Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is showing mixed conditions due to moderate solar activity and slightly elevated geomagnetic indices. 20m is the standout band, offering good propagation day and night, while 17m and 15m are fair but may support some DX, especially during daylight. 80m and 40m are poor during the day but improve to fair at night, favoring local and regional contacts after sunset. High bands (12m and 10m) remain mostly poor due to lower solar flux and sunspot numbers. Expect some variability, especially if geomagnetic activity increases. For best results, focus on 20m and watch for brief openings on 15m and 17m.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m for both DX and reliable regional QSOs throughout the day and night.
• Try 17m and 15m during daylight for possible DX, especially using digital modes like FT8 or CW, which perform better in marginal conditions.
• 80m and 40m are best for local and regional contacts after dark; daytime conditions are poor.
• Use directional antennas and low-noise setups to maximize weak-signal performance, especially on higher bands.
• Monitor solar and geomagnetic updates for sudden changes—shortwave blackouts are unlikely today, but minor disturbances could still occur.
• For contesters: Focus on 20m for rate, and check 15m for multipliers during peak solar hours.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Best at night (sunset to sunrise)
• 20m: Good all day and night
• 17m & 15m: Best late morning to late afternoon
• 12m & 10m: Limited, watch for brief midday openings
• Grayline: Around sunrise and sunset, especially on 40m and 20m, for enhanced DX

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m is the primary DX band today—look for long-path and grayline openings, especially towards Asia and the Pacific in the early morning, and Europe/Africa in the afternoon/evening.
• 17m and 15m may open for intercontinental paths during peak solar hours—check for sporadic E or short-lived F2 propagation.
• Grayline enhancement is likely on 40m and 20m—target distant stations during your local sunrise and sunset.
• Aurora is low, so VHF/UHF auroral propagation is unlikely, but northern operators may see minor auroral flutter on HF.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m is the most reliable band today, with good conditions around the clock—ideal for both DX and domestic contacts. 17m and 15m are fair throughout the day and may support occasional DX, especially with digital modes. 80m and 40m are poor during daylight but improve to fair at night, favoring local/regional QSOs. 12m and 10m are largely closed or poor—expect little activity unless a brief opening occurs.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 (moderate geomagnetic activity)—may cause some HF fading, especially on polar paths.
• Solar Flux: 110 (moderate)—supports reliable 20m propagation, but higher bands (12m/10m) remain weak.
• Sunspot Number: 77 (declining from recent months)—reflects the current modest solar activity.
• Space Weather Overview: No significant flares or blackouts expected; X-ray background is at B4.0 (low).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has been moderate (around 3) over the past 24 hours, indicating some unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
• No major geomagnetic storms, but minor disturbances may cause short-term HF fading or auroral flutter, especially at higher latitudes.
• Trend is stable to slightly improving, with no major spikes observed.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B4.0 (low)—no risk of HF blackouts; normal D-layer absorption.
• Solar Wind: 597.7 km/s (elevated)—could enhance minor geomagnetic disturbances, especially at higher latitudes.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux 2440 (moderate), Proton flux 22 (low)—minimal impact on HF, but watch for increased absorption at polar paths.
• Aurora: Level 4 (low)—unlikely to affect HF, but northern operators may notice slight auroral flutter.
• Helium Line: 109.2—indicates stable, moderate solar activity; no major trend changes expected.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past 6 months, solar flux has ranged from 120 to 151, with a recent decline to 110.
• Sunspot numbers have dropped from over 100 to the current 77–94 range, reflecting a modest decrease in solar activity.
• These trends explain the current weakness on high bands (12m/10m) and the reliability of 20m for most HF work.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Solar activity is expected to remain moderate with no major flares forecasted.
• Geomagnetic conditions should stay stable (K-index 2–3), so no severe HF disruptions anticipated.
• HF propagation will continue to favor 20m for DX and reliable contacts; 17m/15m may see brief improvements if solar flux ticks up.
• 12m/10m will likely remain poor, but check for short-lived openings during peak solar hours.
• VHF/UHF: No significant aurora or E-skip expected.
• Recommendation: Focus on 20m for all-around activity, use digital modes on 17m/15m, and check 40m/80m at night for local/regional work. Stay alert for any geomagnetic updates that could briefly impact propagation.