Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation is currently challenging due to elevated geomagnetic activity and only moderate solar flux. The solar flux index is at 141 with a recent sunspot number of 145, but a high K-index of 5 and strong solar wind are causing significant disturbances, especially on the lower bands. Expect noisy conditions and reduced DX opportunities on most HF bands, with only the higher bands (15m, 17m, 12m, 10m) offering limited windows for contacts. Operators should focus on shorter skip and regional QSOs, and be prepared for rapid changes in band quality throughout the day.

💡 Operator Tips:

• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) to maximize weak signal work, as SSB/CW may struggle through noise.
• Check band conditions frequently—openings may be short and unpredictable.
• For DX, try 15m and 17m during local daytime; for regional contacts, 40m may offer brief openings at sunrise/sunset.
• Monitor the K-index; if it drops, expect rapid improvement, especially on 20m and above.
• Lower your noise floor: use narrow filters and noise reduction features to combat geomagnetic-induced static.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 17m and 15m are your best bets for any DX or longer-haul contacts, especially during daylight hours.
• 12m and 10m may open briefly during strong solar peaks, but expect poor night performance.
• 80m, 40m, and 20m are mostly closed or very poor due to geomagnetic disturbances—try only for local contacts.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• DX is limited today due to high geomagnetic activity, but 15m and 17m may support short-lived openings, especially on north-south paths.
• Grayline propagation is suppressed, but check 17m and 15m at sunrise/sunset for possible brief enhancements.
• Auroral activity is elevated (Aurora: 9), so northern operators may experience auroral flutter or enhanced VHF propagation.
• Watch for sporadic E on 10m and 6m, especially in the afternoon and early evening.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:

• Best bands: 17m and 15m are the most reliable for daytime operation, with fair conditions throughout the day and into the evening.
• 12m and 10m may provide fair conditions during the day but will likely close at night.
• 80m, 40m, and 20m are significantly degraded by geomagnetic disturbances and are not recommended for most operations today.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 5 (elevated geomagnetic activity) — expect increased noise, fading, and poor HF propagation.
• Solar Flux: 141 (moderate) — supports higher band openings, but not enough to overcome geomagnetic effects.
• Sunspot Number: 145 (moderate to good) — potential for band openings if geomagnetic activity subsides.
• Space Weather: X-ray flux at C3.3 (moderate flare activity), solar wind speed high at 608.9 km/s, and aurora level at 9 (active).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has recently spiked to 5, indicating a geomagnetic storm in progress.
• Over the past 24 hours, the trend has been worsening, with increasing geomagnetic instability.
• Expect degraded HF conditions until the K-index drops below 4; monitor for improvement.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: C3.3 — moderate solar flare activity; risk of short HF blackouts, especially on sunlit paths.
• Solar Wind: 608.9 km/s — high speed, contributing to geomagnetic storms and auroral activity.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux at 3230 and proton flux at 141 — elevated levels can cause further HF absorption and noise.
• Aurora Activity: 9 — high; northern operators may see auroral propagation on VHF/UHF, but HF bands will suffer increased absorption and flutter.
• Helium Line: 121.5 — moderate; indicates ongoing solar activity but not at peak levels.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past several months, solar flux and sunspot numbers have shown a declining trend from late 2025 highs (solar flux 160+, SSN 125+) to current moderate values (solar flux ~125, SSN ~101).
• This downward trend, combined with today's geomagnetic storm, is producing subpar HF conditions.
• If solar activity increases or geomagnetic activity subsides, expect rapid improvement, especially on 20m and above.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Next 3 days: Expect continued unsettled geomagnetic conditions with possible improvement if the K-index drops.
• HF bands: 17m and 15m will remain the best options; 12m/10m may open for brief periods.
• VHF/UHF: Watch for auroral propagation in northern latitudes; sporadic E may enhance 6m/10m.
• Advice: Monitor real-time K-index and solar data; be ready for sudden changes. Use digital modes and focus on higher bands for best results.