Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is showing moderate conditions, with solar flux at 100–105 and a sunspot number around 58–60. This means 20m is your most reliable band for both day and night, while higher bands like 12m and 10m are mostly closed or poor. Geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K-index 3), so expect some mild absorption, especially at higher latitudes. Low bands (80m/40m) are poor during the day but improve to fair at night. For best results, focus on 20m and 17m, and keep an eye on grayline openings for DX.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m and 17m for reliable contacts, especially for DX and general QSOs.
• 80m and 40m will be noisy and weak during the day, but may support regional contacts after dark.
• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) to maximize weak signal work, especially on higher bands.
• Vertical antennas and low-noise receive setups will help on the low bands during noisy periods.
• For contesting or DX, target grayline periods and be ready for short-lived openings on 15m.
• Monitor space weather alerts for sudden changes, especially if solar wind or X-ray activity increases.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best after sunset through early morning (nighttime)
• 20m: Good all day and into the evening
• 17m/15m: Fair during daylight, especially late morning to afternoon
• 12m/10m: Poor/closed most of the day; check for brief openings during peak solar hours

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m is the main DX band—look for long-path and grayline openings, especially east-west.
• 17m/15m may support intercontinental contacts late morning and early afternoon.
• Grayline: Enhanced propagation at sunrise/sunset—watch for short DX windows on all bands.
• Aurora: Moderate activity (Aurora index 3) could bring VHF/UHF auroral propagation in northern latitudes.
• No major special events or alerts, but monitor for sudden X-ray spikes (C1.0 class currently).

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m is the most consistent performer throughout the day and night, making it the go-to band for both local and DX contacts. 17m and 15m offer fair conditions, especially during daylight hours, but may not support long-haul DX. 80m and 40m are only usable at night and even then, expect fair but not excellent results. 12m and 10m are largely closed due to low solar flux and sunspot numbers—check occasionally for sporadic E or brief openings.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 (quiet to unsettled)—minor geomagnetic disturbances, little impact on most HF paths but could affect polar and auroral regions.
• Solar Flux: 100–105 (moderate)—supports reliable 20m/17m propagation, but not enough for regular 10m/12m openings.
• Sunspot Number: 58–60 (declining)—reflects the downward trend in solar activity, limiting high-band propagation.
• Space Weather: No major flares, but X-ray flux at C1.0 indicates some solar activity; monitor for sudden increases.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend: Stable to slightly unsettled (mostly 2–3 over the past 24 hours).
• Impact: Conditions are not stormy, so absorption is moderate. No major disruptions expected, but higher latitude paths may see occasional fading.
• Outlook: If K-index rises, expect more absorption and possible auroral effects on VHF/UHF.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: C1.0—moderate solar flare activity; unlikely to cause HF blackouts, but keep an ear out for sudden fadeouts.
• Solar Wind: 559 km/s—elevated speed can stir up geomagnetic activity, especially if the magnetic field turns southward.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux (1820) and proton flux (680) are both moderate; may cause minor noise on HF, especially at higher latitudes.
• Aurora: Index 3—moderate auroral activity; VHF/UHF operators in the north may see auroral propagation, but not widespread.
• Helium Line: 104.7—stable solar activity; no major trend changes detected.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show a declining trend in both solar flux and sunspot numbers, from a peak in June/July (solar flux ~138, SSN ~94) to current values (solar flux ~105, SSN ~60). This downward trend is limiting high-band propagation and making low bands more important for reliable contacts.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Propagation will remain moderate with no major improvements expected.
• 20m and 17m will continue to be the best HF bands for most regions.
• Monitor K-index: Any increase could further degrade high-latitude and polar paths.
• No major solar storms or alerts forecast, but keep an eye on real-time updates for sudden changes.
• VHF/UHF: Possible auroral activity in the north, but no widespread openings expected.

Stay flexible, focus on the best bands, and enjoy the hunt for those rare openings!