Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and a recent downward trend in solar flux and sunspot numbers. Expect good conditions on 20m during both day and night, while higher bands (17m, 15m) are only fair and 12m/10m are mostly poor. Low bands (80m, 40m) are struggling during the day but improve a bit at night. Elevated geomagnetic activity and a fast solar wind may cause some fading and shortwave disturbances, especially at higher latitudes. For best results, focus on 20m for DX and regional contacts, and check the grayline for enhanced openings.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m for both DX and local contacts; it’s the most reliable band today.
• Monitor 17m and 15m for possible short DX windows, especially around local noon.
• Nighttime is better for 40m and 80m—expect less noise and improved signals after sunset.
• Use digital modes (FT8, PSK, RTTY) on marginal bands (15m, 17m, 12m, 10m) to take advantage of weak openings.
• Keep an eye on the K-index and solar wind speed—if they spike, expect rapid changes or short-term blackouts.
• For contests or DXpeditions, timing and band selection are key: focus on 20m and watch for grayline enhancements.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best after sunset and through the night (Fair); avoid daytime (Poor).
• 20m: Good all day and night—prime for both local and DX.
• 17m/15m: Try late morning to early afternoon for Fair conditions.
• 12m/10m: Generally Poor; try midday for any brief openings, especially during solar upticks.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m offers the broadest DX window—look for grayline paths at sunrise/sunset for long-haul contacts.
• 17m/15m: Watch for short, sporadic DX openings around midday, especially on north-south paths.
• Grayline: Enhanced propagation possible on 40m/20m at dawn and dusk—target regions just entering/exiting daylight.
• Aurora: With low aurora activity, VHF/UHF auroral propagation is unlikely today.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

The 20m band is the top performer throughout the day and night, offering the most consistent propagation for both DX and local contacts. 17m and 15m may yield some contacts, especially during daylight hours, but expect only fair results. 80m and 40m are poor during the day but improve to fair at night—ideal for regional and NVIS work after sunset. 12m and 10m are largely closed; check for rare, brief midday openings, especially if solar activity increases.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 (moderate geomagnetic activity)—may cause some fading, especially at higher latitudes.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 109 (moderate, but trending lower)—limits higher band openings.
• Sunspot Number: 83 (moderate, but lower than previous months)—supports 20m, but not enough for strong high-band openings.
• Space Weather Overview: X-ray flux at B8.2 (quiet), no major flare activity, and a high solar wind speed (637.7 km/s) that could enhance geomagnetic disturbances.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has been fluctuating around 3, indicating moderate geomagnetic unrest over the past 24 hours.
• No major storms, but conditions are not fully quiet—expect occasional shortwave fadeouts or absorption, especially on polar and high-latitude paths.
• If the K-index rises further, expect more pronounced HF disruptions.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B8.2 level—quiet, so no significant HF blackouts expected.
• Solar Wind: 637.7 km/s—elevated speed can stir up the geomagnetic field, causing mild disturbances and possible auroral activity at high latitudes.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux (2270) and proton flux (132) are moderate; unlikely to cause major issues but may contribute to minor absorption.
• Aurora Activity: Level 2—low, so auroral propagation on VHF/UHF is unlikely today.
• Helium Line: 107.3—stable, indicating no major solar trend changes at the moment.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• The last several months show a steady decline in solar flux (from 160+ down to 120) and sunspot numbers (from 124 to 79), which explains the drop-off in high-band (15m/12m/10m) propagation.
• 20m remains resilient due to its lower frequency and is less affected by these moderate solar conditions.
• If solar flux or sunspot numbers rise again, expect rapid improvement on 17m, 15m, and even 10m.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect stable but modest conditions for the next three days, with 20m remaining the most reliable band.
• No major geomagnetic storms or solar flares are forecast, but keep monitoring the K-index for any sudden changes.
• DXers: Focus on 20m and monitor 17m/15m for short-lived openings.
• Contesters: Concentrate efforts on 20m, especially during grayline; use digital modes to maximize contacts on marginal bands.
• VHF/UHF: No significant auroral or E-skip activity expected—monitor for local enhancements only.