Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity with a solar flux of 108 and sunspot numbers around 103. Most bands are open, but higher frequencies (12m, 10m) are underperforming due to lower solar flux and recent downward trends. Expect good conditions on 20m throughout the day and night, while 80m and 40m will be more reliable at night. Geomagnetic activity is low (K-index 2), so noise and absorption are minimal, favoring stable propagation. For best results, focus on the lower and mid bands and plan for daytime and evening operations on 20m and 40m.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use 20m for reliable DX and daytime contacts; it’s the most consistent performer today.
• 80m and 40m are best at night for regional and some DX work—expect less noise and stronger signals.
• 15m and 17m may offer occasional openings during midday, especially for north-south paths.
• 12m and 10m are mostly poor; check for brief sporadic-E or contest activity but don’t expect much.
• Modes: CW and digital modes (FT8, RTTY, PSK) will outperform SSB, especially on marginal bands.
• Use directional antennas and low-angle takeoff for DX, especially during grayline periods.
• Monitor for sudden changes—solar wind and X-ray activity could trigger short-term blackouts.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Best at night (after sunset to sunrise)
• 20m: Excellent all day and into evening
• 17m & 15m: Late morning to early afternoon (watch for brief openings)
• 12m & 10m: Occasional midday openings possible, but generally poor

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline: Enhanced long-path propagation on 40m and 20m around local sunrise and sunset—target east-west DX paths.
• 20m: Most reliable for intercontinental contacts, especially during daylight and early evening.
• 15m/17m: Watch for short-lived DX windows midday, especially to South America and Africa.
• Aurora: Low activity (Aurora 3), so VHF/UHF auroral propagation is unlikely.
• Special Events: No major solar events or warnings—stable conditions favor scheduled DXpeditions and contests.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m is the top performer, offering good propagation throughout the day and night for both local and DX contacts. 80m and 40m are fair during the day but good at night, making them ideal for late evening and early morning operation. 17m and 15m are fair and may support some DX, especially around midday. 12m and 10m are generally poor—expect little to no activity except for possible brief sporadic-E events.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2 (Low geomagnetic activity; stable HF conditions, minimal absorption or auroral effects)
• Solar Flux: 108 (Below recent months’ average; limits higher band openings, but supports 20m and below)
• Sunspot Number: 103 (Moderate; enough for decent propagation, but not enough to boost 10m/12m)
• Space Weather: No major flares, but X-ray flux at C1.1 suggests minor disturbances possible

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has remained low and stable over the past 24 hours, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions.
• No recent spikes or geomagnetic storms—propagation is not being disrupted by space weather.
• Expect continued stability unless sudden solar events occur.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: C1.1 (Low-level; minor risk of short HF blackouts, but unlikely to affect most operations)
• Solar Wind: 374 km/s (Moderate speed; not high enough to trigger geomagnetic storms)
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 2510 (Elevated but not extreme; may cause minor absorption at lower frequencies)
  • Proton Flux: 41 (Quiet; no proton events impacting propagation)
• Aurora: 3 (Low; VHF/UHF auroral propagation unlikely, especially outside high latitudes)
• Helium Line: 110.8 (Stable; no significant solar trend changes expected)

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past 7 months, solar flux has declined from a peak of 160 in December to the current 108–130 range.
• Sunspot numbers have also dropped, reflecting a waning solar cycle phase—this explains the weaker high-band conditions.
• Expect continued moderate propagation on 20m and below, with high bands (15m, 12m, 10m) only opening during brief solar upticks or sporadic events.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Propagation is expected to remain stable with low geomagnetic activity and moderate solar flux.
• 20m will continue to be the most reliable band for both local and DX contacts.
• 80m and 40m will provide strong night-time performance.
• 15m/17m may offer occasional midday openings, but 12m/10m will likely stay closed.
• No alerts or warnings—enjoy steady conditions and plan for evening and grayline DX!