Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation is significantly degraded today due to a combination of high geomagnetic activity and only moderate solar flux. All HF bands from 80m to 10m are experiencing 🔴 Poor conditions throughout the day and night, with minimal chances for reliable long-distance contacts. The K-index is at a storm level, and auroral activity is elevated, further disrupting propagation. Operators should expect high noise levels, signal fading, and limited DX opportunities. For best results, focus on local or regional contacts and monitor for sudden improvements as geomagnetic conditions settle.

💡 Operator Tips:

• Use NVIS (Near Vertical Incidence Skywave) techniques for local/regional contacts, especially on 80m and 40m.
• Try digital modes like FT8 or JS8Call, which can decode weak signals under poor conditions.
• Lower your noise floor: use narrow filters, noise blankers, and check for local QRM.
• Avoid high-frequency bands (20m and above) for DX; instead, try 40m or 80m for short-haul comms.
• If you’re chasing DX, monitor for brief openings around grayline and after geomagnetic storms subside.

⏰ Best Operating Times

Right now, no HF band is performing well at any time of day. If you must operate, 40m and 80m may offer the best shot at local contacts, especially using digital modes. Higher bands (20m and up) are mostly closed for DX.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• DX is extremely limited due to high geomagnetic disturbance and poor band conditions.
• Grayline openings are unlikely to produce much DX, but check 40m and 80m at sunrise/sunset for short, weak openings.
• Auroral activity may allow for rare auroral propagation on VHF/UHF for northern operators.
• Watch for rapid improvement after the geomagnetic storm passes—keep an ear out for sudden band openings.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

All HF bands (80m–10m) are under severe geomagnetic stress and are rated 🔴 Poor for all time periods. 80m and 40m may still support some local QSOs, especially with digital modes, but expect high noise and fading. 20m and above are essentially closed for DX and even regional contacts.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index (geomagnetic activity): 6 (Severe geomagnetic storm; expect major HF disruptions, high noise, and signal absorption)
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 126 (Moderate; enough for propagation under normal geomagnetic conditions, but currently overwhelmed by storm activity)
• Sunspot Number: 99 (Healthy sunspot count, but not enough to offset geomagnetic storm effects)
• Space weather overview: Despite decent solar flux and sunspot numbers, the high K-index dominates, causing widespread HF blackout conditions.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has spiked to 6 over the past 24 hours, indicating a strong geomagnetic storm.
• This is a worsening trend compared to previous days, likely due to a recent solar wind shock or CME impact.
• Expect continued HF disruption until the K-index drops below 4.
• Aurora activity is elevated, especially at higher latitudes.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: C1.5 (Elevated; minor risk of short HF blackouts, especially on sunlit paths)
• Solar Wind: 690 km/s (Very high; increases geomagnetic disturbance and absorption)
• Particle Environment: Electron flux at 2590 and proton flux at 126—both elevated, leading to further HF absorption and noise.
• Aurora Activity: 9 (High; auroral propagation possible on VHF/UHF for northern stations, but HF blackout risk increases)
• Helium Line: 112.5 (Indicates active solar regions, but not enough to counteract geomagnetic storm effects)
• Practical impact: Expect HF blackouts, high noise, and rapid fading. VHF/UHF auroral propagation possible for those in northern latitudes.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Solar flux and sunspot numbers have been trending downward over the past few months, from a peak in June/July (SFI ~138, SSN ~94) to current values (SFI ~105, SSN ~60).
• This downward trend, combined with today’s geomagnetic storm, means propagation is at its worst in recent months.
• No significant improvement is expected until geomagnetic conditions stabilize.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect continued poor HF conditions for the next 24–48 hours as the geomagnetic storm persists.
• Watch for rapid improvement once the K-index drops below 4—bands may recover quickly, especially 20m and 17m.
• Monitor space weather alerts for updates; be ready for brief, unpredictable band openings.
• VHF/UHF operators in northern latitudes: watch for auroral propagation opportunities.
• Digital modes remain your best bet for making contacts during this stormy period.