Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary

HF propagation is currently challenging due to a combination of moderate solar flux (109) and a recent stretch of elevated geomagnetic activity (K-index around 3, with spikes up to 6 in the past 48 hours). 20m is the most reliable band for daytime and evening operation, while lower bands (80m/40m) are only fair at night. High bands (15m, 12m, 10m) are mostly poor due to low solar flux and lingering geomagnetic disturbances. Expect shorter skip distances and more regional propagation, with limited DX on higher bands. Operators should focus on 20m and 17m for the best chances at contacts and monitor for further geomagnetic changes.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m and 17m for both local and DX contacts—these bands are the most stable today.
• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) to take advantage of weak signal performance, especially when SSB/CW is tough.
• Lower your expectations for 10m/12m—these bands are likely closed or very poor except for occasional sporadic-E.
• For nighttime operation, try 40m and 80m for regional QSOs, but expect higher noise and fading.
• Check grayline times for enhanced propagation, especially on 20m and 40m.
• If contesting, focus efforts on 20m and 17m during the day and 40m at night.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning (regional NVIS and some DX possible)
• 20m: Good all day, peaks during local afternoon and evening
• 17m/15m: Fair during daylight hours, especially late morning to mid-afternoon
• 12m/10m: Poor throughout the day; check for brief openings around local noon or during sporadic-E events

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m offers the most consistent DX paths, especially along the grayline at sunrise and sunset.
• 17m may support some DX, particularly to equatorial and southern latitudes.
• 40m can provide long-haul DX during local nighttime, especially toward sunrise.
• Grayline enhancement is your friend—watch for brief but strong openings on 20m and 40m.
• Auroral activity is low (Aurora: 2), so VHF aurora propagation is unlikely.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

20m is the standout band for reliable contacts throughout the day and evening. 17m and 15m offer fair conditions, mainly for shorter skip and some DX. 80m and 40m are fair at night, best for regional work. 12m and 10m are mostly closed—check only for brief, rare openings.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 (moderate geomagnetic activity; not stormy, but enough to degrade higher bands)
• Solar Flux: 109 (low-moderate; limits high-band propagation, favors lower bands)
• Sunspot Number: 93 (moderate; supports some F-layer propagation, but not enough for strong 10/12m openings)
• Space Weather: No major flares, but X-ray flux is at B4.0 (quiet to slightly active)

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has fluctuated between 2 and 6 over the past 48 hours, peaking at 6 (minor geomagnetic storm) and now settling back to 3.
• Conditions are improving after a recent geomagnetic disturbance, but the lingering effects are still suppressing high-band propagation.
• Watch for further K-index changes—if it drops below 2, expect better high-band openings.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B4.0 (quiet to slightly active; low risk of HF blackouts)
• Solar Wind: 612.6 km/s (elevated; can trigger geomagnetic activity and auroral absorption, especially at higher latitudes)
• Electron Flux: 2230 (moderate; may cause some absorption and noise on lower bands)
• Proton Flux: 15 (quiet; no significant impact)
• Aurora: 2 (very low; auroral propagation on VHF/UHF is unlikely)
• Helium Line: 110.2 (steady; no rapid changes in solar activity expected)

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past 7 months, solar flux and sunspot numbers have declined from highs near 160/130 to current values around 109/93.
• This downward trend means less support for high-band (10m/12m) propagation and more reliance on 20m and below for reliable contacts.
• Recent geomagnetic storms have further limited high-band openings.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect continued moderate solar activity with solar flux in the 100-120 range.
• K-index likely to remain between 2 and 4, with possible brief spikes if solar wind remains elevated.
• Best bands: 20m (all day), 17m/15m (late morning to afternoon), 40m/80m (night).
• Worst bands: 10m/12m (mostly closed).
• No major space weather alerts, but monitor for sudden K-index increases that could further degrade HF conditions. Stay flexible and check real-time band reports for any surprise openings!