Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation is significantly depressed today due to a combination of high geomagnetic activity and only moderate solar flux. All HF bands from 80m to 10m are experiencing poor conditions for both day and night operation, with minimal opportunities for long-distance contacts. The K-index is elevated, indicating geomagnetic storm conditions that are disrupting the ionosphere and further degrading propagation. Operators should expect increased noise, fading, and limited DX opportunities. For now, focus on local and regional contacts, and monitor for rapid changes as geomagnetic conditions evolve.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use NVIS (Near Vertical Incidence Skywave) techniques on 80m and 40m for reliable local and regional coverage.
• Digital modes (FT8, JT65, PSK31) are more likely to succeed than SSB or CW under these poor conditions.
• Lower your noise floor with tight filtering and consider using directional antennas to minimize QRM.
• If you’re chasing DX, check for brief grayline enhancements at sunrise/sunset, but keep expectations modest.
• Keep an eye on real-time space weather updates—conditions may improve quickly if the geomagnetic storm subsides.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Best chance for local/regional QSOs during nighttime and early morning, but expect high noise.
• 20m, 17m, 15m, 12m, 10m: All bands are poor throughout the day and night; only attempt during local peak daylight hours for possible short openings.
• Grayline: Brief windows at sunrise and sunset may offer slightly improved propagation, especially on 40m and 20m.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• DX is very limited today due to high geomagnetic activity and low MUF. Long-haul paths are mostly closed.
• Grayline propagation may provide fleeting opportunities on 40m and 20m, especially for east-west paths.
• Watch for auroral propagation on VHF/UHF in high latitudes, but HF bands are mostly shut down for DX.
• No major special propagation events are expected until geomagnetic conditions settle.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Currently, all HF bands (80m–10m) are rated as poor for propagation at all times of day. The best chances for any contacts are on the lower bands (80m/40m) for local and short-haul QSOs, especially at night. High bands (20m–10m) are essentially closed for DX and even regional work due to low MUF and high geomagnetic disturbance.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 6 (High geomagnetic activity; indicates a geomagnetic storm is in progress, causing major HF disruptions)
• Solar Flux: 138 (Moderate; supports decent propagation under quiet geomagnetic conditions, but not enough to overcome current storm)
• Sunspot Number: 143 (High, but not translating to good propagation due to geomagnetic storm)
• Space Weather Overview: Elevated geomagnetic activity is overwhelming the benefits of a decent solar flux and sunspot count. Expect poor HF conditions until the K-index drops.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has spiked to 6 in the past 24 hours, indicating a significant geomagnetic storm.
• This is a sharp increase from previous days, suggesting a recent solar event (such as a CME impact).
• Trend: Conditions have worsened rapidly, with no immediate sign of improvement. Monitor for updates, as the storm could subside or intensify further.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B9.8 (Elevated, but not at M-class; unlikely to cause major HF blackouts, but indicates active solar regions)
• Solar Wind: 434 km/s (Moderately elevated; helps drive geomagnetic storms and aurora)
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 2270 (Elevated; can cause increased D-layer absorption and HF signal fading)
  • Proton Flux: 10 (Low to moderate; not high enough for major radio blackouts)
• Aurora Activity: 6 (High; auroral activity can cause absorption and flutter on HF, especially at high latitudes, and may open VHF/UHF auroral paths)
• Helium Line: 116.9 (Indicates ongoing solar activity; trend is stable to slightly declining)

For operators: HF absorption and fading are likely, especially at higher latitudes. VHF/UHF operators in the north should watch for auroral propagation opportunities.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show a downward trend in solar flux and sunspot numbers:

• Solar flux peaked at 160 in December 2025 and has since dropped to 120 in April 2026.
• Sunspot numbers have also declined from over 120 to under 80.
• This trend, combined with today’s geomagnetic storm, results in very poor HF propagation.

The historical trend suggests we are past the recent solar maximum, with declining solar activity. This means fewer high-band openings and more reliance on low bands for reliable contacts, especially during geomagnetic disturbances.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• HF conditions are expected to remain poor for the next 1–2 days as the geomagnetic storm persists.
• If the K-index drops below 4, expect gradual improvement, especially on 20m and 40m.
• Best bands (when conditions improve): 40m and 20m for regional and some DX; 80m for local.
• Worst bands: 10m–15m will remain mostly closed unless solar flux rises and geomagnetic activity settles.
• VHF/UHF: Watch for auroral openings at high latitudes while the K-index remains high.
• Recommendations: Check space weather updates frequently, use digital modes, and be patient—conditions can change rapidly after a geomagnetic storm.