Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary

HF propagation is severely impacted today due to a strong geomagnetic storm, with the K-index at 6 (G2 level). All HF bands from 80m to 10m are experiencing 🔴 Poor conditions, and operators should expect significant absorption, high noise, and reduced maximum usable frequencies (MUF). Despite a moderate solar flux (118) and a sunspot number of 69, the high geomagnetic activity is the dominant factor, causing widespread signal fading and poor DX prospects. Operators are advised to focus on local and NVIS contacts, as long-haul HF and DX will be extremely challenging. Monitor for improvements, as conditions may change rapidly once geomagnetic activity subsides.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use lower bands (80m/40m) for local and regional contacts, especially during nighttime, but expect higher noise and fading.
• Digital modes (FT8, JT65, PSK31) are more likely to succeed than SSB/CW under these poor conditions.
• Short skip and NVIS propagation may be possible on 80m and 40m for stations within a few hundred kilometers.
• Check antennas and grounding to minimize noise pickup, and consider using noise blankers or DSP filtering.
• If contesting or chasing DX, be patient—monitor for sudden band openings, especially after geomagnetic activity decreases.
• VHF/UHF: No significant auroral activity reported, so expect normal conditions on these bands.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• Note: All times are subject to rapid change if geomagnetic storm weakens.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• DX is very limited today due to high geomagnetic disturbance.
• Grayline propagation is unlikely to be effective, but check 40m/80m at sunrise/sunset for possible short openings.
• No significant aurora for VHF/UHF DX, but monitor for updates if K-index remains elevated.
• Watch for sudden band improvements as the storm subsides—DX windows may be brief and unpredictable.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Currently, all HF bands (80m-10m) are rated as 🔴 Poor throughout the day and night due to the ongoing geomagnetic storm. The lower bands (80m, 40m) may still support some local or regional contacts, especially using digital modes, but expect high noise and fading. Higher bands (20m-10m) are essentially closed for long-distance work. Monitor for any improvement as the K-index drops.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 6 (Severe geomagnetic storm; expect major HF disruptions, high absorption, and auroral effects at high latitudes)
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 118 (Moderate; would normally support decent HF propagation if not for geomagnetic storm)
• Sunspot Number: 69 (Moderate; solar activity is not especially high, but enough for some ionization)
• Space Weather Overview: The main limiting factor is the high geomagnetic activity, not low solar flux or sunspots.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has sharply increased over the past 24 hours, peaking at 6 (G2 storm level) after a period of moderate values (2-4).
• This spike indicates a recent geomagnetic storm, likely from a CME or high-speed solar wind stream.
• Conditions have worsened significantly compared to previous days, with a rapid transition from quiet to stormy geomagnetic activity.
• Expect continued poor HF conditions until the K-index drops below 4.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B4.7 (Low-level X-ray flux; no major solar flares, so no additional HF blackouts expected)
• Solar Wind: 649 km/s (Elevated; fast solar wind is fueling the geomagnetic storm and causing HF absorption)
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 3700 (Elevated; can contribute to increased D-layer absorption and noise)
  • Proton Flux: 9 (Low; no significant proton event)
• Aurora Activity: 1 (Low; auroral propagation on VHF/UHF is not expected at this time)
• Helium Line: 121.4 (Slightly elevated; indicates some ongoing solar activity, but not extreme)
• Practical Impact: The main issue is the geomagnetic storm—expect high absorption, poor MUF, and fading on all HF bands.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent solar flux has been moderate (around 150), and sunspot numbers have been slowly declining from late 2025 into 2026.
• Despite decent solar flux, HF propagation is dominated by the current geomagnetic storm.
• Historical K-index shows a quiet period followed by a sudden spike to storm levels, directly correlating with today's poor HF conditions.

• Solar flux has fluctuated between 140-160 over the past 6 months, supporting generally good HF conditions when geomagnetic activity is low.
• Sunspot numbers have trended downward slightly, but remain sufficient for HF propagation outside of storm periods.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Next 24 hours: Expect continued poor HF conditions if K-index remains elevated. Monitor for sudden improvement as the geomagnetic storm subsides.
• Day 2: If geomagnetic activity decreases (K-index <4), expect gradual recovery on lower bands (80m/40m) first, with higher bands (20m/17m) following.
• Day 3: If quiet conditions return, look for a return to normal winter band openings, especially on 20m and below.
• Recommendations: Check band conditions frequently, use digital modes, and be ready for rapid changes. No auroral VHF/UHF enhancements expected unless K-index spikes again.