Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is being impacted by elevated geomagnetic activity, with the K-index hovering around 4 and recent spikes above 5. Solar flux has dropped to 108, and sunspot numbers are at 0, both indicating weaker ionospheric support for higher bands. Expect challenging conditions on 12m and 10m, while 20m, 17m, and 15m may still offer some fair openings, especially during daylight. Lower bands (80m, 40m) are suffering during the day but may improve after sunset. Operators should focus on timing and mode selection to maximize contacts, especially for DX.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use digital modes (FT8, JT65, PSK31) for better performance under poor conditions, especially on higher bands.
• Check 20m and 17m during local daytime for the best chance at DX; 40m and 80m will be more reliable at night.
• Short skip may be limited, so target longer paths and grayline opportunities.
• For contesting or DXing, monitor the K-index—if it drops, higher bands may briefly open.
• Keep antennas low-noise and well-matched; consider using receive-only antennas for 80m/40m to reduce QRN.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Best after local sunset through early morning (nighttime)
• 20m, 17m, 15m: Mid-morning to late afternoon (daytime)
• 12m & 10m: Limited openings, mostly midday if any, but generally poor today

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline: Focus on 20m and 17m around sunrise and sunset for enhanced DX propagation along the terminator.
• Polar paths may be degraded due to high geomagnetic activity—try equatorial and trans-equatorial paths instead.
• Auroral activity (level 4) may offer VHF aurora opportunities for northern stations, but HF will be more disturbed.
• Watch for sporadic E on 10m/6m, but expect limited activity.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

20m, 17m, and 15m are your best bets for daytime and early evening operation, providing fair but workable conditions for both local and some DX contacts. 80m and 40m are poor during the day but become usable after dark. 12m and 10m are largely closed due to low solar flux and high geomagnetic activity—monitor for brief openings, but don't expect much.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 4 (elevated geomagnetic activity, causing absorption and fading, especially on polar and high-latitude paths)
• Solar Flux: 108 (low; limits MUF, especially for higher bands like 12m/10m)
• Sunspot Number: 0 (very low; reduces ionization and overall HF band performance)
• Space Weather: X-ray flux at B5.0 (quiet, but not enough to offset low sunspot/flux)

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

The K-index has fluctuated between 3 and 5 over the past 48 hours, with several periods above 4. This indicates recent geomagnetic storms and unsettled conditions. While there is some improvement from peak storm levels, the geomagnetic field remains disturbed, especially for northern and polar paths. Expect continued absorption and fading, with possible shortwave blackouts during further K-index spikes.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B5.0 (quiet; no significant solar flares, so no immediate HF blackouts expected)
• Solar Wind: 609 km/s (elevated; can drive geomagnetic disturbances and aurora, leading to absorption and fading on HF)
• Particle Environment: Electron and proton flux not reported, but elevated K-index and solar wind suggest enhanced particle activity—watch for increased noise and fading.
• Aurora Activity: Level 4 (active; VHF aurora possible for northern operators, but HF will see increased absorption and flutter, especially on polar paths)
• Helium Line: "ch" (no significant trend indicated; solar activity remains low)

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months have shown a decline in solar flux (from 160 in December to 108 now) and a drop in sunspot numbers, both contributing to the current poor HF conditions. The historical trend suggests we are past the recent solar maximum, with a downward trend in solar activity. This means fewer and weaker band openings, especially on higher frequencies.

🔮 3-Day Forecast