Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary:
HF propagation today is being shaped by a moderate solar flux (around 100-108) and a low K-index (K=1), which means quiet geomagnetic conditions. Sunspot numbers have been steadily declining over the past several months, and higher bands (12m/10m) are struggling, while the lower and mid bands (80m-20m) are offering the most reliable contacts. Expect good evening and nighttime conditions on 40m and 80m, with 20m remaining solid throughout the day. DX is possible, especially on 20m, but higher bands will be limited. For best results, focus on the lower bands and take advantage of the calm geomagnetic field.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m, 40m, and 80m for reliable contacts; 20m is your best bet for daytime DX.
• Digital modes (FT8, PSK31) will outperform SSB/CW on marginal bands, especially 17m and 15m.
• Check grayline times for enhanced DX, especially on 40m and 80m.
• Verticals and dipoles will perform well on lower bands; consider using low-noise receive antennas at night.
• Monitor solar data for any sudden changes, but with K-index low, expect stable conditions for contests or nets.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Best at night and early morning (local time)
• 20m: Good all day, with peak DX around late morning to afternoon
• 17m & 15m: Fair during late morning to early afternoon
• 12m & 10m: Poor throughout, but check for brief openings around local noon, especially during any solar upticks

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m band offers the most consistent DX paths, especially east-west during daylight.
• 40m and 80m open up for long-haul DX around local sunset and sunrise (grayline).
• Grayline enhancement is strong for low bands—watch for short, strong openings to distant continents.
• No significant aurora or polar path enhancements expected due to low geomagnetic activity.
• Watch for sporadic-E on 10m/12m, but expect only brief, localized openings.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

• 80m and 40m: Best performance at night and during grayline; solid for regional and some DX.
• 20m: Reliable for both local and DX, especially midday; less affected by declining solar activity.
• 17m and 15m: Marginal, but worth checking during daylight, especially for digital modes.
• 12m and 10m: Largely closed; only brief, weak openings possible.
• DXers: Focus on 20m for long-haul, and 40m/80m for grayline paths.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index (Geomagnetic Activity): Very low (K=1) — indicates a quiet geomagnetic field, excellent for HF stability.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): Moderate (100-108) — supports good propagation on 20m and below, but not enough for consistent high-band openings.
• Sunspot Number: Low (41-45) — correlates with weaker high-band conditions.
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux is at B5.1, indicating low solar flare activity.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend: Stable and low over the past 24 hours, with no significant geomagnetic disturbances.
• Impacts: Quiet geomagnetic field means minimal absorption and fading, especially at high latitudes. Expect stable propagation, especially on lower bands.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B5.1 (low) — No risk of HF blackouts; normal daytime absorption.
• Solar Wind Speed: 342 km/s — Typical, not high enough to trigger geomagnetic storms.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux 2100, Proton flux 17 — Both at background levels, so no unusual propagation effects.
• Aurora Activity: 2 (very low) — No auroral propagation expected; VHF/UHF operators should not expect auroral enhancement.
• Helium Line: 111.0 — Indicates stable solar conditions; no major trend changes.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent solar flux and sunspot trends:
  Over the past 7 months, both solar flux and sunspot numbers have declined steadily (solar flux from ~138 to ~108, sunspots from ~101 to ~45). This trend is leading to weaker high-band propagation, with 20m and below now dominating HF activity.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Propagation will remain stable with low geomagnetic activity and moderate solar flux.
• 20m, 40m, and 80m will continue to be the best bands for reliable contacts and DX.
• No significant space weather events are forecast; expect similar conditions for the next several days.
• Watch for minor improvements if solar flux ticks up, but high bands (12m/10m) will likely remain poor.
• No alerts or warnings for HF or VHF operators at this time.