Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is shaped by moderate solar activity and very quiet geomagnetic conditions. With a solar flux of 111 and a K-index of 1, expect generally stable bands, though high bands (12m/10m) are mostly underperforming. 20m is the standout band for reliable daytime and evening contacts, while 40m and 80m will offer solid nighttime performance. Lower sunspot numbers and a downward solar trend mean higher bands are less likely to open for DX, so focus on the mid and lower bands for best results.

💡 Operator Tips

• Target 20m for daytime and evening DX; signals should be strong and consistent.
• 40m and 80m are your best bets for regional and intercontinental contacts after sunset.
• Use digital modes (FT8, PSK31) on higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) to take advantage of weak openings.
• Keep antennas optimized for lower bands; consider NVIS for local work on 80m/40m.
• With low geomagnetic activity, north-south paths may be slightly favored.
• Portable and QRP ops: stick to 20m/40m for best results today.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning (local sunrise/sunset)
• 20m: Good all day, especially late morning through evening
• 17m/15m: Marginal during midday, better for short/medium skip
• 12m/10m: Generally poor, check for sporadic E openings midday

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline: Enhanced propagation on 40m and 20m at local sunrise/sunset—target long-path DX.
• 20m: Most reliable for intercontinental DX, especially across the Atlantic and Pacific.
• 15m/17m: Watch for brief openings to southern latitudes midday.
• Aurora: Low activity—no significant auroral propagation expected.
• Contesters: Focus on 20m for SSB/CW, 40m for nighttime runs, and digital modes for weak-signal DX.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m is the most reliable band throughout the day and evening, offering consistent regional and DX contacts. 40m and 80m are best at night, supporting both local and long-haul QSOs. 17m/15m are marginal—watch for short openings, especially midday. 12m/10m are largely closed; only check these bands for sporadic E or digital activity.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 1 (very quiet)—minimal geomagnetic disturbance, stable HF conditions
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 111—moderate, supports 20m and lower bands, but not enough for reliable high-band DX
• Sunspot Number: 46—low, indicating weak ionization for higher bands
• Space Weather Overview:
  • X-ray Flux: B4.4 (low, no blackout risk)
  • Solar Wind: 372 km/s (average, no storm activity)
  • Helium Line: 117.5 (steady, no major trend change)
  • Aurora: 3 (quiet, no auroral propagation expected)

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has remained low and stable (0–1) over the past 24 hours, indicating very quiet geomagnetic conditions.
• No recent geomagnetic storms or disturbances—propagation is steady and predictable.
• These conditions favor low-latitude and mid-latitude HF operation, with minimal fading or absorption.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B4.4 (low)—no risk of HF radio blackouts; stable D-layer absorption.
• Solar Wind Speed: 372 km/s—typical background speed, not high enough to trigger geomagnetic storms.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 2840—moderate, may cause slight absorption at lower frequencies but no major impact.
  • Proton Flux: 21—well below storm thresholds.
• Aurora Activity: 3—very low; VHF/UHF auroral propagation is not expected.
• Helium Line: 117.5—steady, indicating no abrupt solar trend changes.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent Solar Trends:
  • Solar Flux has declined from ~160 in December to ~111 now, indicating a downward trend in solar activity.
  • Sunspot Numbers have also dropped, from 124 in December to 46 currently.
• Impact:
  • This trend explains the weakening of high-band (12m/10m) propagation and the continued reliability of 20m and lower bands.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect continued quiet geomagnetic conditions (K-index likely to remain low).
• Solar flux is not expected to rise significantly; high bands will remain weak.
• Best bands: 20m for all-day DX, 40m/80m for nighttime.
• Worst bands: 12m/10m—unlikely to open except for brief, localized E-skip.
• No significant solar or geomagnetic storms forecast—enjoy stable conditions, but focus on lower bands for best results.