Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation is currently in a transitional state, with moderate solar flux (145) and a high sunspot number (161) supporting decent daytime conditions on the higher bands. Geomagnetic activity is low to moderate (K-index 3), so most bands remain open, but some minor disturbances may cause occasional fading or noise, especially on the lower bands. 20m, 17m, and 15m are the sweet spots for reliable contacts throughout the day and evening, while 12m and 10m are less consistent but may offer brief openings. Operators should expect variable conditions and take advantage of the best bands during daylight hours.

💡 Operator Tips

• Focus on 20m, 17m, and 15m for the most reliable DX and regional contacts.
• Digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) will outperform SSB/CW on marginal bands like 12m and 10m.
• For DX, work the grayline (dawn/dusk) on 40m and 20m for enhanced long-path openings.
• Monitor 10m and 12m for short, sporadic E-skip openings, especially midday.
• Use low-noise antennas and bandpass filters to mitigate minor geomagnetic noise, especially on 40m and 80m.
• Contesters: Concentrate efforts on 20m/15m during the day and 40m at night for highest rates.

⏰ Best Operating Times

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline propagation is strong on 40m and 20m—target sunrise/sunset for best DX.
• 20m and 17m offer the most consistent intercontinental paths, especially east-west.
• Sporadic E may bring surprise openings on 10m and 12m, especially across North America and Europe.
• Aurora activity is low (Aurora: 3), so VHF/UHF auroral propagation is unlikely.
• Watch for short-lived high-latitude paths on 15m and 20m during minor geomagnetic upticks.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m, 17m, and 15m are the most reliable bands for both local and DX contacts throughout the day and into the evening, with good conditions. 12m and 10m are more variable—expect only fair openings during midday, with poor or closed conditions at night. 80m and 40m are underperforming during the day but may offer fair local and regional contacts at night, especially for NVIS and short-haul work.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 — Moderate geomagnetic activity. Minor disturbances possible, but not enough to close most bands.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 145 — Above average, supporting good ionization for higher HF bands.
• Sunspot Number: 161 — High, indicating active solar regions and generally favorable HF propagation.
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares or storms reported. X-ray flux at B8.0 (quiet), solar wind speed moderate (443.5 km/s), and aurora activity low (3).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has remained mostly stable in the low-to-moderate range (2–3) over the past 24 hours, indicating quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
• No significant geomagnetic storms or rapid fluctuations detected—conditions are stable, with only minor short-term disturbances possible.
• This stability favors consistent HF propagation, especially on the higher bands.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B8.0 — Low-level solar X-ray flux, meaning no risk of HF blackouts or sudden fadeouts.
• Solar Wind: 443.5 km/s — Moderate speed; may cause minor geomagnetic noise, but not enough for major disruptions.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux is elevated (2210), but proton flux is low (11); this supports decent F-layer ionization without significant absorption.
• Aurora Activity: Low (3) — No auroral propagation expected on VHF/UHF; northern operators will not see enhanced auroral modes.
• Helium Line: 129.2 — Stable, suggesting no major solar events or trends toward increased solar activity.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent solar flux and sunspot trends show a gradual decline since the peak in late 2025 (solar flux 160+, sunspots 124+), but current values remain supportive of good propagation.
• Historical data indicates we are past the recent solar maximum, but still in an active phase of the solar cycle, so higher bands (15m, 17m, 20m) remain productive.
• No major solar events in the past month; propagation should remain predictable.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Solar activity expected to remain moderate, with solar flux holding near 120–145 and sunspot numbers staying elevated.
• K-index forecast to remain in the 2–3 range, so no major geomagnetic storms are anticipated.
• HF propagation will continue to favor 20m–15m during daylight and early evening, with 12m/10m offering brief openings.
• No alerts or warnings for amateur radio operators at this time—continue to monitor for sudden solar events, but expect stable conditions for the next 72 hours.
• Best bands: 20m, 17m, 15m.
• Worst bands: 80m, 40m (daytime); 10m, 12m (night).
• VHF/UHF: No auroral or enhanced propagation expected.