Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary:
Today’s HF propagation is shaped by a moderate solar flux of 136 and a sunspot number of 78, both indicative of stable but not peak solar activity. The K-index is at 0, signaling very quiet geomagnetic conditions—great news for HF operators seeking low noise and reliable paths. Expect good conditions on the lower bands (80m–20m), while higher bands (15m–10m) remain challenging, especially for DX. With low geomagnetic disturbance and no major solar flares, now is an excellent time for regional and some intercontinental contacts, especially during local grayline. Focus operations on the lower bands for best results.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use 80m, 40m, and 20m for reliable contacts, especially at night and during early morning.
• Digital modes (FT8, PSK31) will outperform SSB/CW on higher bands (15m–10m) due to weaker propagation.
• Vertical antennas or dipoles at moderate heights will help maximize low-band performance.
• For DX, target grayline periods—sunrise and sunset—for enhanced propagation, especially on 40m and 20m.
• Monitor solar and geomagnetic updates throughout the day for any sudden changes.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning; good for regional and some DX.
• 20m: Good all day, with enhanced DX around sunrise and sunset.
• 17m/15m: Fair during midday; try digital modes for best results.
• 12m/10m: Poor throughout the day; openings possible during local noon or with sporadic-E, but expect limited activity.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline propagation on 40m and 20m offers the best shot at long-haul DX—check paths toward sunrise/sunset regions.
• 20m is the most reliable band for intercontinental contacts today.
• 17m/15m may open briefly to equatorial and southern latitudes during peak daylight.
• Watch for short-lived 10m/12m openings around local noon, especially if sporadic-E develops.
• Aurora activity is low, so VHF auroral DX is unlikely.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
80m, 40m, and 20m are the most reliable for both local and some DX contacts throughout the day and night. 17m and 15m offer fair conditions, mainly for shorter paths and digital modes. 12m and 10m are mostly closed, with only rare, brief openings possible—focus efforts elsewhere unless you spot a sudden opening.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 0 (very quiet) — Minimal geomagnetic disturbance, excellent for HF.
• Solar Flux: 136 (moderate) — Supports good propagation on lower and mid bands, but not enough for strong high-band openings.
• Sunspot Number: 78 — Indicates moderate solar activity; not at solar maximum, but sufficient for stable conditions.
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux is at B2.8 (low), so no HF blackouts expected.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend: Stable at 0 over the last 24 hours, indicating a prolonged period of geomagnetic quiet.
• Impact: Expect low noise, minimal fading, and stable propagation, especially on the lower bands.
• No geomagnetic storms or warnings are present—ideal for all HF operations.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B2.8 — Low X-ray flux, meaning no risk of sudden HF blackouts or D-layer absorption events.
• Solar Wind Speed: 357 km/s — Typical, not elevated; no increased risk of geomagnetic disturbance.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 1590 — Slightly elevated but not at storm levels; may cause minor polar absorption, but unlikely to impact most users.
  • Proton Flux: 98 — Quiet, no radiation storm risk.
• Aurora Activity: 2 — Very low; auroral propagation on VHF/UHF is not expected.
• Helium Line: 106.1 — Indicates stable solar output; no significant trend toward increased activity.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Historical Solar Trends:
  • Solar flux has remained in the 120–138 range over the past 6 months, with a slight dip in April but generally stable.
  • Sunspot numbers have fluctuated between 77 and 101, showing moderate but not peak solar activity.
  • These trends support the current pattern: reliable lower band propagation, with higher bands less active.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Propagation is expected to remain stable over the next three days, with no major solar or geomagnetic events forecast.
• K-index should stay low, supporting continued good conditions on 80m–20m.
• 12m and 10m will likely remain poor; monitor for sporadic-E or sudden solar upticks.
• No alerts or warnings for HF or VHF operators at this time.
• Recommendation: Continue to focus on 80m–20m for reliable operation, and check higher bands periodically for surprise openings.