Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary:
Today’s HF propagation is shaped by low solar activity and quiet geomagnetic conditions. The solar flux is modest at 93, with a sunspot number of 25, both indicating below-average ionization in the upper atmosphere. Expect good reliability on the lower bands (80m, 40m, 20m), while higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) will be challenging, especially for long-distance DX. With the K-index at 1 and minimal auroral activity, noise levels should be low, favoring stable contacts. Operators should focus on timing and band selection for best results, especially during local grayline periods.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m and 40m for daytime and evening operations; these bands offer the best balance of reliability and DX reach today.
• Digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) are recommended, especially on higher bands, to maximize weak signal performance.
• Check 80m and 40m at night for strong regional and intercontinental contacts.
• Monitor grayline (sunrise/sunset) for enhanced propagation, especially on 20m and 17m.
• Use directional antennas or rotatable dipoles to take advantage of fleeting DX openings.
• Contest/DXers: Focus efforts on 20m and 40m, as higher bands are likely to be closed or marginal.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning for both local and some DX.
• 20m: Good throughout the day and into the evening; check around sunrise and sunset for DX.
• 17m/15m: Try late morning to early afternoon for possible short openings.
• 12m/10m: Limited propagation; check during local noon for any sporadic-E or short-skip.
• Grayline (dawn/dusk): Enhanced opportunities on 40m, 20m, and possibly 17m.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline paths are your best bet for DX, especially on 20m and 17m.
• East-west paths (Europe <-> Americas, Asia <-> Americas) may open briefly on 20m during sunrise/sunset.
• Low K-index means polar paths are open, but low solar flux limits high-latitude DX.
• No significant aurora: VHF/UHF auroral propagation is not expected.
• Watch for short, sporadic-E events on 10m/12m around midday, but don’t expect consistent DX.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:

• 20m is the most reliable all day, offering consistent regional and some DX opportunities.
• 40m and 80m are strong at night and early morning, ideal for local and some long-haul contacts.
• 17m and 15m may yield occasional openings, mainly midday, but expect only fair conditions.
• 12m and 10m are largely closed due to low solar flux; check only for brief, local openings.
• Best bands: 20m (all day), 40m/80m (night/morning).
• Challenging bands: 12m and 10m (poor/closed).

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 1 (very quiet geomagnetic field, minimal absorption or auroral disturbance)
• Solar Flux: 93 (low; limits ionization, especially on higher bands)
• Sunspot Number: 25 (low; correlates with reduced HF propagation on 15m and above)
• Space Weather: No significant flares or disturbances; X-ray flux at B3.9 (quiet)

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend: Stable and quiet over the past 24 hours, with values at or near 0–1.
• Implications: Low geomagnetic activity means low noise and stable propagation, especially on lower bands. No geomagnetic storms or auroral effects expected.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B3.9 (very low; no HF blackouts expected)
• Solar Wind: 369 km/s (moderate; not enough to disturb geomagnetic field)
• Particle Environment: Electron flux at 2120 (moderate, no significant impact); proton flux at 25 (quiet)
• Aurora Activity: Level 1 (very low; auroral propagation on VHF/UHF not expected)
• Helium Line: 103.7 (stable; no indication of rising solar activity)
• Practical Impact: No significant space weather threats; expect stable HF conditions, especially on lower bands.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent months: Solar flux and sunspot numbers have declined steadily since June, indicating a downturn in solar activity.
• Current trend: Lower solar flux (from 138 in June to 93 now) and sunspot numbers (from 93 to 25) mean less ionization, especially for higher HF bands.
• Result: Lower bands (80m, 40m, 20m) remain reliable; higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) are mostly closed except for occasional short-skip.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Propagation will remain stable with quiet geomagnetic conditions (K-index forecast to stay low).
• No major solar events expected; solar flux and sunspot numbers will likely remain low.
• Best bands: 20m, 40m, and 80m for both local and some DX work.
• Challenging bands: 15m, 12m, and 10m will continue to be poor; check only for sporadic-E or local openings.
• Advice: Plan operating schedules around grayline and night hours for best results. Digital modes will outperform SSB/CW on marginal bands. No alerts or warnings for HF or VHF operators at this time.