Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is showing moderate conditions, with solar flux at 119 and sunspot numbers at 69, both slightly below recent months’ averages. Geomagnetic activity is low (K-index at 2), so bands are relatively stable, but the drop in solar flux and sunspots over the past months means higher bands (12m, 10m) are underperforming. Expect best results on 20m and 40m, with 80m and 15m offering fair opportunities, especially at night. DX is possible, but high bands will be challenging—focus on lower bands for reliable contacts.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use 20m and 40m for daytime and evening DX—these bands are the most reliable under current solar conditions.
• Digital modes (FT8, PSK31) will outperform SSB/CW on marginal bands like 17m and 15m.
• For local/regional QSOs, 80m and 40m at night are your best bet.
• Monitor grayline times for enhanced DX, especially on 40m and 20m.
• Keep an eye on the K-index—if it rises, expect more noise and fading.
• Antenna tuning: Lower bands may benefit from NVIS setups for regional work; higher bands need directional antennas for any chance at DX.

⏰ Best Operating Times

Analysis:

• 20m is the most consistent performer throughout the day and night—ideal for DX and long-haul contacts.
• 40m and 80m improve after sunset, supporting reliable regional and some DX work.
• 15m and 17m are marginal; try digital modes for best results.
• 12m and 10m are generally closed—only attempt during brief openings or with strong solar events.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Best DX paths: 20m and 40m during local sunrise/sunset (grayline) for transcontinental contacts.
• Grayline enhancement: Focus on 40m/20m at dawn/dusk for improved signal strength to antipodal regions.
• Limited high-band DX: 15m/17m may open briefly to equatorial and southern latitudes, but expect weak signals.
• Aurora activity is low, so VHF/UHF auroral propagation is not expected.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Current best bands: 20m is the standout for all-day operation, with 40m and 80m coming alive at night. 15m and 17m may support short openings, especially for digital modes. 12m and 10m are mostly closed—check for sporadic-E or brief solar upticks, but don’t expect much.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2 (low geomagnetic activity)—quiet conditions, minimal absorption or noise.
• Solar Flux: 119 (moderate, but trending downward)—supports reliable propagation on 20m and below, but limits higher bands.
• Sunspot Number: 69 (lower than recent months)—reflects the current solar lull, reducing MUF and high-band openings.
• Space Weather Overview:
  • X-ray flux: C1.7 (minor flare activity—no major blackouts expected)
  • Solar wind: 377.9 km/s (average, not likely to trigger geomagnetic storms)
  • Aurora: 2 (very low, no auroral propagation expected)

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend: Stable and low over the past 24 hours—no significant geomagnetic disturbances.
• Impact: Quiet geomagnetic field means low noise and stable propagation, especially on lower bands. No shortwave fadeouts or auroral effects anticipated.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: C1.7 indicates minor solar flare activity; unlikely to cause HF blackouts, but keep an ear out for sudden fades.
• Solar Wind Speed: 377.9 km/s is moderate; not enough to disturb geomagnetic conditions.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 2940 (moderate)—no significant impact on HF, but can cause minor noise on VHF.
  • Proton Flux: 19 (quiet)—no polar cap absorption events expected.
• Aurora Activity: 2 (very low)—no auroral propagation for VHF/UHF.
• Helium Line: 108.1—suggests steady, moderate solar output; no major changes expected soon.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent solar flux and sunspot trends: Both have declined steadily since June, with solar flux dropping from ~138 to 105 and sunspots from ~94 to 60. This trend explains the current weakness of high bands (12m/10m) and the reliability of lower frequencies.
• Historical context: The sun is in a quiet phase of the cycle, so expect continued emphasis on 20m and below for the coming weeks.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect continued moderate solar activity—no major flares or geomagnetic storms forecast.
• HF propagation will remain best on 20m, 40m, and 80m, with 15m/17m offering occasional openings.
• High bands (12m/10m) will stay mostly closed unless a solar uptick occurs.
• No alerts or warnings—enjoy the stable conditions, but keep monitoring for any sudden solar changes.