Amateur Radio Propagation Report

📋 Propagation Summary

HF propagation is significantly impacted today by strong geomagnetic disturbances, with the K-index at 6+ and recent values peaking as high as 7. This elevated geomagnetic activity is causing widespread absorption and poor conditions across all HF bands, despite a moderate solar flux (120) and sunspot numbers in the upper 70s to mid-90s. Expect very challenging HF conditions—most bands from 80m to 10m are rated 🔴 Poor or worse, with limited opportunities for DX or even regional contacts. Operators should anticipate high noise, fading, and possible blackouts, especially at higher latitudes. Monitor the K-index closely for signs of improvement before planning major operating activities.

💡 Operator Tips

• Focus on NVIS/local contacts on 80m and 40m, as DX is unlikely.
• Use digital modes (FT8, JT65, PSK31) for better weak-signal performance in tough conditions.
• Lower your expectations for SSB and CW DX—short skip and local nets will be more reliable.
• If you’re in northern latitudes, expect auroral flutter and possible blackout periods.
• Keep antennas low-noise and consider directional antennas to minimize geomagnetic noise.
• Log any unusual openings—sometimes brief DX windows occur during geomagnetic storms.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• Best chances are on 80m/40m at night for local contacts. Higher bands are mostly closed.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• DX is highly limited today due to the ongoing geomagnetic storm.
• Grayline openings are unlikely to produce much, but check 40m/20m at sunrise/sunset for very brief windows.
• Auroral propagation may allow for rare VHF/UHF contacts in high latitudes, but expect severe distortion.
• Watch for sporadic-E on 10m/6m, but chances are low under current conditions.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Currently, all HF bands (80m-10m) are severely degraded due to high geomagnetic activity. 80m and 40m may support local and regional contacts, but expect high noise and fading. 20m and above are largely closed to DX, with only the slimmest chance of brief, weak openings. No band is working well for DX or intercontinental contacts today.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 6.33 (Severe geomagnetic storm—expect major HF disruptions)
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 120 (Moderate—enough for propagation if not for geomagnetic storm)
• Sunspot Number: 96 (Decent, but not enough to overcome current geomagnetic absorption)
• Space Weather Overview:
  • Solar wind speed is high (653 km/s), fueling ongoing geomagnetic activity.
  • X-ray flux at B7.4—no major flares, but background activity is elevated.
  • Aurora level at 6—high, especially for northern operators (expect auroral effects).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has been elevated for over 24 hours, peaking at 7 and remaining above 6 for much of the last day.
• After a brief dip, values have remained high, indicating a sustained geomagnetic storm.
• Conditions are not improving yet—operators should expect continued poor HF propagation until the K-index drops below 4.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B7.4—no major solar flares, but background X-ray levels are moderately high. No immediate risk of sudden HF blackouts, but absorption remains high.
• Solar Wind: 653.2 km/s—very fast, driving geomagnetic storms and causing auroral activity.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux (2590) and proton flux (3300) are both elevated, contributing to D-layer absorption and further degrading HF.
• Aurora Activity: 6—high auroral activity, especially affecting northern paths. VHF/UHF operators may experience auroral propagation, but HF will suffer.
• Helium Line: 112.3—moderate, indicating active solar conditions but not extreme flare risk.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past several months, solar flux and sunspot numbers have trended downward from late 2025 peaks, contributing to generally lower MUFs.
• The current geomagnetic storm is the dominant factor, overwhelming the moderate solar flux and sunspot support for HF propagation.
• Historical solar data shows we are past the recent solar maximum, so expect more frequent disturbed periods and less robust high-band openings.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• HF conditions will remain poor as long as the K-index stays above 5. Watch for improvement as geomagnetic activity subsides—bands may recover quickly once the storm passes.
• 80m and 40m will continue to be the best bets for local/regional contacts, but noise will remain high.
• Monitor space weather alerts for signs of improvement—sunspot and solar flux levels are sufficient for good propagation once geomagnetic conditions settle.
• VHF/UHF operators in northern regions: watch for auroral propagation opportunities, but expect severe distortion.
• No major solar flares expected, but stay alert for sudden changes. If the K-index drops, 20m and 17m may quickly return to usable conditions for daytime DX.