Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation is currently challenging, with most bands from 80m through 10m rated as poor during the day and only fair on 80m/40m at night. This is due to a combination of moderate solar flux (recently declining), low sunspot numbers, and increased geomagnetic activity. Expect limited long-distance contacts on higher bands, with low-band nighttime operation offering the best opportunities. Operators should focus on local and regional contacts and monitor for any short-lived improvements, especially around sunrise and sunset.

💡 Operator Tips:

• Concentrate on 80m and 40m during nighttime for best results; use NVIS (Near Vertical Incidence Skywave) antennas for local/regional work.
• Digital modes like FT8 and PSK31 can help make contacts under poor conditions.
• Keep power levels moderate to high and use efficient antennas to overcome absorption.
• For DX, watch for brief grayline enhancements at sunrise/sunset, but expect limited openings.
• If contesting, stick to lower bands and be patient—signal reports may be weaker than usual.

⏰ Best Operating Times

🌍 DX Opportunities

• DX is limited today due to low solar flux and moderate geomagnetic activity.
• Watch for grayline propagation around sunrise and sunset, especially on 40m and 80m.
• North-south paths may be slightly better than east-west.
• No significant special propagation events or auroral openings expected.
• VHF/UHF: Aurora index is low, so no aurora-related openings anticipated.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis: The best chances for HF contacts are on 80m and 40m during the evening and night, with only fair conditions. All higher bands (20m–10m) are rated as poor at all times, so expect little to no propagation there. Focus your efforts on the lower bands after sunset for any meaningful activity.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 (moderate geomagnetic activity)—can cause increased absorption and signal fading, especially on higher bands.
• Solar Flux: 105 (10.7cm)—below average, indicating weak ionization and poor support for higher bands.
• Sunspot Number: 66—low, which means less energy for ionospheric propagation.
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares, but X-ray activity is at C1.0, which is moderate and could cause minor shortwave fadeouts.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has been moderate (around 3) recently, indicating unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
• No signs of severe storms, but the trend suggests persistent minor disturbances.
• Expect continued absorption and fading, especially on higher frequencies.
• If K-index drops below 2, conditions may improve slightly.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: C1.0—moderate, could cause minor HF blackouts on sunlit side.
• Solar Wind: 491 km/s—elevated, which can enhance geomagnetic activity and absorption.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux 1920, proton flux 12—moderate, may contribute to increased D-layer absorption.
• Aurora Activity: 4—low, so auroral propagation on VHF/UHF is unlikely.
• Helium Line: 109.0—suggests solar activity is trending downward, supporting the recent drop in solar flux.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past 7 months, solar flux has dropped from ~138 to 105, and sunspot numbers have fallen from over 100 to about 60.
• This downward trend means overall HF propagation has been worsening, especially on higher bands.
• Expect continued challenges until solar activity increases again.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect continued poor conditions on all HF bands, with only slight improvement possible if geomagnetic activity decreases.
• 80m and 40m will remain the best options, especially at night.
• No significant VHF/UHF openings or auroral events are forecast.
• Monitor for brief grayline enhancements, but keep expectations modest.
• No alerts or warnings at this time—just be prepared for tough band conditions and use digital modes to maximize your chances.