Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary

Today’s HF propagation is being shaped by a mix of moderately high solar flux (164) and a disturbed geomagnetic field (K-index 4). Expect fair conditions on most HF bands, but with some noticeable absorption and fading, especially on the lower bands during the day. The higher bands (20m–10m) are open but not at their best, with fair daytime performance and poor nighttime propagation above 15m. Operators should be alert for rapid band changes and short-lived DX windows, especially during local sunrise and sunset. Plan for variable conditions and be ready to adapt your operating strategy throughout the day.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use digital modes (FT8, FT4, RTTY) to maximize QSOs during marginal conditions, especially on 12m and 10m.
• CW and SSB will work best on 20m and 17m during daylight and early evening.
• For DX, target grayline periods (sunrise/sunset) on 40m and 20m for enhanced long-path openings.
• Vertical antennas or beams will help punch through increased absorption; consider using low-noise receive antennas for 80m/40m.
• Watch for auroral flutter on northern paths, especially on 40m and below.
• If contesting, focus efforts on 20m/17m for the most consistent results.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best after sunset and through the night; avoid daytime for DX.
• 20m/17m: Open most of the day and into early evening; best for intercontinental QSOs.
• 15m/12m/10m: Late morning to afternoon offers the best chance for openings, but expect only fair conditions and rapid QSB.
• Grayline: All bands benefit, but especially 40m and 20m for long-haul DX.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline paths (sunrise/sunset) are your best shot for trans-equatorial and long-path DX, especially on 40m and 20m.
• 20m and 17m are supporting fair intercontinental propagation, particularly east-west.
• Northern latitude paths may experience auroral effects—watch for flutter and enhanced absorption.
• Short, sporadic 10m/12m openings possible during peak solar hours—monitor FT8 for surprise DX.
• No major special propagation events, but keep an ear out for sudden enhancements during X-ray flare peaks.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

20m and 17m are the most reliable bands throughout the day, supporting both local and DX contacts. 15m is open but less robust, with fair conditions and some QSB. 12m and 10m provide fair daytime opportunities but close quickly after sunset. 80m and 40m are best reserved for nighttime and early morning, with poor daytime performance due to absorption.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 4 (active) — Indicates increased geomagnetic disturbance, causing higher absorption and fading, especially on polar and high-latitude paths.
• Solar Flux: 164 (high) — Supports good ionization for higher bands (20m–10m), but geomagnetic activity limits full potential.
• Sunspot Number: 132 (moderately high) — Favors openings on 15m, 12m, and occasional 10m, but not enough for sustained worldwide 10m propagation.
• Space Weather Overview: X-ray activity at C1.3, solar wind speed elevated (515 km/s), and moderate aurora (level 4) all contribute to variable HF conditions.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

The K-index has fluctuated over the past 24 hours, peaking above 5 (minor storm) and now settling at 4. This trend shows recent geomagnetic storms with some improvement, but conditions remain unsettled. Expect continued absorption and fading, especially on polar and high-latitude paths. Watch for further improvement if the K-index drops below 3 in the coming hours.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: C1.3 — Moderate X-ray flux; risk of minor HF blackouts during flare peaks, especially on sunlit paths.
• Solar Wind: 515 km/s — Elevated speed increases geomagnetic activity, causing more absorption and QSB.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux 6350, Proton flux 45 — High electron counts can cause polar absorption and degrade HF, especially at higher latitudes.
• Aurora Activity: Level 4 — Moderate auroral activity; northern operators may notice auroral flutter and absorption on 40m and below, with occasional VHF aurora possible.
• Helium Line: 126.1 — Indicates ongoing solar activity; trend is stable but not spiking, so no major flare risk at this time.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show solar flux and sunspot numbers holding steady in the 150–160 range, supporting decent high-band propagation. However, the last 48 hours brought geomagnetic storms (K-index >5), temporarily degrading conditions. As the geomagnetic field stabilizes, expect gradual improvement, especially on 20m and above.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect gradual improvement as geomagnetic activity subsides, with K-index likely dropping below 3.
• 20m and 17m will remain the most reliable bands for DX and daytime operation.
• 15m and 12m may see better openings if solar flux stays high and geomagnetic activity decreases.
• Nighttime low bands (80m/40m) will improve as absorption drops, especially for local/regional contacts.
• Watch for sudden band enhancements during any X-ray flare peaks or if the K-index drops rapidly.
• No major space weather warnings, but remain alert for short-term auroral events and flare-driven blackouts.