Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary

Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and quiet geomagnetic conditions. The solar flux is at 117, with a sunspot number of 50, both a bit lower than last month’s averages, which means mid and lower HF bands are favored. The K-index is a calm 2, indicating minimal geomagnetic disturbance and generally stable conditions for most bands. Expect good performance on 20m and 40m, with 80m and 15m offering fair results. Higher bands (12m, 10m) are mostly poor, so focus on the lower frequencies for reliable contacts. Use digital modes or CW for best results, especially if you’re chasing DX.

💡 Operator Tips

• Best Bands: Concentrate your efforts on 20m and 40m for daytime and evening operations.
• Digital Modes: Use FT8, FT4, or CW for improved reach, especially on higher bands where SSB may struggle.
• DX Strategy: Take advantage of grayline periods around sunrise and sunset for long-haul contacts, especially on 40m and 20m.
• Antenna Tuning: Ensure your antennas are optimized for the lower bands, as 10m and 12m will be challenging today.
• Contesting: If participating, focus on 20m/40m for rate, and check 80m after dark for regional multipliers.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m & 40m: Best at night and early morning; fair during the day.
• 20m: Good all day and into the evening.
• 17m & 15m: Fair throughout the day; may open for short periods in late morning/early afternoon.
• 12m & 10m: Poor all day; only try during peak solar hours or for local contacts.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline Enhancement: Look for DX on 40m and 20m during local sunrise and sunset—grayline propagation is favorable.
• 20m Daytime DX: Good opportunities for intercontinental contacts, especially east-west paths.
• Northern Paths: Aurora activity is low (index 5), so polar routes are stable.
• Special Events: No major space weather events expected, so conditions should remain steady for DXers.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

20m is the most reliable band throughout the day and evening, offering consistent performance for both local and DX contacts. 80m and 40m are best at night and early morning, with fair conditions during daylight. 17m and 15m may provide some openings but are generally only fair. 12m and 10m are mostly closed due to low solar flux and sunspot numbers—expect little to no activity here.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2 (quiet geomagnetic field, minimal disturbance—good for HF propagation)
• Solar Flux: 117 (moderate; supports 20m and 40m, but not enough for reliable 10m/12m)
• Sunspot Number: 50 (lower than previous months; limits higher band openings)
• Space Weather Overview: No major solar flares or disturbances; X-ray flux at B4.5 (low), so no HF blackouts expected.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

The K-index has fluctuated between 1.3 and 4 over the past 48 hours, with brief increases but generally trending downward and stable. This means geomagnetic conditions have improved and are currently quiet, reducing the risk of auroral absorption or polar path disruptions. Expect continued stability unless a new solar event occurs.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B4.5 (low; no risk of HF blackouts or sudden fadeouts)
• Solar Wind: 409 km/s (moderate; not enough to trigger geomagnetic storms)
• Particle Environment: Electron flux at 4860 (elevated but not extreme; minor impact on polar paths possible)
• Aurora Activity: 5 (low; VHF/UHF aurora propagation unlikely, HF polar paths stable)
• Helium Line: 122.9 (moderate solar activity, no significant trend up or down)

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Historical solar flux and sunspot numbers have been gradually declining since December, with current values lower than the recent 6-month average. This trend explains the weaker conditions on 10m/12m and the reliability of 20m/40m. No major solar events have disrupted the ionosphere recently, so propagation should remain steady.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• HF Bands: Expect continued good conditions on 20m and 40m, fair on 80m and 15m, and poor on 12m/10m.
• Geomagnetic Activity: K-index likely to remain low (1–3), so no major disruptions expected.
• DX Prospects: Best during grayline and on 20m; higher bands will remain challenging unless solar activity increases.
• Operator Advice: Stick with lower bands for reliability, use digital modes for marginal conditions, and keep an eye on solar updates for any sudden changes.