Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation is being impacted by moderate solar activity and recent geomagnetic disturbances. The solar flux is currently at 107 with a sunspot number of 48, which is on the lower side for strong high-band openings. The K-index has recently dropped from storm levels but remains slightly elevated, meaning conditions are improving but not yet fully settled. Expect best results on 20m during the day and evening, while low bands (80m/40m) will be noisy and high bands (12m/10m) mostly closed. Operators should be alert for rapid changes, especially if another geomagnetic spike occurs.

💡 Operator Tips

• Focus on 20m and 17m for reliable contacts—these bands are currently the most stable.
• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) to maximize weak signal performance, especially on higher bands.
• Low bands (80m/40m) will be noisy and less productive during the day; try them at night for regional QSOs.
• Monitor the K-index: If it rises again, expect further HF degradation—keep an ear on WWV for updates.
• Verticals and directional antennas will help cut through noise, especially on 20m and above.
• For DX, grayline timing is critical—plan your operating windows accordingly.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning (local time)
• 20m: Excellent from late morning through evening
• 17m/15m: Fair during midday and early afternoon
• 12m/10m: Mostly closed, but check for brief openings during local noon, especially after geomagnetic recovery

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline openings on 20m and 17m can provide short windows for DX—watch sunrise and sunset at both your QTH and target DX locations.
• Auroral activity is elevated (Aurora: 5), so northern path DX may be enhanced on VHF/UHF, but HF polar paths may be disturbed.
• Look for trans-equatorial paths on 15m during late afternoon.
• Contest and DXpedition activity: Concentrate efforts on 20m and 17m for best results; check cluster spots for rare DX.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

20m is the standout band for both local and DX contacts throughout the day and evening. 17m and 15m are usable but less reliable, especially for longer paths. 80m and 40m are noisy during the day but may offer fair conditions at night for regional QSOs. 12m and 10m are largely closed due to low solar flux and recent geomagnetic activity—check for sporadic E or short-lived openings around local noon.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 (moderate)—recently down from storm levels, but still elevated; expect some HF absorption and noise.
• Solar Flux: 107 (low)—limits high-band (12m/10m) propagation, favors lower bands.
• Sunspot Number: 48—modest, supporting only limited high-frequency activity.
• Space Weather Overview: Recent geomagnetic storm has passed, but conditions are still settling. Watch for further disturbances.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index was quiet (0-1) for much of the previous day, then spiked sharply to storm levels (K=7), and is now declining but remains slightly elevated (K=3-4).
• This trend means bands are recovering from a geomagnetic storm, but auroral absorption and noise may linger, especially on polar paths.
• If the K-index continues to drop, expect gradual improvement in HF conditions over the next 24 hours.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B4.1—low, so no major HF blackouts expected, but keep an eye out for sudden increases.
• Solar Wind Speed: 504.9 km/s—elevated, contributing to recent geomagnetic disturbances and auroral activity.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux at 1900 and proton flux at 279—higher levels can cause increased noise and absorption, especially on polar and high-latitude paths.
• Aurora Activity: 5—enhanced; VHF/UHF operators in northern latitudes may see auroral propagation, but HF polar paths will be disturbed.
• Helium Line: 111.1—moderate, suggesting solar activity is not at its peak, but still active enough to watch for further events.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past several months, solar flux and sunspot numbers have trended downward from their late 2025 highs, leading to generally weaker high-band conditions.
• The recent geomagnetic storm caused a sharp, temporary drop in HF propagation quality, but the trend is now improving.
• If solar flux rises again, expect better 15m/12m/10m openings; for now, stick to 20m and 17m for best results.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Next 24 hours: Expect gradual improvement as geomagnetic activity settles. 20m and 17m will continue to be the best bets.
• Day 2: If K-index remains low, look for possible improvement on 15m and maybe brief 12m openings.
• Day 3: Watch for new solar events—if solar wind or K-index spikes, expect renewed HF absorption and noise.
• Recommendations: Monitor real-time indices, focus on 20m/17m, and be flexible with operating times. VHF/UHF auroral propagation may still be possible for northern stations.