Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is shaped by moderate solar activity and low geomagnetic disturbance. The solar flux is at 106 and the sunspot number is 51, both on the lower side compared to earlier this year, which means higher bands (12m, 10m) are mostly closed or poor, while lower and mid bands (20m, 40m, 80m) offer the best opportunities. The K-index is low, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions and generally stable propagation, especially for north-south paths. Expect good evening/nighttime conditions on 40m and 80m, and daytime reliability on 20m. Operators should focus on lower bands for DX and digital modes for marginal openings.

💡 Operator Tips:

• Prioritize 20m, 40m, and 80m for reliable contacts; 20m is the best all-day performer.
• Use FT8, FT4, and CW to maximize weak signal work, especially on higher bands.
• For DX, target grayline periods (sunrise/sunset) on 40m and 20m.
• Monitor 17m and 15m for short, sporadic openings—be ready to switch quickly.
• Check cluster spots for rare DX on 12m/10m, but expect limited activity.
• Vertical antennas and low-noise receive setups will help on lower bands during the night.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 20m is the most consistent performer all day and night.
• 40m and 80m improve significantly after sunset, offering the best DX potential at night.
• 17m and 15m may provide brief, fair openings—watch for short-lived DX paths, especially midday.
• 12m and 10m are mostly closed due to low solar flux; only local or sporadic E may be possible.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline: Best DX on 40m and 20m during local sunrise and sunset—target east-west paths.
• 20m: Remains open for intercontinental contacts most of the day; check for long-path openings around sunrise.
• 17m/15m: Watch for short, midday DX windows—especially to equatorial and southern latitudes.
• Low Bands (80m/40m): Nighttime DX is strong, especially with low geomagnetic activity; try for transcontinental and polar paths.
• Aurora: Low auroral activity (Aurora index 2) means minimal VHF enhancement for northern operators.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

• Best bands: 20m is the most reliable for both local and DX contacts at all times. 40m and 80m shine at night and evening, offering strong regional and DX paths.
• Marginal bands: 17m and 15m may open briefly, especially midday, but expect only fair conditions.
• Worst bands: 12m and 10m are largely closed due to low solar flux and sunspot numbers.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2 — Indicates quiet geomagnetic conditions; good for stable HF propagation, especially on polar and high-latitude paths.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 106 — Slightly below average; limits higher band openings but supports 20m and below.
• Sunspot Number: 51 — Lower than previous months, reducing ionization and MUF (Maximum Usable Frequency).
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux is at B4.7 (quiet), and solar wind is moderate.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has remained low and stable over the past 24 hours, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions. No recent spikes or disturbances have been observed, so expect minimal absorption and stable propagation, especially on low and mid bands. This is ideal for night-time DX and polar paths.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B4.7 (low)—No risk of HF blackouts or sudden ionospheric disturbances.
• Solar Wind: 424.6 km/s—Moderate; not enough to trigger geomagnetic storms, so conditions remain stable.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux 2100, Proton flux 33—Both at safe levels; no increased D-layer absorption or polar cap absorption events.
• Aurora Activity: 2—Very low; VHF/UHF auroral propagation is not expected.
• Helium Line: 106.2—Consistent with current solar flux, indicating no major trend changes.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past several months, solar flux and sunspot numbers have declined from their springtime highs (solar flux peaked at 138 in June, now down to 106; sunspots from 101.8 to 51). This trend explains the reduced MUF and closure of higher HF bands.
• Expect continued reliability on 20m and below, with only brief, marginal openings on 17m and 15m.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Solar and geomagnetic activity are expected to remain low and stable over the next three days.
• 20m, 40m, and 80m will continue to provide the best opportunities for both local and DX contacts.
• High bands (12m/10m) are likely to remain poor or closed unless a sudden solar uptick occurs.
• No alerts or warnings are in effect—enjoy steady conditions, especially for contesting and DXing on the lower bands!