Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary

HF propagation today is shaped by moderate solar activity and very quiet geomagnetic conditions. The solar flux is at 113, with a sunspot number of 83, indicating average ionospheric support for HF. The K-index is low (1), meaning geomagnetic disturbances are minimal—great news for stable propagation, especially on the lower bands. Expect good conditions on 20m throughout the day and night, while higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) will be more challenging, especially for long-haul DX. Operators should focus on the lower and mid bands for reliable contacts, with some limited opportunities on 17m and 15m.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use 20m as your go-to band for both local and DX contacts—conditions are good day and night.
• 40m and 80m will perform best at night; try these for regional and intercontinental QSOs after sunset.
• For DX, operate around sunrise and sunset to take advantage of grayline propagation, especially on 20m and 17m.
• Digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) will outperform SSB/CW on the higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) under current conditions.
• Keep an eye on the K-index—if it rises, expect rapid changes on the higher bands.
• Vertical antennas and low-noise receiving setups will help maximize weak-signal work, especially on the lower bands.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• Morning: 20m is open and stable; 40m/80m are winding down from nighttime enhancement.
• Day: 20m remains strong; 17m/15m offer some regional and short-path DX, but 12m/10m are mostly closed.
• Evening: 40m/80m improve for regional and DX; 20m still usable.
• Night: 40m/80m are best for long-haul; 20m can support late-night DX, especially on digital modes.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline openings on 20m and 17m are your best bet for intercontinental DX—target sunrise/sunset paths.
• 20m offers the most reliable global coverage, especially during daylight and twilight.
• 15m may open briefly to equatorial and southern latitudes during midday, but expect weak signals.
• 10m/12m are mostly closed—watch for unexpected short openings during local noon, especially on digital modes.
• No significant aurora or polar path enhancement is expected due to low geomagnetic activity.
• VHF/UHF: Aurora and Es propagation are minimal; focus on tropo and local work.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

• 20m is the most consistent performer, with good conditions around the clock.
• 40m and 80m are best at night and during the evening, supporting both regional and some DX.
• 17m and 15m offer fair conditions—good for regional and some DX, especially around midday.
• 12m and 10m are mostly poor—expect little to no activity except for possible sporadic-E or digital mode surprises.
• DXers: Focus on 20m and 17m at sunrise/sunset; contesters should work 20m for rate, and 40m/80m after dark.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 1 — Very quiet geomagnetic field, ideal for HF stability and low absorption.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 113 — Moderate level, supports good propagation up to 20m, limited on higher bands.
• Sunspot Number: 83 — Average sunspot count, enough for decent ionization but not strong enough for robust high-band openings.
• Space Weather: No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux is at B4.7 (low).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has trended steadily downward over the past 24 hours, from 3-4 (minor disturbance) to a stable 1 (quiet).
• Current conditions are very quiet, with no geomagnetic storms or auroral activity expected.
• This stability favors low-band and mid-band propagation, reduces fading, and supports long-haul DX paths.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B4.7 — Low-level X-ray flux, meaning no risk of HF blackouts or sudden ionospheric disturbances.
• Solar Wind: 378.9 km/s — Moderate speed, not strong enough to trigger geomagnetic storms.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux at 3180 and proton flux at 10 — Normal levels, so no increased absorption or polar cap absorption events.
• Aurora Activity: 1 — Very low, so no auroral propagation expected on VHF/UHF; northern operators will see quiet bands.
• Helium Line: 109.9 — Indicates stable solar activity with no major upswings or downswings in the near term.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past several months, solar flux and sunspot numbers have declined from late 2025 highs, leading to today's more modest propagation.
• This trend means lower bands (80m, 40m, 20m) are more reliable, while high bands (15m, 12m, 10m) are less likely to open except during solar upticks or sporadic events.

• Solar flux peaked above 150 in late 2025/early 2026, but has since dropped to the low 100s.
• Sunspot numbers have also decreased, reflecting a gradual decline in solar cycle activity.
• Operators should expect this pattern to continue, favoring lower bands for the coming weeks.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• HF conditions will remain stable, with quiet geomagnetic activity (K-index at or below 2).
• 20m and 40m will continue to be the most productive bands for both local and DX work.
• 15m, 12m, and 10m will remain challenging, with only brief or sporadic openings possible.
• No major space weather events are forecast—no alerts or warnings for HF or VHF operators.
• Best strategy: Focus on 20m during the day, 40m/80m at night, and use digital modes for weak-signal work on higher bands. Watch for grayline DX on 20m and 17m.