Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary:
HF propagation is currently moderate due to a solar flux of around 90-105 and a sunspot number near 36-60, which is lower than recent months. Geomagnetic conditions are very quiet (K-index 0-1), favoring stable propagation, especially on the lower bands. High bands (12m, 10m) are mostly closed or poor, but 20m and 40m are performing well, especially at night. Expect reliable regional and some DX contacts on 20m and 40m, with best results during local evening and night. Operators should focus on lower bands for consistent results and watch for brief daytime openings on 17m and 15m.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m and 40m for both daytime and nighttime operations—these bands are currently the most reliable for DX and regional contacts.
• Try digital modes (FT8, PSK31, RTTY) on higher bands (15m, 17m, 12m) to take advantage of marginal openings.
• Monitor grayline times at sunrise and sunset for enhanced long-path DX, especially on 40m and 20m.
• Use low-noise antennas and check for local QRM, as quiet geomagnetic conditions can reveal weak signals.
• VHF/UHF: Little to no enhanced propagation expected; focus on HF for best results.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning for both local and DX contacts.
• 20m: Open most of the day and night, with peak DX around sunrise and sunset.
• 17m/15m: Fair during daylight hours, especially late morning to afternoon.
• 12m/10m: Poor throughout the day; check for brief sporadic-E or solar-driven openings around local noon.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline paths on 40m and 20m are your best bet for long-haul DX, especially toward sunrise/sunset.
• 20m supports transcontinental and some intercontinental paths most of the day.
• 17m/15m may offer short-lived DX windows midday—watch cluster spots and be ready to pounce.
• Aurora activity is low, so northern VHF/UHF auroral propagation is unlikely.
• No major special events or alerts, but keep an ear on the bands for surprise openings.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:

• 20m is the most consistent performer, good all day and night—ideal for DX and reliable QSOs.
• 40m and 80m are good at night and early morning, best for regional and some DX.
• 17m and 15m are fair—worth checking during daylight, especially for digital modes.
• 12m and 10m are mostly poor—not recommended unless a sudden opening is observed.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 0-1 (very quiet) — minimal geomagnetic disturbance, stable HF conditions.
• Solar Flux: 90-105 (moderate, but lower than recent months) — supports mid-band propagation, but limits high-band openings.
• Sunspot Number: 36-60 (declining) — indicates lower solar activity, which reduces MUF and high-band performance.
• Space Weather: No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux is low (B2.7).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has remained very low (0-1) over the past 24 hours, indicating stable geomagnetic conditions.
• No recent geomagnetic storms or disturbances—conditions are improving compared to any prior unsettled periods.
• This favors lower noise and better propagation on all HF bands, especially for nighttime operations.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B2.7 (very low)—no risk of HF blackouts; expect stable conditions.
• Solar Wind Speed: 372.8 km/s (moderate)—no significant impact on geomagnetic activity.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux 2600 (moderate), proton flux 40 (quiet)—no major effects on HF propagation.
• Aurora Activity: 4 (very low)—no auroral propagation expected; VHF/UHF paths remain normal.
• Helium Line: 104.1 (stable)—no major solar trend changes detected.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show a declining trend in both solar flux and sunspot numbers:

• Solar flux dropped from ~138 in June to ~105 now.
• Sunspot numbers have decreased from over 100 to around 60.
• This trend means the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower, reducing high-band (15m, 12m, 10m) openings, but lower bands (40m, 20m) remain reliable.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Solar activity expected to remain low to moderate; no major flares or disturbances forecast.
• K-index likely to stay quiet (0-2), supporting stable HF propagation.
• Best bands: 20m, 40m, and 80m (especially at night); 17m/15m may offer brief daytime openings.
• Worst bands: 12m and 10m—expect minimal activity.
• No warnings or alerts for HF or VHF operators; continue to monitor for sudden solar events, but stable conditions should persist.