Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation is currently being challenged by elevated geomagnetic activity and only moderate solar flux. With a solar flux index of 148 and a K-index of 5, expect generally fair conditions on the higher bands (17m–10m) during the day, but poor conditions on 80m–20m around the clock. Nighttime propagation is especially limited on the high bands, and auroral activity may further disrupt northern paths. Operators should focus on daytime windows for best results and be prepared for rapid changes due to unsettled space weather.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) to maximize contacts on marginal bands, especially 17m and 15m.
• Shorten your skip: Try NVIS on 40m/80m for local/regional contacts, as DX will be tough on low bands.
• For DX, target 17m and 15m during daylight hours; avoid 10m/12m at night.
• Monitor the K-index: If it drops, jump on the bands quickly—openings may be brief.
• Check for auroral activity if operating at higher latitudes; VHF/UHF may see sporadic openings.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Poor all day—try at local sunrise/sunset for any chance of regional propagation.
• 20m: Poor, but check late morning to early afternoon for short openings.
• 17m & 15m: Fair during daylight, especially around midday.
• 12m & 10m: Fair only during the day, closed at night.
• Evenings and nights: Focus on digital modes or local nets; HF DX will be limited.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Daytime grayline may briefly enhance 17m and 15m paths—watch for short-lived DX on these bands.
• Auroral activity (Aurora index 5) could create unique openings on VHF/UHF for northern operators.
• East-west paths (mid-latitudes) are more likely to be open than polar or north-south routes.
• No major special events or enhanced openings are forecast due to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Currently, 17m and 15m are your best bets for daytime and early evening DX, with fair conditions holding most of the day. 12m and 10m may offer brief openings during daylight but close quickly after sunset. 80m, 40m, and 20m are poor throughout the day and night, so focus on higher bands and digital modes for any chance of success.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 5 (elevated geomagnetic activity) — expect increased absorption and fading, especially on polar and high-latitude paths.
• Solar Flux: 148 (moderate) — supports fair propagation on higher HF bands, but not enough for strong 10m/12m openings.
• Sunspot Number: 88 (moderate) — indicates some solar activity, but not at peak levels.
• Space Weather: X-ray flux at B9.7 (no major flares), but high solar wind and moderate aurora levels may cause further disruptions.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has recently spiked to 5, indicating a geomagnetic storm. This is a jump from quieter conditions earlier in the month, and it is currently worsening HF propagation, especially on lower bands.
• Trends: Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic activity has increased, so expect continued absorption and fading, particularly at higher latitudes.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B9.7 — No major flares, but elevated background means the ionosphere is unsettled.
• Solar Wind: 654.8 km/s — High speed, which can drive geomagnetic storms and increase absorption.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux 1460, Proton flux 12 — Elevated, can cause further HF absorption and noise.
• Aurora Activity: 5 — Moderate auroral activity; VHF/UHF operators in northern latitudes may see auroral propagation, but HF will be degraded on polar paths.
• Helium Line: 124.4 — Indicates moderate solar activity; not trending upward, so no major flare risk, but ionospheric instability persists.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past several months, solar flux has fluctuated between 120 and 150, with sunspot numbers declining from last year’s peak (133.7 in Aug 2025) to current moderate levels (94 in June 2026).
• This trend suggests we are past the solar maximum, and conditions are slowly declining, especially for the higher bands.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect continued unsettled geomagnetic conditions with K-index remaining elevated.
• HF propagation will remain challenging, especially on 80m–20m. 17m and 15m may offer the best chances for DX during daylight.
• VHF/UHF: Watch for auroral openings if you are in northern latitudes.
• No major solar flares forecast, but stay alert for sudden changes if the K-index drops—band conditions could briefly improve.
• Recommendation: Focus on digital modes, monitor real-time space weather updates, and be ready to take advantage of short-lived band openings.