Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation is currently moderate, with solar flux at 111 and a sunspot number of 34, both on the lower end compared to recent months. The K-index is stable around 2–3, indicating generally quiet geomagnetic conditions, though not at solar minimum levels. Expect good conditions on 20m throughout the day and night, while higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) are mostly poor. Lower bands (80m, 40m) will be fair by day and good at night. For best results, focus on the 20m band and plan evening or nighttime operations on the lower bands.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m for reliable daytime and nighttime contacts, including DX.
• 80m and 40m will perform best after sunset; use these for regional and intercontinental QSOs at night.
• Digital modes (FT8, PSK31) will outperform SSB/CW on marginal bands like 15m and 17m.
• Monitor grayline times for enhanced DX, especially on 40m and 20m.
• Keep antennas tuned for lower bands during the day, and switch to higher bands only for short-range or sporadic-E opportunities.
• VHF/UHF: No significant aurora or enhanced propagation expected; stick to local FM, repeaters, or satellites.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning (local time)
• 20m: Good all day and night; peak around midday and during grayline
• 17m/15m: Fair during late morning to early afternoon
• 12m/10m: Poor throughout; try during local noon for short-range or sporadic openings

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline propagation is favorable on 40m and 20m—watch sunrise/sunset for long-haul DX.
• 20m offers the most consistent international paths, especially east-west.
• 15m and above: Limited DX, but check for short-lived openings, especially to equatorial regions.
• No auroral activity expected, so VHF DX is unlikely.
• No major solar events or special propagation phenomena forecasted.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:

• 20m is the most reliable band for both local and DX contacts, maintaining good conditions all day and night.
• 80m and 40m are best at night, with fair conditions during the day—ideal for regional and some DX work after dark.
• 17m and 15m are marginal; try digital modes for best results, especially during midday.
• 12m and 10m are largely closed; only attempt if you spot a sudden opening or during contests.
• No significant VHF/UHF propagation enhancements are expected.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2–3 (quiet to unsettled) — minimal geomagnetic disturbance, good for HF.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 111 (current), but recent months averaged 150+ — lower solar energy, limiting higher band openings.
• Sunspot Number: 34 (current), down from 110–130 recently — fewer sunspots mean less ionization, especially for high bands.
• Space Weather: No major flares or proton events; X-ray flux at B3.3 (quiet).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has remained mostly between 1 and 3 over the past 24 hours, with only brief unsettled periods.
• Conditions are stable to improving compared to earlier in the week, with no geomagnetic storms.
• Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions to continue, supporting stable HF propagation, especially on lower bands.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B3.3 (low) — No risk of HF blackouts from solar flares.
• Solar Wind: 489 km/s — Slightly elevated, but not enough to trigger geomagnetic storms.
• Electron Flux: 3280 — Moderate; no significant impact on HF, but may cause minor absorption at polar paths.
• Proton Flux: 35 — Quiet, no risk of polar cap absorption events.
• Aurora: 3 (low) — No auroral propagation expected; VHF/UHF bands remain unaffected.
• Helium Line: 120.1 — Indicates stable solar activity; no major upswings or downswings in solar output.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent solar flux has dropped from 150–160 (late 2025) to 111 now, reflecting a downward trend in solar activity.
• Sunspot numbers have also decreased from 120–130 to the low 30s, further reducing high-band propagation.
• Historical data shows we are past the recent solar peak, so expect more reliable conditions on lower bands and fewer high-band openings.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Solar and geomagnetic activity expected to remain quiet, with K-index staying below 3.
• HF propagation will continue to favor 20m and lower bands; high bands (15m and above) will remain poor unless a sudden solar uptick occurs.
• No alerts or warnings for major space weather events.
• Best bands: 20m (all day), 40m/80m (night)
• Worst bands: 12m/10m (closed)
• Recommendation: Focus on 20m for DX, 40m/80m for evening/night QSOs, and use digital modes to maximize contacts on marginal bands.