Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is shaped by moderate solar activity and quiet geomagnetic conditions. The solar flux is currently at 107 (recently trending higher), and the sunspot number is at 70, supporting decent conditions on the lower and mid bands. K-index is low, meaning geomagnetic disturbances are minimal and band noise is reduced. Expect good performance on 20m and 40m, with higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) less reliable except for occasional short openings. Operators should focus on the classic bands for reliable contacts and watch for brief DX windows on higher frequencies.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m and 40m for daytime and evening operations; these bands offer the most consistent propagation today.
• Digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) are recommended, especially on higher bands where SSB/CW may struggle.
• Monitor grayline for enhanced DX, especially on 40m and 80m at sunrise/sunset.
• Check 15m and 17m during local noon for possible short DX openings; be ready to switch quickly.
• Use low-noise antennas and consider preamps for weak-signal work, particularly on higher bands.
• Contesters: Focus on 20m and 40m for rate; try 80m at night for regional multipliers.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning; good for regional and some DX.
• 20m: Good all day, peaking mid-morning to late afternoon.
• 17m/15m: Fair around midday; check for short-lived DX paths.
• 12m/10m: Poor overall, but check during solar peak hours for sporadic E or brief F-layer openings.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline DX: Enhanced paths on 40m and 80m at local sunrise/sunset—watch for transcontinental signals.
• 20m: Offers the broadest DX window, especially east-west paths during daylight.
• 15m/17m: Possible short DX to equatorial and low-latitude regions around local noon.
• Aurora: Low risk today (Aurora Index: 1), so VHF auroral propagation is unlikely.
• Special Events: No major space weather alerts—watch for surprise openings on higher bands.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

The best bands today are 20m (good all day and evening) and 40m/80m (good at night and early morning). 17m and 15m are fair, mainly around midday. 12m and 10m are poor and likely closed for most operators, but check for brief openings during peak solar hours.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2 (very quiet) — Low geomagnetic activity means stable, low-noise HF conditions.
• Solar Flux: 107 (recent value; trend has been higher, now slightly lower) — Supports decent F-layer propagation, especially on 20m and 40m.
• Sunspot Number: 70 — Moderate; enough for reliable mid-band propagation, but not enough for consistent 10m/12m openings.
• Space Weather: No major flares or disturbances reported.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend: Stable and low over the past 24 hours, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions.
• Impact: Low K-index means minimal auroral absorption and low band noise, favoring HF propagation, especially on 40m and 80m.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B9.9 — Low-level X-ray flux; no risk of HF blackouts.
• Solar Wind Speed: 477.9 km/s — Slightly elevated but not enough to trigger geomagnetic storms.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 1900 — Slightly elevated; can cause minor polar absorption but not a major concern.
  • Proton Flux: 390 — Quiet; no significant impact on HF.
• Aurora: 1 — Very low; auroral propagation on VHF/UHF is not expected.
• Helium Line: 108.8 — Indicates stable solar activity; no rapid changes expected.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent Solar Flux Trend: Solar flux has fluctuated between 120-151 over the past 6 months, with a recent dip to 107. This suggests we are in a moderate phase of the solar cycle, with some variability but no extremes.
• Sunspot Trend: Sunspot numbers have ranged from 77 to 115 recently, supporting reliable mid-band HF but limiting high-band activity.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• HF Conditions: Expect continued good propagation on 20m and 40m, with 80m strong at night. 17m and 15m may improve if solar flux rises, but 12m/10m will remain challenging.
• Geomagnetic Activity: K-index forecast remains low; no major disturbances expected.
• VHF/UHF: No auroral or enhanced propagation events predicted.
• Operator Recommendations: Focus on 20m/40m for DX and reliable contacts. Monitor solar data for any uptick that could briefly open higher bands. Digital modes will outperform voice/CW on marginal bands. No alerts or warnings for HF operations at this time.