Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation is being impacted today by a combination of moderate solar activity and elevated geomagnetic disturbance. The solar flux is holding steady around 125–136, which is decent for HF, but a K-index of 5 and A-index of 26 signal unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions. Expect noisy bands and reduced long-haul DX, especially on the lower frequencies. The best chances for contacts are on the higher HF bands (15m and 17m) during daylight, while 80m–40m remain challenging. Operators should be alert for short-lived band openings and increased absorption, especially at higher latitudes.

💡 Operator Tips

• Focus your efforts on 15m and 17m during the day for the most reliable HF contacts.
• Use digital modes (FT8, JT65, PSK31) to punch through noise and fading, especially on weaker bands.
• Lower your noise floor: use tight filtering and noise reduction features.
• For DX, target grayline times and be ready for rapid QSB (fading).
• If contesting, work multipliers on higher bands early and check for sporadic E or short-path openings.
• VHF/UHF: Aurora is low, so expect typical summer conditions—no major auroral enhancement.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Limited, best at local sunset/sunrise, but overall poor today.
• 20m: Marginal all day; may open briefly around midday.
• 17m & 15m: Fair during daylight hours—your best bet for reliable QSOs.
• 12m & 10m: Fair only during peak solar hours (late morning to afternoon); closed at night.
• Nighttime: All bands except 80m/40m are mostly closed or poor.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline paths (dawn/dusk) may offer brief DX windows on 17m and 15m—watch for rapid changes.
• Equatorial and trans-equatorial paths may be more productive than polar routes due to geomagnetic disturbance.
• Short-path openings on 10m/12m possible for southern operators during local noon.
• No significant auroral or sporadic E events expected for VHF/UHF.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

The 17m and 15m bands are the most reliable today, offering fair conditions throughout the daylight hours and into the evening. 12m and 10m may open for short periods during the day but close quickly after sunset. 20m, 40m, and 80m are all suffering from high absorption and noise due to geomagnetic activity—expect poor conditions and limited range, especially for DX.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 5 (active) — Indicates geomagnetic storms, causing increased noise and absorption, especially on lower bands.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 125 (moderate) — Supports some higher band openings, but not enough for robust 10m/12m activity.
• Sunspot Number: 71 (moderate) — Sufficient for some HF propagation, but not at peak levels.
• Space Weather Overview: X-ray flux at C1.3 (minor flare activity), solar wind speed elevated at 570 km/s, electron flux high—these combine to create challenging HF conditions.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has been elevated (around 5) for the past 24 hours, indicating ongoing geomagnetic storm conditions.
• No signs of immediate improvement; conditions remain unstable.
• Expect continued high absorption, especially on polar and north-south paths, and increased fading (QSB).

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: C1.3 — Minor solar flare activity, but not enough for major HF blackouts. Watch for sudden short-term fades.
• Solar Wind: 570.1 km/s — Elevated speed increases geomagnetic disturbance, leading to more noise and absorption.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux 1640 (high), Proton flux 14 (elevated)—can cause additional absorption and noise, especially at higher latitudes.
• Aurora Activity: 2 — Low; no significant auroral propagation expected for VHF/UHF.
• Helium Line: 116.5 — Indicates moderate solar activity; no major trend shifts.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show solar flux fluctuating between 120 and 138, with sunspot numbers ranging from 77 to 101. This reflects a moderate but declining solar activity trend since early 2026, which limits the potential for strong high-band openings. Geomagnetic conditions have been unsettled, further reducing HF performance.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• HF propagation will remain challenging due to persistent geomagnetic activity.
• Expect continued fair conditions on 17m/15m during daylight, with only brief openings on 12m/10m.
• 80m/40m will stay poor for DX; local contacts may be possible with strong stations.
• No major improvements or severe warnings expected, but monitor for sudden solar events.
• Recommendation: Focus on higher HF bands during the day, use digital modes, and check grayline for best DX chances.