Amateur Radio Propagation Report

📋 Propagation Summary

HF propagation is severely impacted today due to very high geomagnetic activity. The current K-index is 6+, indicating a strong geomagnetic storm, which is causing widespread absorption and signal fading across all HF bands. Although the solar flux is moderate at 120 and sunspot numbers are fair (96), these positives are being overwhelmed by the disturbed geomagnetic field. Expect poor conditions on all HF bands, with limited opportunities for DX or reliable contacts. Operators should be prepared for rapid changes and weak signals, and consider alternate activities or monitoring for band improvements.

💡 Operator Tips

• Focus on local and regional contacts using NVIS (Near Vertical Incidence Skywave) on 80m and 40m, as long-haul DX is unlikely.
• Use digital modes (FT8, JT65, PSK31) which can decode weaker signals than SSB or CW.
• Lower your expectations for DX and contesting—today is a good day for antenna work, equipment testing, or listening.
• Monitor the bands for any short-lived openings, especially near local sunrise/sunset.
• If you operate VHF/UHF, check for auroral propagation, especially in northern latitudes.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best chance for local/regional contacts during night and early morning, but overall conditions remain poor.
• 20m/17m/15m: Typically best during daylight, but today expect poor performance at all times.
• 10m/12m: Usually open during high solar flux, but currently closed due to geomagnetic storm.
• VHF/UHF: Watch for auroral openings in the evening if you are in higher latitudes.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• DX is very limited today due to high K-index and auroral absorption.
• Brief grayline enhancements may occur around sunrise/sunset, but expect only short, weak openings.
• Auroral propagation may allow VHF/UHF contacts (especially CW/SSB) for stations in northern regions—listen for fluttery signals on 6m, 2m.
• Watch for band improvements as geomagnetic conditions settle in the coming days.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

All HF bands (80m–10m) are experiencing poor conditions throughout the day and night due to the ongoing geomagnetic storm. No band currently stands out as "best"—all are similarly affected. Short skip and local contacts may still be possible on 80m/40m, but expect high noise and deep fading. High bands (20m–10m) are essentially closed for DX.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 6.33 (Severe geomagnetic storm—expect major HF disruptions and auroral absorption)
• Solar Flux: 120 (Moderate, usually supports good HF, but negated by geomagnetic storm)
• Sunspot Number: 96 (Fair, but not enough to overcome storm effects)
• Space Weather Overview: X-ray flux is at B7.0 (low), but high solar wind and particle fluxes are driving geomagnetic activity.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has surged from quiet (K=0–3) to severe storm levels (K=6–7) over the past 24 hours.
• This rapid increase is causing major HF absorption, signal fading, and band closures.
• No sign yet of conditions settling—remain alert for further disturbances or possible improvement in the next 24–48 hours.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B7.0 (low)—no immediate risk of HF blackouts from solar flares.
• Solar Wind: 651.5 km/s (very high)—driving strong geomagnetic storms and auroral activity.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux 2310, Proton flux 3610—elevated levels contribute to D-layer absorption and poor HF.
• Aurora Activity: 7 (high)—expect auroral absorption, especially on polar paths and high-latitude VHF/UHF.
• Helium Line: 111.7—indicates active solar conditions, but current storm is the dominant factor.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show a declining trend in solar flux and sunspot numbers, dropping from highs in late 2025 to current moderate levels. However, today's geomagnetic storm is the main factor suppressing propagation, not solar flux or sunspot decline.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Next 24–48 hours: Expect continued poor HF conditions as geomagnetic storm persists. Monitor for possible improvement as K-index drops.
• Day 2–3: If geomagnetic activity subsides, expect gradual recovery—watch 20m and 40m for first signs of improvement.
• Recommendations: Stay flexible, check for band openings around sunrise/sunset, and use digital modes for best results. VHF/UHF operators in northern latitudes should watch for auroral propagation opportunities.