Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary

HF propagation is currently favorable on the higher bands thanks to a strong solar flux of 169 and a sunspot number of 128. The geomagnetic field is quiet to unsettled with a K-index around 2-3, supporting stable conditions for most HF operations. Expect excellent opportunities on 20m, 17m, and 15m throughout the day and evening, while 12m and 10m will be best during daylight hours. Lower bands (80m, 40m) are quiet at night but less effective during the day. Operators should take advantage of the improved high-band propagation for DX and contesting, especially during local daylight and grayline periods.

💡 Operator Tips

• Target high bands (20m–10m) for daytime DX—conditions are especially strong for east-west and north-south paths.
• Nighttime operations: Focus on 80m and 40m for reliable regional and some DX contacts.
• Digital modes (FT8, FT4, RTTY) will perform well, especially on 12m and 10m where SSB/CW may be marginal at night.
• Monitor solar and geomagnetic updates for sudden changes; brief disturbances may still occur with recent K-index fluctuations.
• Use directional antennas to maximize DX on higher bands and take advantage of grayline openings.
• Contesters: Plan for high rates on 20m–15m during the day, and 40m/80m at night.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Best at night and early morning (local time)
• 20m, 17m, 15m: Excellent all day, peaking late morning through afternoon and into early evening
• 12m & 10m: Best from late morning to late afternoon; limited at night
• Grayline (sunrise/sunset): Enhanced long-path DX on 40m–20m

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m, 17m, 15m: Wide open for intercontinental DX, especially during daylight and grayline
• 12m, 10m: Good chances for trans-equatorial and F2-layer DX during peak solar hours
• Grayline enhancement: Look for rare DX on 40m and 20m at local sunrise/sunset
• Aurora: Minor auroral activity (level 3) may provide VHF/UHF openings in high latitudes
• Watch for short-lived band openings on 10m during solar flux peaks

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

The best performance is on 20m, 17m, and 15m during the day and early evening, with 12m and 10m also open but closing after sunset. 80m and 40m are excellent at night for local and regional contacts, with some DX possible around grayline. 10m and 12m may offer surprise DX during solar peaks but will be mostly closed at night.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2–3 (quiet to unsettled)
  • Low geomagnetic activity, supporting stable HF propagation
• Solar Flux: 169 (very strong)
  • High solar flux means enhanced MUF (Maximum Usable Frequency), opening higher bands
• Sunspot Number: 128
  • Sustained sunspot activity keeps upper bands open and supports long-haul DX
• Space Weather:
  • No major disturbances reported; X-ray flux is elevated (C4.6), but no significant HF blackouts

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index peaked above 5 briefly two days ago, causing some minor disturbances, but has since settled to 2–3.
• The trend over the last 24 hours is stable to slightly improving, with no major geomagnetic storms expected.
• Operators can expect reliable HF conditions unless a sudden geomagnetic spike occurs.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: C4.6 (moderate)
  • Indicates active solar regions; risk of minor HF blackouts is low but monitor for sudden flares.
• Solar Wind: 418 km/s (moderate)
  • No significant geomagnetic impact at this speed; stable conditions for HF.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron flux: 4800 (elevated, but not extreme)—can cause minor polar absorption, mainly at high latitudes.
  • Proton flux: 43 (quiet)—no significant impact on HF.
• Aurora: Level 3 (minor)
  • Some auroral activity possible at high latitudes; VHF/UHF operators in northern regions may see brief auroral propagation.
• Helium Line: 125.9
  • Indicates ongoing solar activity; trend is steady, supporting continued good HF conditions.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show solar flux holding strong between 150–170 and sunspot numbers above 110, supporting continued high-band openings. The past week's K-index data shows only brief unsettled periods, with most hours in the quiet range. This stability, combined with high solar activity, means excellent propagation on 20m–10m and reliable night-time operation on 80m/40m.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Solar flux and sunspot numbers are expected to remain high, keeping 20m–10m open for DX.
• Geomagnetic activity should stay low to moderate (K-index 2–3), barring any sudden solar events.
• Best bands: 20m, 17m, 15m (all day); 12m, 10m (daytime); 80m, 40m (night)
• Worst bands: 80m, 40m (daytime); 10m, 12m (night)
• No major warnings—but keep an eye on solar flare alerts for possible short-term blackouts, especially on the daylight side.
• Action: Plan for DX and contesting on high bands, and enjoy strong night-time conditions on the low bands!