Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and a quiet geomagnetic field. The solar flux is at 110–116, and the sunspot number is 76–102, which supports decent conditions on the mid-bands, especially 20m. K-index is low, indicating stable geomagnetic conditions and minimal disturbance. Expect good propagation on 20m throughout the day and evening, while higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) are mostly poor. Lower bands (80m, 40m) will be more useful at night. For best results, focus on 20m for DX and 40m/80m for local/regional contacts after sunset.

💡 Operator Tips

• Target 20m for reliable daytime and evening DX; signals should be strong and stable.
• Try 17m and 15m during daylight for possible openings, but expect only fair results.
• 80m and 40m will perform best after sunset for regional and some longer-haul contacts—use these bands at night.
• Use digital modes (FT8, PSK31) to maximize weak signal work, especially on higher bands with marginal conditions.
• Monitor grayline periods for enhanced propagation, especially on 40m and 20m.
• Contesters and DXers: Focus efforts on 20m and 17m during the day, and 40m at night for best results.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning (Fair to Good)
• 20m: Good all day and evening
• 17m/15m: Fair during daylight hours, limited at night
• 12m/10m: Poor throughout; check for sporadic E or short-lived openings midday

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m band is the main DX workhorse today—expect solid intercontinental paths, especially east-west.
• Grayline enhancement: Watch for improved propagation on 40m and 20m around local sunrise and sunset.
• 17m/15m may offer brief DX windows during midday, especially to equatorial and southern latitudes.
• Aurora activity is low (Aurora = 3), so VHF/UHF auroral propagation is unlikely.
• No major space weather events—no alerts or warnings currently.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m is the most reliable band today, offering good conditions all day and into the evening. 17m and 15m are fair and may support some DX, especially during daylight. 80m and 40m are fair in the morning but improve to good at night, making them ideal for evening and overnight operation. 12m and 10m remain poor—expect little to no activity unless there is a surprise short opening.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 (low to moderate geomagnetic activity; stable HF conditions)
• Solar Flux: 110–116 (moderate; supports good 20m, fair 17m/15m)
• Sunspot Number: 76–102 (moderate; enough for mid-band propagation)
• Space Weather: No major flares or storms; X-ray flux at B5.4 (quiet)

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend: Stable and low (mostly at or below 3), indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours.
• Impact: Minimal geomagnetic disturbance—no major absorption or blackouts expected. Good for HF reliability, especially on 20m and below.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B5.4 (quiet; no HF blackouts expected)
• Solar Wind: 417 km/s (moderate; no significant impact on HF/VHF)
• Particle Environment: Electron flux at 35,700 (elevated, but not extreme—watch for minor polar absorption)
• Aurora Activity: 3 (low; auroral propagation on VHF/UHF unlikely)
• Helium Line: 110.3 (steady; no sign of major solar activity spikes)
• Practical Impact: No major disruptions; expect stable HF conditions with only minor variability.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent solar flux and sunspot trends:
  Over the past 6 months, solar flux has declined from ~138 (June) to ~116 (August/September), and sunspot numbers have dropped from ~100 to ~76. This means high bands (12m/10m) are less likely to open, but mid-bands (20m/17m/15m) remain viable.
• Long-term context:
  The current phase is post-maximum for Solar Cycle 25, with moderate activity sustaining 20m and 17m, but not enough for consistent 10m/12m openings.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Next 3 days: Expect similar conditions—quiet geomagnetic field, moderate solar flux, and stable HF propagation.
• Best bands: 20m (all day), 40m/80m (night), 17m/15m (daytime, fair)
• Worst bands: 12m/10m (poor)
• No alerts or warnings at this time—continue to monitor for sudden solar events, but stable operation is expected for the near term.