Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary

Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and unsettled geomagnetic conditions. With a solar flux around 130 and sunspot numbers in the low 40s, higher HF bands (20m–15m) are performing well during daylight, while 12m and 10m are more variable. The K-index has hovered between 2 and 4 over the past 24 hours, indicating some geomagnetic disturbance, which may cause occasional fading or absorption, especially on polar and high-latitude paths. Best results will be found on 20m, 17m, and 15m during the day, while 80m and 40m are only fair at night. Watch for short-lived DX openings on 10m and 12m, especially during local midday.

💡 Operator Tips

• Focus on 20m, 17m, and 15m for reliable daytime DX and regional contacts.
• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, RTTY) to punch through marginal conditions, especially on 12m and 10m.
• For low bands (80m, 40m), operate at night for best results—expect higher noise and fading during the day.
• If you’re chasing DX, check grayline times for enhanced long-path opportunities.
• Monitor real-time K-index and solar data—sudden geomagnetic spikes may quickly degrade HF, so be ready to QSY.
• Portable and mobile operators: deploy resonant antennas and consider band-pass filters to maximize weak-signal performance.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Best after local sunset through sunrise; avoid midday.
• 20m, 17m, 15m: Peak from late morning through late afternoon; still usable into early evening.
• 12m & 10m: Try late morning to early afternoon for any F-layer openings; expect rapid changes.
• Grayline (dawn/dusk): Enhanced propagation on all bands, especially for long-haul DX.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Daytime: 20m, 17m, and 15m are open for intercontinental DX, especially on east-west paths.
• Grayline: Look for improved signals to antipodal regions; check 40m and 20m at sunrise/sunset.
• Polar paths: May be affected by unsettled geomagnetic conditions—expect some absorption or flutter.
• 10m/12m: Watch for sporadic short-path DX, especially to equatorial and low-latitude regions around midday.
• Aurora: Moderate aurora activity may enhance VHF propagation in northern latitudes—monitor 6m and 2m for auroral modes.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

The 20m, 17m, and 15m bands are your best bets for consistent contacts throughout the day and into the evening, with good potential for DX. 12m and 10m may open for short periods, especially around midday, but expect variable results. 80m and 40m are largely closed during the day but become usable at night for regional and some DX contacts. For VHF, only minor aurora is present, so no major openings expected.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 (Unsettled)
  • Some geomagnetic disturbance; minor absorption and fading possible, especially on polar paths.
• Solar Flux: 130
  • Moderate; supports good daytime propagation on mid/high HF bands.
• Sunspot Number: 43
  • Lower than recent months, but still enough for decent F-layer activity.
• Space Weather Overview:
  • X-ray flux at B9.4 (quiet, no major flares), solar wind at 485 km/s (slightly elevated), and aurora index at 3 (minor activity).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

The K-index has fluctuated between 2 and 4 over the past 24 hours, with occasional unsettled periods. Conditions have been mostly stable with brief increases, but no major storms. This pattern suggests only minor disturbances—expect some QSB and absorption, especially on polar and high-latitude paths, but overall, geomagnetic activity is not severely limiting HF propagation.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B9.4 (quiet)—no HF blackouts expected; minimal impact on propagation.
• Solar Wind: 485.4 km/s—slightly elevated, which can contribute to unsettled geomagnetic conditions and minor absorption.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron flux: 2620 (moderate)—may cause mild degradation on polar paths.
  • Proton flux: 20 (quiet)—no significant impact.
• Aurora Activity: 3 (minor)—northern operators may see some auroral flutter on HF and possible aurora on VHF, but no major events.
• Helium Line: 126.8—stable, indicating no dramatic changes in solar activity trend.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show solar flux holding steady between 140–160 and sunspot numbers gradually declining from 130+ to just above 110. This slow decrease means HF propagation remains seasonally strong, but high bands (12m/10m) are less reliable than during peak months. No major solar events have disrupted the trend.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Solar and geomagnetic activity are expected to remain moderate.
• 20m, 17m, and 15m will continue to offer the best daytime DX opportunities.
• 12m and 10m may open briefly, especially if solar flux ticks upward or geomagnetic activity settles.
• Nighttime low-band conditions will remain fair, with some noise and absorption possible.
• No major space weather alerts are forecast, but keep an eye on real-time indices for sudden changes.
• VHF/UHF: Only minor aurora; no significant openings expected.