is low to moderate (K-index at 3), so expect generally stable conditions with occasional minor disturbances. Operators should focus on the 20m and 17m bands for reliable contacts, especially during daylight hours, and use lower bands at night for regional QSOs.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use 20m during daylight for the most consistent DX and intercontinental contacts.
• 17m and 15m may open for shorter periods; monitor for brief DX windows, especially around local noon.
• 80m and 40m are better at night for regional and some DX, but expect higher noise and fading during the day.
• Try digital modes (FT8, PSK31) on marginal bands like 15m and 17m to take advantage of weak signal propagation.
• Keep antennas tuned and check for sudden band openings, especially after sunset or during grayline periods.
• For contesting, prioritize 20m and 40m for rate, and check 17m/15m for multipliers.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Best after local sunset through sunrise for regional and some DX.
• 20m: Opens after sunrise, peaks late morning through afternoon, remains good into early evening.
• 17m & 15m: Midday to late afternoon for possible short/medium skip and some DX.
• 12m & 10m: Largely closed, but check during local noon for sporadic E or brief openings.
• Grayline (dawn/dusk): Enhanced propagation on 40m and 20m for long-path DX.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m offers the best chance for intercontinental DX, especially along the grayline.
• 17m/15m may open to equatorial and southern latitudes during midday; watch for short-lived DX paths.
• 40m supports transcontinental and some DX at night, especially during low geomagnetic activity.
• Grayline: Target sunrise/sunset for enhanced propagation to antipodal regions.
• No significant aurora or polar path enhancements expected; VHF aurora unlikely.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

The 20m band is currently the most reliable for both local and DX contacts throughout the day and into the evening. 17m and 15m offer fair conditions, mainly during midday and early afternoon, but expect shorter openings. 80m and 40m are best used at night for regional work, with limited DX potential. 12m and 10m remain mostly closed due to low solar flux and sunspot numbers; check for brief openings during high solar activity or sporadic E.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 – Indicates quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions; minor disturbances possible but overall stable HF propagation.
• Solar Flux: 109 – Slightly below average, supporting fair conditions on mid/high HF bands but limiting 12m/10m openings.
• Sunspot Number: 105 – Moderate, enough for decent propagation on 20m and some activity on 17m/15m.
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares or disturbances reported; X-ray flux at B3.5 (low), so risk of HF blackouts is minimal.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has remained mostly stable over the past 24 hours, fluctuating between 2 and 3, indicating quiet to slightly unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
• No significant geomagnetic storms or auroral activity are expected, so HF propagation should remain stable, especially on lower and mid bands.
• If the K-index rises above 4, expect increased absorption and fading, especially on polar and high-latitude paths.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B3.5 (low) – Minimal risk of sudden ionospheric disturbances or HF blackouts.
• Solar Wind: 462 km/s – Slightly elevated, but not high enough to trigger major geomagnetic storms; minor fluctuations possible.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux at 2340 and proton flux at 152 – Both within normal ranges; no significant impact on HF propagation.
• Aurora Activity: 2 (very low) – Unlikely to affect VHF/UHF propagation or cause auroral openings.
• Helium Line: 110.6 – Indicates stable solar output; no major changes in solar activity trends.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show a declining trend in both solar flux and sunspot numbers, with solar flux dropping from the 130s in early summer to the 116 range currently. This trend is reflected in the reduced performance of higher HF bands (12m/10m). The 20m band remains resilient, while lower bands become more important as solar activity wanes.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect stable but average conditions to continue, with no major solar or geomagnetic disturbances forecast.
• 20m will remain the best band for DX and reliable contacts.
• 17m/15m may open for short periods, especially during local noon.
• 80m/40m will be best at night for regional and some DX.
• No alerts or warnings for HF or VHF operators at this time. Continue to monitor for sudden solar events, but no significant disruptions are anticipated.