Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary

Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and a recent uptick in geomagnetic disturbance. The solar flux is at 117 (with recent monthly values higher), and the sunspot number is 60, which supports decent conditions on the lower and mid bands, but higher bands are struggling. The K-index has climbed to 4.33, indicating active geomagnetic conditions that may cause fading (QSB) and absorption, especially at higher latitudes and on higher frequencies. Expect good performance on 20m and below, with 17m and 15m offering some opportunities, but 12m and 10m are mostly poor. Operators should focus on the lower bands, especially during nighttime, and watch for short-lived DX windows on the mid bands.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m for daytime DX; 40m and 80m will be your best bet for reliable evening and night contacts.
• Digital modes (FT8, FT4, PSK31) are recommended on all bands, especially as conditions are variable and SSB/CW may be challenging on higher bands.
• Monitor the K-index: If it drops, higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) may briefly open—be ready to jump on them.
• For contesting or DXing, focus on grayline times and be flexible with band choices.
• Check antennas and grounding—geomagnetic activity can increase local noise and static.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning for local and regional QSOs.
• 20m: Good all day and into early evening for both local and DX contacts.
• 17m/15m: Try late morning to mid-afternoon; openings may be short.
• 12m/10m: Limited—watch for brief openings around local noon or after geomagnetic quieting.
• Grayline (sunrise/sunset): Enhanced long-path and DX on 40m, 20m, and occasionally 17m.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline propagation is favorable on 40m and 20m—watch for DX to the antipodes at sunrise and sunset.
• 20m remains the most reliable band for intercontinental DX, especially east-west paths.
• 17m and 15m may open briefly to equatorial and southern hemisphere regions during midday.
• Auroral activity is moderate (Aurora index: 9)—northern operators may see enhanced VHF/UHF auroral propagation, but HF polar paths may be degraded.
• No major solar flares reported, so expect stable but not exceptional DX conditions.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

The best performance is on 80m and 40m during the night and early morning, making them ideal for both local and DX contacts. 20m is consistently good throughout the day and evening, offering the most reliable band for DX. 17m and 15m are fair—worth checking for short openings, especially midday. 12m and 10m are poor across all time periods due to low solar flux and elevated geomagnetic activity; only check these bands if you notice a sudden drop in the K-index or spot reports of openings.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 4.33 (Active) — Indicates increased geomagnetic disturbance, which can cause HF fading and absorption, especially at higher latitudes.
• Solar Flux: 117 (Moderate) — Supports good propagation on 20m and below, but is below the threshold for consistent 10m/12m openings.
• Sunspot Number: 60 (Moderate) — Sufficient for mid-band activity, but not enough for strong high-band enhancement.
• Space Weather Overview: X-ray flux is at B5.2 (no major flares), solar wind is elevated at 547.6 km/s, and aurora activity is moderate (9).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

The K-index has shown notable fluctuations over the past 24 hours, with periods of quiet (K=0.33–1.33) and several spikes up to K=4.33. This pattern indicates unstable geomagnetic conditions—operators may experience variable band quality, especially on higher frequencies. The trend is currently worsening, so expect some absorption and QSB, particularly on polar and trans-equatorial paths.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B5.2 (low) — No significant HF blackouts expected; stable conditions for most modes.
• Solar Wind: 547.6 km/s (elevated) — Can contribute to geomagnetic disturbances and auroral activity, especially at higher latitudes.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux at 3680 (moderate), proton flux at 14 (quiet)—no major impacts, but keep an eye on sudden changes.
• Aurora Activity: 9 (moderate) — Possible auroral propagation on VHF/UHF for northern stations; HF polar paths may be degraded.
• Helium Line: 121.0 — Indicates stable to slightly declining solar activity compared to previous months.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent months show solar flux and sunspot numbers trending slightly downward from late 2025 highs, but still within a range that supports good HF propagation on 20m and below. The last 24 hours have seen increased geomagnetic activity, which is temporarily reducing high-band performance.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect continued moderate solar activity with solar flux likely to remain in the 110–120 range.
• K-index may remain elevated; watch for further geomagnetic disturbances that could cause short-term band closures or absorption, especially on higher frequencies.
• Best bands: 20m, 40m, 80m—focus your efforts here for reliable contacts.
• Worst bands: 12m, 10m—unlikely to open except for brief sporadic-E or after geomagnetic quieting.
• No major alerts or warnings at this time, but stay tuned for sudden changes in geomagnetic conditions, especially if solar wind speed increases further.