Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is being challenged by moderate solar activity and elevated geomagnetic disturbance. The solar flux is in the low 100s, and the K-index is currently at 5, indicating unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions. Expect fair openings on the higher bands (17m, 15m, 12m, 10m) during daylight, but poor conditions on the lower bands (80m, 40m, 20m) both day and night. Aurora levels are low, so VHF auroral propagation is unlikely. For best results, focus your efforts on the higher HF bands during local daytime and use digital modes to maximize your chances of making contacts.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use FT8, FT4, and other digital modes for better performance under marginal conditions, especially on 12m and 10m.
• Shorten your skip distance: Expect more regional than long-haul DX, especially on 20m and below.
• Monitor the K-index: If it drops, expect a quick improvement, especially on 20m and 15m.
• Check grayline times for possible brief DX openings, especially on 17m and 15m.
• Vertical antennas and low-noise receiving setups will help on noisy lower bands.
• Logbook and cluster tools: Watch for real-time spots to catch fleeting band openings.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Limited, but best chance during local nighttime for regional contacts.
• 20m: Poor overall, but try late morning and early evening for possible short openings.
• 17m & 15m: Fair during daylight hours, especially late morning to mid-afternoon.
• 12m & 10m: Fair only during local midday; expect rapid fade as geomagnetic activity persists.
• Grayline: Brief enhancement possible on 17m and 15m at sunrise/sunset.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• DX is limited today due to geomagnetic disturbance, but check for short-path openings on 17m and 15m during your local afternoon.
• Grayline propagation may briefly enhance paths to antipodal regions on higher bands.
• No significant aurora: VHF auroral DX is not expected.
• Watch for sporadic-E on 10m and 12m, especially in the late morning and early afternoon.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

The 17m and 15m bands are your best bets today, offering fair propagation throughout daylight and into the evening. 12m and 10m may open for brief periods during the day but will likely close at night. 80m, 40m, and 20m are expected to remain poor all day and night due to the combination of low solar flux and high geomagnetic activity.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 5 — Indicates active geomagnetic conditions; expect absorption and signal fading, especially on polar and transpolar paths.
• Solar Flux: 127 — Moderate, but not high enough for strong high-band openings; supports fair propagation on 17m-10m during daylight.
• Sunspot Number: 93 — Moderate, but has been trending downward over recent months, which is a sign of declining solar activity.
• Space Weather Overview: Elevated solar wind and X-ray flux (C2.0) are contributing to geomagnetic disturbance and HF absorption.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has recently increased to 5, showing a shift from quieter to more disturbed geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours.
• This uptick is likely to cause increased absorption and fading on all HF bands, especially at higher latitudes.
• Watch for rapid changes; if the K-index drops, expect a quick improvement in HF propagation.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: C2.0 — Indicates moderate solar flare activity; possible short HF blackouts on sunlit paths.
• Solar Wind: 693.5 km/s — Elevated speed; can drive geomagnetic storms and degrade HF conditions.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux (2230) and proton flux (75) are both elevated, which can increase D-layer absorption and cause fading.
• Aurora Activity: 2 — Low; auroral propagation on VHF/UHF is not expected.
• Helium Line: 118.8 — Slightly elevated, suggesting ongoing solar activity but not at storm levels.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past several months, solar flux and sunspot numbers have declined steadily, from a peak in early 2026 (F10.7 ~138, SSN ~101) to current values (F10.7 ~108, SSN ~45).
• This downward trend means less ionization in the F-layer, reducing maximum usable frequencies (MUF) and shortening band openings, especially on 20m and above.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• HF conditions are expected to remain challenging for the next few days if geomagnetic activity persists.
• Monitor the K-index: If it falls below 4, expect a quick rebound on 20m and 15m.
• Best bands: 17m and 15m during daylight; digital modes recommended.
• Worst bands: 80m, 40m, and 20m will remain poor for DX.
• No major alerts or warnings at this time, but stay tuned for sudden solar or geomagnetic events that could further impact propagation.