Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation is currently in a transitional phase as solar activity continues its gradual decline from the recent solar maximum. The solar flux is moderate at 124, with a sunspot number of 89, supporting generally good conditions on the lower and mid bands, while higher bands (12m, 10m) are less reliable, especially at night. Geomagnetic activity is low (K=2), meaning stable conditions and minimal disturbances for most HF operations. Expect best results on 20m and 40m, with fair daytime openings on 15m and 17m. Operators should take advantage of the quiet geomagnetic field for DX, especially during grayline periods.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use 20m and 40m for reliable regional and DX contacts throughout the day and evening.
• Digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) are recommended on higher bands (17m, 15m, 12m, 10m) to maximize weak signal performance.
• For low-power (QRP) or portable ops, focus on nighttime 40m and 80m for best results.
• Monitor grayline times for enhanced DX, especially on 20m and 30m.
• Keep an ear on 10m/12m during local midday—brief openings may occur, especially for north-south paths.
• Contest and DXers: prioritize 20m for all-day activity and 40m/80m for night; check higher bands for sporadic openings.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning; fair during the day for regional contacts.
• 20m: Good all day and evening; best for DX around sunrise/sunset.
• 17m/15m: Fair during daylight hours, especially late morning to afternoon.
• 12m/10m: Fair at midday; mostly poor or closed at night.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline propagation is favorable on 20m and 30m—target sunrise/sunset for long-haul DX.
• Low geomagnetic activity means polar and trans-equatorial paths are open; try for Asia-Pacific and South America.
• Aurora activity is low, so high-latitude DX is possible on HF; VHF aurora is unlikely.
• Watch for sporadic-E on 10m/12m during local midday, especially for short-skip and north-south DX.
• Special event stations and rare DX are most workable on 20m and 40m during local evening and early morning.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:

• 20m is the most reliable band for both local and DX contacts throughout the day and evening.
• 40m and 80m provide good nighttime coverage, with fair conditions during daylight for regional work.
• 17m and 15m are open but only fair—expect some DX, especially midday, but signals may be weak.
• 12m and 10m offer fair conditions during daylight, but are mostly poor or closed at night; check for brief openings around noon.
• Best bands right now: 20m (all day/evening), 40m/80m (night).
• Higher bands (15m/12m/10m): Use digital modes and check midday for any short-lived openings.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2 (Low geomagnetic activity)
  • Stable conditions, minimal disruptions—great for HF propagation.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 124
  • Moderate level, supports good propagation on 20m and below, with some activity on higher bands.
• Sunspot Number: 89
  • Sustains ionization for HF, but lower than peak months—expect less robust 10m/12m openings.
• Space Weather Overview:
  • No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux is at B6.0 (quiet), so no HF blackouts expected.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend: Stable and low (K=2, A=6), with no significant spikes in the past 24 hours.
• Impact:
  • Quiet geomagnetic field means polar and high-latitude paths are open. No auroral disturbances—excellent for DX and contesting.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B6.0 (quiet)
  • No risk of sudden HF blackouts; conditions are stable for all modes.
• Solar Wind: 336 km/s (moderate)
  • No geomagnetic storms expected; supports stable propagation.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 2130 (elevated but not extreme)
    • Can cause mild absorption at high latitudes, but no major impact for most ops.
  • Proton Flux: 12 (quiet)
    • No proton events; HF/VHF not affected.
• Aurora Activity: 2 (very low)
  • No auroral propagation expected on VHF/UHF; northern HF paths remain open.
• Helium Line: 119.4
  • Moderate solar activity; trend is downward, so higher bands may continue to weaken over coming weeks.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent months:
  • Solar flux and sunspot numbers have declined steadily since June, with current values well below the recent solar max.
  • This trend means lower bands (20m and below) will dominate as we move further from solar peak.
  • Operators should expect fewer and shorter high-band (15m/12m/10m) openings as the trend continues.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect continued moderate solar flux and low geomagnetic activity.
• 20m and 40m will remain the most reliable bands for DX and regional work.
• 12m/10m openings will be limited and mostly confined to midday; check for brief sporadic-E events.
• No major space weather events or warnings are forecast—enjoy stable conditions for contests, DXpeditions, and casual operating.
• Monitor for sudden changes: If solar wind or K-index rises, expect possible short-term disruptions, especially on higher bands.