Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is being challenged by a combination of moderate solar flux and elevated geomagnetic activity. With a solar flux around 127 and sunspot numbers just above 80, conditions are only fair on the higher bands during daylight, while lower bands are generally poor throughout the day and night. The K-index is elevated (5), signaling unsettled geomagnetic conditions that can degrade HF performance, especially for polar and trans-equatorial paths. Expect best results on 15m and 17m during the day, with limited opportunities on 12m and 10m. Operators should be flexible, monitor real-time spots, and adjust band choices as conditions evolve.

💡 Operator Tips

• Focus on 15m and 17m for daytime DX—these bands are showing fair conditions and may support intercontinental contacts, especially on east-west paths.
• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, RTTY) to maximize weak signal contacts, especially when SSB/CW is tough.
• For low bands (80m/40m), expect high noise and poor propagation—consider NVIS for local/regional comms.
• With geomagnetic activity up, polar paths may be unreliable; try mid-latitude or equatorial routes.
• Keep an eye on real-time DX clusters and be ready to QSY as band openings can be brief and sporadic.
• If contesting, prioritize higher bands during daylight and be prepared for rapid QSB (fading).

⏰ Best Operating Times

Operate higher bands during local daylight for best results. Lower bands are not recommended today.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Daytime DX: 17m and 15m may open to Europe, Africa, and South America, especially on east-west paths.
• Grayline: Limited enhancement expected due to poor low-band conditions, but try 17m/15m around sunrise/sunset for possible short openings.
• Polar paths: Likely degraded due to high K-index—focus on mid-latitude and equatorial routes.
• Special events: Watch for brief 10m/12m openings during solar flux peaks or sudden drops in K-index.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

• Best bands today: 15m and 17m during daylight hours—these offer the most reliable propagation for DX and general contacts.
• Marginal bands: 12m and 10m may open briefly around midday but expect short, spotty conditions.
• Worst bands: 80m, 40m, and 20m are poor throughout the 24-hour period due to high absorption and geomagnetic disturbance.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 5 (elevated) — Indicates geomagnetic storm conditions, which can cause HF fading, absorption, and aurora at higher latitudes.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 127 — Moderate; supports some higher band openings but not strong enough for robust 10m/12m propagation.
• Sunspot Number: 81 — Moderate; enough for some solar-driven propagation but not optimal.
• Space Weather Overview:
  • X-ray flux: B8.8 — No major flare activity, but background levels are elevated.
  • Solar wind speed: 520 km/s — Above average, contributing to geomagnetic instability.
  • Aurora: 2 — Minor, but could impact VHF/UHF at high latitudes.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend: The K-index has risen to 5 in the past 24 hours, indicating a period of geomagnetic unrest. This trend suggests worsening HF conditions, especially for polar and high-latitude paths. If the K-index drops, expect gradual improvement; if it remains elevated, expect continued absorption and fading.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B8.8 — Low-level X-ray background; no risk of sudden HF blackouts, but elevated enough to indicate ongoing solar activity.
• Solar Wind: 520.2 km/s — Fast solar wind can disturb Earth's magnetic field, leading to higher K-index and degraded HF propagation.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron flux: 1670 — Elevated; can cause increased D-layer absorption, especially on lower HF bands.
  • Proton flux: 109 — Not at storm levels, so no major polar blackout risk.
• Aurora Activity: 2 — Minor auroral activity; VHF/UHF aurora propagation possible for northern stations, but not widespread.
• Helium Line: 123.4 — Indicates moderate solar activity; no major trend shifts detected.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent solar flux and sunspot trends: Over the past 6 months, both solar flux and sunspot numbers have declined from their late 2025 peaks (solar flux ~160, SSN ~125) to current moderate levels (solar flux ~126, SSN ~101). This downward trend means fewer robust high-band openings and generally weaker HF propagation.
• Expectations: Unless solar activity increases, anticipate continued fair to poor conditions on most bands, with only brief high-band openings.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Propagation outlook: Expect continued fair conditions on 15m/17m during daylight, with poor conditions on low bands and only brief 10m/12m openings. If the K-index drops, some improvement is possible, but if geomagnetic activity persists, conditions may remain challenging.
• Recommendations:
  • Monitor real-time K-index and solar flux updates.
  • Prioritize digital modes and higher bands during daylight.
  • Watch for sudden band openings and be ready to QSY quickly.
  • Northern operators: Watch for auroral VHF/UHF propagation if K-index spikes further.
• No major alerts or warnings, but stay alert for sudden geomagnetic changes that could further impact HF.