Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and slightly elevated geomagnetic conditions. The solar flux is at 111 (with recent months trending higher), and the sunspot number is 73, supporting decent daytime propagation on the mid-bands but limiting higher bands. The K-index is currently at 3, indicating unsettled geomagnetic conditions that may cause some fading and absorption, especially on polar and east-west paths. Expect best results on 20m during the day and evening, with lower bands (80m/40m) improving after sunset. 10m and 12m remain mostly closed for long-haul DX, so focus efforts on the more reliable bands.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m for daytime and evening DX; it’s the most reliable band under current conditions.
• Try 17m and 15m for regional and some DX contacts, especially during midday hours.
• 80m and 40m will be better after dark—use these for local and regional QSOs at night.
• Digital modes (FT8, PSK31) are recommended on marginal bands (15m, 17m, 40m) to take advantage of weak-signal capabilities.
• If you’re chasing DX, monitor grayline times for enhanced propagation on 40m and 20m.
• Use directional antennas if possible to minimize QRM and maximize SNR, especially with unsettled geomagnetic activity.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning (local time)
• 20m: Excellent from late morning through evening
• 17m/15m: Good midday, fair into late afternoon
• 12m/10m: Poor all day; check for sporadic E or brief openings around local noon
• Grayline (sunrise/sunset): Enhanced DX on 40m and 20m

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m band offers the most consistent DX, especially on north-south paths and during grayline.
• 17m and 15m may support regional and some intercontinental contacts midday.
• Grayline enhancement will benefit 40m and 20m—watch for short-lived DX openings at sunrise and sunset.
• Aurora level is moderate (3), so northern operators might catch some auroral propagation on VHF/UHF, but HF polar paths may be degraded.
• No major solar flares reported, so no immediate risk of sudden HF blackouts.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

The 20m band is the standout performer today, offering good propagation throughout the day and evening. 17m and 15m are fair—worth checking for regional and some DX, especially midday. 80m and 40m are poor during daylight but improve to fair after sunset, making them best for night-time local/regional contacts. 12m and 10m are largely closed due to low solar flux and sunspot numbers, so don’t expect much activity there.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 — Unsettled geomagnetic conditions; possible mild fading, especially on higher-latitude paths.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 111 — Moderate; supports reliable mid-band propagation but limits higher bands.
• Sunspot Number: 73 — Below recent peaks; enough for 20m/17m activity, but not enough to fully open 10m/12m.
• Space Weather: No major flares or proton events; X-ray flux at B4.4 (quiet).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has been fluctuating around 3 over the past 24 hours, indicating persistent unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
• No major geomagnetic storms, but enough activity to cause occasional QSB (fading) and absorption, especially on polar and east-west paths.
• Conditions are stable but unsettled; monitor for sudden changes if solar wind increases.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B4.4 (quiet)—no risk of sudden HF blackouts; stable background conditions.
• Solar Wind Speed: 442 km/s—slightly elevated, contributing to unsettled geomagnetic activity and mild absorption.
• Electron Flux: 4930—elevated, which may increase D-layer absorption on lower bands during the day.
• Aurora Level: 3—moderate; some auroral activity possible at high latitudes, which may degrade polar HF paths but could enhance VHF/UHF for northern stations.
• Helium Line: 116.8—stable, indicating no major solar trend shifts at the moment.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent solar data shows a decline in both solar flux and sunspot numbers from earlier in the year, with current values lower than the spring peak. This trend explains the reduced high-band activity and the reliance on 20m/17m for reliable DX. Watch for further changes as solar cycle activity fluctuates.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect continued moderate solar activity with no major flares forecasted.
• K-index likely to remain in the 2-3 range, so unsettled geomagnetic conditions may persist.
• 20m will continue to be the most reliable DX band; 17m/15m will offer fair conditions, especially midday.
• 80m/40m will remain best at night; 10m/12m will stay mostly closed.
• No major alerts or warnings at this time, but monitor for sudden geomagnetic changes if solar wind increases.