Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation is currently moderate due to a solar flux of 93 and a sunspot number of 12, both on the low side compared to recent months. Expect lower MUFs and generally fair to good conditions on the lower bands (80m–20m), while higher bands (17m–10m) will be more challenging, especially for long-haul DX. Geomagnetic activity is quiet with a K-index of 2, so there’s minimal disturbance from Earth’s magnetic field. Operators should focus on the lower HF bands for reliable contacts, especially during night and early morning hours. Plan for shorter skip distances and less frequent high-band openings.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 40m and 20m for daytime and evening DX, as these bands offer the most consistent propagation under current solar conditions.
• Digital modes (FT8, PSK31, RTTY) will outperform SSB/CW on higher bands (15m–10m) due to their sensitivity in weak-signal conditions.
• Check grayline times for enhanced propagation, especially on 40m and 20m for intercontinental paths.
• Vertical antennas or dipoles at modest heights will perform well on lower bands; consider using low-noise receiving antennas for 80m and 40m at night.
• Monitor real-time spots and be ready to switch bands quickly if an opening occurs, especially on 17m and 15m.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Best at night and early morning (local time), fair during the day.
• 20m: Good throughout the day and into early evening.
• 17m & 15m: Fair during midday and early afternoon; limited openings.
• 12m & 10m: Poor throughout the day and night; rare short openings possible around local noon.
• Grayline: Enhanced propagation on 40m and 20m at sunrise/sunset.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline paths are your best bet for long-haul DX on 40m and 20m—target sunrise/sunset for trans-equatorial and east-west paths.
• Northern hemisphere: Look for short-path openings to southern latitudes in the early morning on 20m.
• No significant auroral activity (Aurora index: 1), so polar paths are stable but not enhanced.
• No major solar flares or sudden ionospheric disturbances reported, so expect stable but subdued DX conditions.
• Watch for sporadic-E on 10m/6m, but chances are low given the current solar numbers.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

The best performance is on 20m, which remains good throughout the day and night. 40m and 80m are also good at night and early morning, making them reliable for regional and some DX contacts. 17m and 15m are fair but may yield short, weak openings around midday. 12m and 10m are generally poor and likely closed for most operators, with only brief, localized openings possible.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2 (quiet geomagnetic field) — minimal disruption, stable conditions.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 93 (low) — supports lower MUFs, favors lower HF bands.
• Sunspot Number: 12 (very low) — indicates limited ionization, especially for high bands.
• Space Weather Overview:
  • X-ray Flux: B2.4 (low background) — no risk of radio blackouts.
  • Solar Wind Speed: 386 km/s (moderate) — no significant geomagnetic disturbances.
  • Aurora Index: 1 (very low) — no auroral propagation expected.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend: Stable and low over the past 24 hours, with no significant spikes.
• Impact: Quiet geomagnetic conditions mean minimal absorption on polar paths and no major disruptions to HF propagation. This stability favors lower band performance and reliable regional communications.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B2.4 — Very low X-ray flux, so no risk of sudden HF blackouts or D-layer absorption spikes.
• Solar Wind: 386.1 km/s — Moderate speed, not enough to trigger geomagnetic storms.
• Particle Environment: No significant electron or proton flux reported, so no increased noise or absorption.
• Aurora Activity: Index at 1 — No auroral propagation expected; VHF/UHF operators in northern latitudes should not expect enhanced conditions.
• Helium Line: 107.0 — Indicates low to moderate solar activity, consistent with the current quiet trend.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent months show a steady decline in solar flux and sunspot numbers since June, with values dropping from ~138 to ~105 for solar flux and from ~93 to ~60 for sunspots.
• This downward trend means fewer high-band openings and more reliance on 40m–20m for DX.
• Long-term context: We are in a quiet phase of the solar cycle, so expect generally subdued HF conditions until solar activity increases.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Solar activity is expected to remain low with no major flares or geomagnetic storms forecast.
• K-index should stay in the 1–2 range, maintaining quiet geomagnetic conditions.
• HF conditions: 20m and 40m will continue to be the most reliable for DX and regional contacts. 80m will be strong at night. 17m and 15m may see brief, weak openings during midday. 12m and 10m will remain challenging.
• VHF/UHF: No auroral or enhanced propagation expected.
• Operator advice: Focus on lower bands, use digital modes for weak signals, and monitor for any sudden solar events. No alerts or warnings at this time.