Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary

Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and a quiet geomagnetic field. The current solar flux is 111 with a sunspot number of 66, both on the lower side compared to recent months, which means higher bands (12m/10m) are mostly underperforming. The K-index is low (1-2), indicating stable conditions and minimal geomagnetic disturbance, which is good news for HF reliability. Expect best results on 20m and 40m, especially during local night and early morning. Operators should focus on the lower and mid bands for both local and DX contacts, and be alert for short-lived grayline enhancements.

💡 Operator Tips

• Concentrate your efforts on 20m and 40m for reliable DX and regional contacts.
• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) to maximize weak signal work, especially on higher bands.
• For SSB and CW, stick to 20m during the day and 40m/80m at night.
• If chasing DX, work the grayline (sunrise/sunset) on 40m and 20m for enhanced long-path openings.
• Antenna efficiency is key: verticals and dipoles will outperform compromised setups under current conditions.
• Keep an eye on solar wind and X-ray activity for sudden changes, but no major alerts are active.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Evening through early morning (local time) for both local and DX.
• 20m: Late morning through late afternoon for DX; evening for regional.
• 17m/15m: Midday for possible short openings, especially on digital modes.
• 12m/10m: Limited openings possible around local noon, but generally poor.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline propagation is your best bet for DX, especially on 40m and 20m at sunrise and sunset.
• East-west paths (e.g., Europe to Americas, Asia to Europe) are favored on 20m during the day.
• North-south paths may see brief openings on 17m and 15m around midday.
• No significant auroral activity, so polar paths are stable.
• Watch for short, enhanced openings during local dawn/dusk, especially if X-ray or solar wind spikes.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

20m is the most consistent performer throughout the day and night, offering good conditions for both DX and regional contacts. 40m and 80m are good at night and in the morning, ideal for local and some DX. 17m and 15m are only fair, with short, weak openings possible around midday. 12m and 10m are generally poor and not recommended for reliable contacts today.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 1.67 — Low geomagnetic activity, which means stable HF propagation and minimal disruptions.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 111 — Indicates modest solar energy, supporting lower and mid HF bands but limiting higher bands.
• Sunspot Number: 66 — On the lower end, further confirming that higher bands will struggle.
• Space Weather Overview:
  • No major solar flares or disturbances.
  • X-ray flux at B4.1 (low), so no risk of HF blackouts.
  • Aurora activity is minimal (1), so polar path disruptions are unlikely.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

The K-index has shown a steady decline over the past 48 hours, dropping from stormy levels (K=6) to today's quiet values (K=1-2). This trend means the ionosphere is recovering from recent disturbances, and HF conditions are stabilizing. Expect continued quiet geomagnetic conditions unless a new solar event occurs.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B4.1 — Low X-ray flux, so no D-layer absorption spikes or sudden HF blackouts.
• Solar Wind: 482.6 km/s — Moderate speed; not high enough to trigger geomagnetic storms but keep an eye on any sudden increases.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 2780 — Elevated, may cause minor absorption on polar paths but not significant for most HF ops.
  • Proton Flux: 18 — Low, so no proton event-related blackouts.
• Aurora Activity: 1 — Very low, so VHF/UHF auroral propagation is unlikely.
• Helium Line: 109.3 — Indicates stable solar output, no rapid changes expected.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show a declining trend in both solar flux and sunspot numbers, from peaks above 160 and 124 respectively, down to current values of 111 and 66. This gradual decrease explains the weaker performance of higher HF bands (15m and up) and the continued reliability of 20m and 40m. If the trend continues, expect springtime propagation to favor lower bands unless solar activity picks up.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• HF: Expect continued good conditions on 20m and 40m, with 80m strong at night. Higher bands (15m/12m/10m) will remain fair to poor unless a solar uptick occurs.
• VHF/UHF: No auroral or E-skip events expected.
• Geomagnetic: Quiet conditions should persist, supporting stable HF propagation.
• Action: Focus on 20m/40m for DX and regional work, use digital modes to maximize contacts, and monitor for any sudden solar changes. No alerts or warnings at this time.