Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary:
HF propagation today is being impacted by elevated geomagnetic activity and low solar flux. The K-index is at 4 (unsettled to active), and the solar flux has dropped to 110 with zero sunspots currently visible. This combination is causing degraded conditions across most HF bands, especially on the higher frequencies (12m, 10m). Expect noisy bands, reduced MUF, and weaker DX signals. For best results, focus on the lower bands during nighttime and use digital modes to overcome poor SSB/CW conditions.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use digital modes (FT8, JT65, PSK31) for better performance in weak and noisy conditions.
• 80m and 40m will be your best bets for regional and some DX contacts, especially after sunset.
• 20m and 17m may offer limited openings, mainly during daylight, but expect fading and QSB.
• 12m and 10m are mostly closed; check for sporadic-E or short, weak openings, but keep expectations low.
• Consider lowering your transmit power to reduce splatter in crowded bands, and use narrow filters to fight noise.
• Monitor grayline times for enhanced propagation on 40m and 20m.
• If you’re chasing DX, watch for short-lived openings and be ready to call quickly.

⏰ Best Operating Times

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline enhancement: Try 40m and 20m at local sunrise/sunset for best DX chances.
• Northern paths may be more disturbed due to auroral activity (Aurora index: 3).
• Equatorial and trans-equatorial paths could be less affected, so try working north-south.
• No major DXpeditions are favored by current conditions, but watch clusters for surprise openings.
• Aurora: VHF/UHF auroral propagation is possible at high latitudes, but HF is degraded in those regions.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

The lower bands (80m, 40m) are performing best, especially at night and early morning, offering fair to good conditions for local and some regional DX. 20m, 17m, and 15m are fair throughout the day but suffer from QSB and limited MUF. 12m and 10m are mostly closed due to low solar flux and high geomagnetic activity.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 4 (Unsettled to active)
  Geomagnetic field is disturbed, causing absorption and fading, especially on polar paths.
• Solar Flux: 110 (Low)
  Indicates low ionization in the F-layer, resulting in lower MUF and poor high-band propagation.
• Sunspot Number: 0
  No sunspots means minimal solar activity, further reducing HF band performance.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

The K-index has risen sharply over the last 24 hours, peaking at 5.33 and remaining elevated (4–5 range) for much of the day. This trend shows recent geomagnetic storms have disturbed the ionosphere, with only brief periods of quiet. Conditions are currently unsettled to active, and HF propagation is suffering as a result. No immediate improvement is expected until the K-index drops below 3.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B4.0
  Low-level X-ray flux, no risk of major HF blackouts, but not enough to boost propagation.
• Solar Wind: 654.7 km/s
  High solar wind speeds are fueling geomagnetic disturbances, leading to absorption and fading.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 2380 (elevated; can cause polar absorption)
  • Proton Flux: 394 (moderate; not at storm levels, but contributes to absorption)
• Aurora: 3
  Active aurora; northern operators may see auroral flutter on HF and possible VHF aurora openings.
• Helium Line: "ch"
  No significant trend; solar activity remains low.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show a declining trend in solar flux and sunspot numbers, with the current solar flux at 110 and sunspots at zero. This is a significant drop from the 150+ flux and 110+ sunspot numbers seen in late 2025. The ionosphere is less ionized, resulting in lower MUF and shorter skip distances. Expect continued poor conditions on higher bands until solar activity picks up.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• HF propagation will remain challenging as geomagnetic activity stays elevated and solar flux remains low.
• Lower bands (80m, 40m) will continue to offer the best opportunities, especially at night.
• 20m and above: Expect only brief, weak openings—mainly during local midday.
• VHF/UHF: Watch for auroral propagation at high latitudes, but no significant tropospheric or sporadic-E events expected.
• No major improvements are forecast until the K-index drops and sunspot activity returns. Stay flexible, use digital modes, and check the bands frequently for short-lived openings.