Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary:
Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and quiet geomagnetic conditions. With a solar flux of 109-116 and sunspot numbers in the mid-70s to upper 80s, expect good performance on 20m throughout the day and night, while higher bands (12m, 10m) remain mostly closed due to insufficient solar energy. The K-index is very low (0-1), meaning geomagnetic stability favors reliable contacts, especially on the lower bands. Operators should focus on 20m and 40m for DX, while 80m and 40m will shine during nighttime. Watch for brief grayline enhancements, but don’t expect strong openings on 15m and above.

💡 Operator Tips

• Target 20m and 40m for the most consistent DX and regional contacts.
• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) on higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) to maximize weak-signal opportunities.
• Nighttime is prime for 80m/40m—try CW or digital for low-noise operation.
• Monitor grayline (sunrise/sunset) on 20m and 40m for enhanced long-path DX.
• Keep antennas low-noise and check grounding, as quiet geomagnetic conditions mean local noise may dominate.
• VHF/UHF: No auroral or E-skip enhancement expected; stick to routine FM and repeater work.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning for both DX and regional QSOs.
• 20m: Good all day and night—your go-to band for reliable contacts.
• 17m/15m: Fair during midday; try late morning to afternoon for possible openings.
• 12m/10m: Poor throughout—check during local noon, but don’t expect much.
• Grayline: Focus on 20m and 40m at sunrise/sunset for best DX.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m: Most reliable for intercontinental DX, especially along grayline paths.
• 40m: Nighttime grayline offers strong east-west and some north-south openings.
• 17m/15m: Occasional short-path DX possible midday, but signals will be weak.
• Grayline: Enhanced propagation on 20m/40m at local sunrise/sunset—watch for rare openings to Asia, Africa, and the Pacific.
• Special Events: No major space weather events or auroral activity expected to boost DX on higher bands.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m is the standout performer, offering good conditions all day and night for both DX and regional contacts. 40m and 80m are good at night and fair during the day, making them ideal for evening and overnight operations. 17m and 15m are fair—try these bands around midday for possible short openings, especially on digital modes. 12m and 10m remain poor due to low solar flux and sunspot numbers; only check these bands if you enjoy a challenge or want to monitor for rare sporadic-E.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 0-1 (Very Low)
  • Indicates very quiet geomagnetic conditions—excellent for stable HF propagation, minimal auroral disturbance.
• Solar Flux: 109–116
  • Moderate—supports good propagation up to 20m, marginal for 17m/15m, and generally poor for 12m/10m.
• Sunspot Number: 76–87
  • Moderate—enough for reliable 20m/40m, but not high enough for strong high-band openings.
• Space Weather Overview:
  • No major solar flares or disturbances. X-ray activity is low (B3.5), so expect stable conditions.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend:
  • The K-index has been very stable and low (0-1) over the past 24 hours.
  • This means no geomagnetic storms or disruptions—excellent for HF, especially on low bands.
  • Conditions are stable and unlikely to worsen in the short term.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity:
  • B3.5 level—very low, indicating no risk of HF blackouts or sudden ionospheric disturbances.
• Solar Wind:
  • 380.7 km/s—a moderate speed, not enough to trigger geomagnetic storms.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 2000 (moderate)—no major impact on HF, but may slightly increase noise on VHF.
  • Proton Flux: 22 (low)—no risk of polar cap absorption events.
• Aurora Activity:
  • 2 (very low)—no auroral propagation expected; VHF/UHF will be normal.
• Helium Line:
  • 113.6—stable, indicating no significant solar trend changes.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent Solar Trends:
  • Solar flux and sunspot numbers have declined slightly over the past few months (from 138 in June to 116 now).
  • This downward trend means high bands (12m/10m) are less likely to open, but 20m/40m remain solid.
  • No major solar events or spikes—conditions have been stable and predictable.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Propagation is expected to remain stable with low K-index and moderate solar flux.
• 20m and 40m will continue to be the best bands for reliable contacts.
• No geomagnetic storms or solar flares are forecast—expect similar conditions for the next 72 hours.
• 12m/10m will likely stay closed except for rare, brief openings.
• No alerts or warnings for HF or VHF operators at this time. Enjoy the quiet bands and take advantage of stable conditions for DX and contesting!