Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: Today’s HF propagation is being heavily affected by a spike in geomagnetic activity, with the K-index reaching 5.67 (G1 storm levels) and an elevated A-index. Solar flux is moderate at 102, but sunspot numbers are low (28), and the recent jump in geomagnetic activity is causing significant absorption and poor band conditions. Most HF bands from 80m to 20m are experiencing 🔴 Poor propagation, with only 17m and 15m showing 🟠 Fair potential. Operators should expect challenging conditions for DX and limited opportunities on higher bands, with best results on lower frequencies and digital modes. Plan for rapid changes and keep an eye on space weather updates.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use digital modes (FT8, JT65, PSK31) for improved weak-signal performance under poor HF conditions.
• Lower your expectations for SSB and CW contacts, especially for DX on 20m and above.
• Focus on 17m and 15m during daylight for any chance of longer paths; otherwise, stick to local/regional contacts on 40m/80m.
• Short skip and NVIS may be possible on 40m/80m, but expect high absorption and fading.
• If contesting, maximize your time on 17m/15m and use spotting networks to find rare openings.
• For VHF/UHF, monitor auroral activity if you are in northern latitudes, but don’t expect much enhancement today.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Limited to local/regional contacts, best at night but still poor.
• 20m: Marginal throughout the day, with brief fair windows possible at local noon.
• 17m/15m: Best shot for DX, especially late morning to early afternoon.
• 12m/10m: Largely closed; check for sporadic E or brief openings during peak solar hours.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline: Watch for brief enhancements on 17m and 15m during sunrise/sunset, but expect limited reach.
• Aurora: Elevated aurora index (8) may enable auroral propagation on VHF for northern operators.
• Special events: None noted; focus on monitoring clusters for surprise openings.
• East-west paths may be slightly more reliable than north-south due to geomagnetic storming.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Currently, 17m and 15m offer the only fair propagation windows, mainly during daylight hours. All other bands (80m, 40m, 20m, 12m, 10m) are showing poor conditions throughout the day and night. For any chance of DX or longer skip, focus on 17m and 15m during late morning to afternoon. Local contacts may still be possible on 80m/40m, but expect high noise and fading.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 5.67 – Indicates a minor geomagnetic storm (G1), causing significant HF absorption and degraded propagation.
• Solar Flux: 102 – Moderate, but not enough to support strong high-band openings, especially with current geomagnetic disturbance.
• Sunspot Number: 28 – Low, limiting ionization and further reducing higher band performance.
• Space Weather Overview: The combination of low sunspots and moderate solar flux, with a sudden geomagnetic spike, is producing tough HF conditions.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index was very low and stable (0–1.67) for most of the past 48 hours, but spiked sharply to 5.67 in the last reporting period.
• This sudden increase marks the onset of a geomagnetic storm, likely due to a CME or high-speed solar wind stream.
• Trend: Conditions have rapidly worsened, and operators should expect continued absorption and fading until the K-index subsides.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B3.2 – Low-level X-ray flux, so no major HF blackouts, but not enough to boost ionization.
• Solar Wind: 512 km/s – Elevated, contributing to geomagnetic storming and increased absorption.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux (1790) and proton flux (1890) are both elevated, which can further degrade HF propagation and increase noise.
• Aurora Activity: 8 – High auroral activity; VHF operators in high latitudes may see auroral propagation, but this also means more absorption for HF.
• Helium Line: 109.4 – Slightly above average, indicating some solar activity, but not enough to offset geomagnetic impacts.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past several months, solar flux has gradually decreased from values above 150 to the current 102, and sunspot numbers have dropped from over 120 to the current 28.
• This downward trend in solar activity, combined with today’s geomagnetic storm, is producing some of the worst HF conditions seen in recent weeks.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect continued challenging HF conditions for the next 24–48 hours as the geomagnetic storm runs its course.
• If the K-index drops back below 3, look for gradual improvement, especially on 17m and 15m.
• Monitor real-time space weather for sudden changes; brief band openings may occur as the storm subsides.
• VHF/UHF: Aurora may persist for northern operators, but no significant tropo or E-skip expected.
• Best bands: 17m and 15m during daylight; worst bands: 80m, 40m, 20m, 12m, 10m.
• Alert: Stay tuned for further geomagnetic warnings and be ready for rapid changes in band conditions.