Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary:
HF propagation today is shaped by moderate solar activity and very quiet geomagnetic conditions. The solar flux is at 92 (recently trending downward), and the sunspot number is 38, both on the lower side for this solar cycle. Expect good performance on 20m throughout the day and night, while higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) remain mostly closed or poor. 80m and 40m will provide fair to good local and regional contacts, especially at night. With the K-index at 1 and no geomagnetic disturbances, operators can expect stable conditions with minimal fading or noise.

💡 Operator Tips

• Focus your efforts on 20m for reliable daytime and nighttime DX and ragchews.
• 40m and 80m are your best choices for evening and night operations, especially for NVIS and regional work.
• 15m, 12m, and 10m are unlikely to open except for very short, sporadic E or local contacts—monitor but don’t expect much.
• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) to maximize weak signal opportunities, especially on higher bands.
• For DXers: watch for grayline enhancements on 20m and 40m.
• Keep antennas optimized for lower bands; verticals and dipoles will perform well under current conditions.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning for local/regional QSOs.
• 20m: Good all day and night for both local and DX contacts.
• 17m/15m: Fair during midday; check around local noon for any short openings.
• 12m/10m: Poor/closed most of the day; check occasionally for brief openings, especially during solar events or sporadic E.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m is the go-to band for DX, especially along the grayline at sunrise and sunset.
• 40m may offer DX paths during local evening and early morning.
• Grayline propagation will be most pronounced on 20m and 40m—plan your DX attempts around these times.
• No significant aurora or polar path enhancements expected; VHF/UHF auroral propagation is not likely.
• Watch for short, unexpected openings on 17m and 15m, but keep expectations modest.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:

• 20m is the most reliable band for both day and night, supporting both DX and domestic contacts.
• 40m and 80m are best at night and early morning, with fair daytime performance.
• 17m and 15m offer only fair conditions, mainly around midday—worth checking but not dependable.
• 12m and 10m are largely closed due to low solar flux and sunspot numbers; only monitor for rare, brief openings.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 1 (very quiet)
  • Indicates minimal geomagnetic disturbance; expect stable HF conditions with low noise and fading.
• Solar Flux: 92
  • Below average for good high-band propagation; supports 20m and lower bands, but 15m+ will struggle.
• Sunspot Number: 38
  • Low sunspot count means limited ionization, especially for higher bands (12m/10m).
• Space Weather Overview:
  • No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux at B3.3 (quiet), solar wind speed is low (315 km/s), and aurora activity is minimal.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has remained low and stable over the past 24 hours, with no significant spikes.
• This trend of quiet geomagnetic conditions means excellent stability for HF propagation, especially on lower bands.
• No geomagnetic storms or disturbances are expected, so band conditions should remain consistent.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B3.3 (quiet)
  • No risk of HF blackouts; expect normal D-layer absorption.
• Solar Wind: 315.2 km/s
  • Low speed, contributing to stable geomagnetic conditions and minimal auroral activity.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron flux (1410) and proton flux (174) are at background levels; no significant impact on propagation.
• Aurora Activity: 1
  • Very low; no auroral propagation expected on VHF/UHF.
• Helium Line: 104.9
  • Stable; no indication of rising solar activity in the immediate future.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past several months, solar flux has steadily declined from spring highs (138) to the current value (92–105).
• Sunspot numbers have also decreased, from over 100 in early summer to around 60 now.
• This downward trend explains the weaker performance on higher HF bands and highlights the need to focus on 20m and lower frequencies.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect continued quiet geomagnetic conditions and low solar activity.
• 20m will remain the most reliable band for both local and DX work.
• 40m and 80m will continue to provide good nighttime and early morning propagation.
• 15m, 12m, and 10m are likely to stay poor/closed unless a sudden solar event occurs.
• No alerts or warnings are in effect; stable conditions are expected for all HF operations.