Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary:
HF propagation is currently moderate, with solar flux at 106 and a sunspot number of 49, both on the lower side compared to earlier this year. Expect good conditions on 20m during both day and night, while 40m and 80m are struggling during daylight but improve after sunset. Higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) are mostly quiet, with poor propagation due to the declining solar activity. Geomagnetic conditions are mostly stable (K-index 3), but recent elevated A-index (19) suggests some lingering disturbances. For best results, focus on the mid-bands and take advantage of evening and nighttime windows.

💡 Operator Tips

• Target 20m for reliable DX and regional contacts throughout the day and night.
• 80m and 40m: Operate after sunset for improved coverage; daytime conditions are poor.
• 15m, 12m, 10m: Limited openings—monitor for brief sporadic E or solar upticks, but don't expect much.
• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) for weak signal work, especially on higher bands.
• Check grayline times for enhanced long-path DX, especially on 20m and 40m.
• Portable and low-power stations: Focus on 20m and 40m after dark for best results.
• Contesters/DXers: Concentrate efforts on 20m and 17m, watch for short-lived high-band openings.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Best at night and early morning; avoid midday.
• 20m: Good all day and night—most reliable for DX.
• 17m & 15m: Fair during midday and afternoon; limited at night.
• 12m & 10m: Poor throughout; check during local noon for any short-lived openings.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m band: Most consistent for DX, especially along the grayline (sunrise/sunset).
• 40m: Good for transcontinental and transatlantic paths during the night.
• Grayline enhancement: Watch for improved signals to antipodal regions at local dawn/dusk.
• High latitude paths: Slight auroral activity (Aurora: 2) may impact polar routes, but not severe.
• No major special propagation events expected, but monitor for sudden X-ray or solar wind changes.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m is the most reliable band for all-day operation and DX. 80m and 40m are best at night and early morning, with poor daytime performance. 17m and 15m offer occasional fair conditions, mainly during daylight. 12m and 10m are mostly closed—check only for brief, sporadic openings.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 (moderate geomagnetic activity; minor disturbances possible, but not severe)
• Solar Flux: 106 (on the low side, indicating limited high-band propagation)
• Sunspot Number: 49 (declining trend, less ionization for upper HF bands)
• Space Weather Overview:
  • Solar activity is quiet to moderate, with no major flares.
  • X-ray flux at B6.5—no risk of HF blackouts.
  • Aurora level is low (2), minimal impact except at high latitudes.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend: Stable to slightly elevated, with values around 3—no major geomagnetic storms, but some unsettled periods.
• Conditions are generally stable for HF, with only minor absorption or fading on polar paths.
• No significant geomagnetic warnings at this time.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B6.5 (low)—no HF blackout risk, stable D-layer absorption.
• Solar Wind: 437.5 km/s (moderate)—not high enough to trigger major geomagnetic storms, but keep an eye on sudden increases.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron flux: 2290 (moderate)—may cause minor polar absorption, but not severe.
  • Proton flux: 11 (quiet)—no SIDs or polar cap absorption events.
• Aurora Activity: 2 (low)—VHF/UHF aurora propagation unlikely, but northern operators may notice slight auroral flutter.
• Helium Line: 107.6 (stable)—no major solar trend shifts detected.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent solar trend: Both solar flux and sunspot numbers have declined steadily since June, with solar flux dropping from ~138 to 105 and sunspots from ~93 to 60.
• This downward trend means high bands (15m and above) are less likely to open, while lower bands become more important for reliable contacts.

🔮 3-Day Forecast