Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary:
Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and very quiet geomagnetic conditions. The solar flux is steady near 136, and the sunspot number is moderate at 78, but higher bands (20m and up) are underperforming due to low ionization. K-index is at 0, indicating very stable geomagnetic conditions, which is great for lower band operation. Expect best results on 80m and 40m, with higher bands (20m–10m) mostly closed or poor. For reliable contacts, stick to the lower bands and plan for mostly regional or near-continental QSOs.

💡 Operator Tips

• Focus your efforts on 80m and 40m for both day and night—these bands are open and stable.
• Use digital modes (FT8, PSK31) on higher bands if you want to try for rare openings, but don’t expect much above 20m.
• CW and SSB will work well on 80m/40m, especially for nets, ragchews, and regional DX.
• For DXers: Watch for brief grayline enhancements on 40m and 80m.
• Contesters: Concentrate activity on lower bands, as upper bands are unlikely to yield multipliers.
• Keep antennas for 80m/40m in top shape and consider using directional antennas for best results.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: All day and night—especially strong during local evening and night.
• 20m/17m/15m/12m/10m: Poor throughout the day and night; check at local noon for any brief improvement.
• Grayline periods (sunrise/sunset): Best chance for DX on 40m and 80m.
• VHF/UHF: No significant auroral or E-skip activity expected.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline propagation: Look for enhanced paths on 40m and 80m during sunrise and sunset, especially toward east-west paths.
• DX on higher bands is unlikely; any openings will be fleeting and best caught with digital modes.
• No major space weather events or aurora to drive VHF/UHF DX.
• Focus on regional and near-continental DX on 80m/40m, with occasional longer hops possible during grayline.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
80m and 40m are the workhorse bands today, providing reliable propagation at all hours. 20m and above are largely closed due to insufficient ionization, despite moderate solar flux. If you’re chasing DX or contest multipliers, stick to 80m/40m and monitor for grayline enhancements. The higher bands (17m–10m) are not expected to open, but digital mode operators may want to check for rare, short-lived paths.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 0 — Extremely quiet geomagnetic field, excellent for stable HF propagation, especially on lower bands.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 136 — Moderate, but not enough to fully open higher HF bands.
• Sunspot Number: 78 — Moderate, supporting lower band activity but not sufficient for robust upper band propagation.
• Space Weather Overview: No significant flares or disturbances; X-ray flux is low (B2.4), indicating minimal risk of radio blackouts.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend: Stable at 0 for the past 24 hours, indicating no geomagnetic storms or disturbances.
• Impact: Excellent for noise-free operation on 80m and 40m. No absorption or auroral effects expected.
• Outlook: Continued quiet conditions, supporting reliable propagation on lower bands.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B2.4 (very low)—no risk of HF blackouts or sudden ionospheric disturbances.
• Solar Wind Speed: 267.5 km/s—well below storm thresholds, so geomagnetic field remains stable.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux at 1240 (moderate), proton flux at 93 (quiet)—no significant impact on HF propagation.
• Aurora Activity: 1 (very low)—no auroral propagation for VHF/UHF; northern operators will not see aurora-related enhancements.
• Helium Line: 108.9—suggests stable solar output; no major changes in solar activity trend.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Historical solar flux has remained steady in the 130–138 range over the past 6 months, with sunspot numbers trending downward from a recent peak.
• Sunspot numbers have dropped from 101.5 in May to 78.1 in July, reflecting a slight easing in solar activity.
• Implication: The current solar environment favors lower band operation, with little support for higher HF bands.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Propagation is expected to remain stable with quiet geomagnetic conditions and moderate solar flux.
• 80m and 40m will continue to be the best choices for reliable QSOs.
• No alerts or warnings for space weather or geomagnetic storms.
• Upper bands (20m–10m) will likely remain poor; check during local noon and grayline for any brief improvements, especially with digital modes.
• No VHF/UHF auroral or E-skip events expected.

Stay tuned to real-time spots and be ready for any surprise brief openings, but plan your operating around the lower HF bands for the best results!