Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is showing moderate conditions, with solar flux at 101 and a sunspot number of 88—both slightly below the recent monthly averages, signaling a mild decline in solar activity. The K-index is low (2), indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions and minimal disturbance to HF signals. Expect good performance on 20m and 30m throughout the day and night, while higher bands (12m, 10m) remain mostly closed due to lower solar flux. Lower bands (80m, 40m) will offer reliable nighttime operation. Plan your DX and local contacts around these trends for best results.

💡 Operator Tips

• Focus on 20m and 30m for daytime DX and reliable evening contacts.
• 80m and 40m are your best bet for nighttime operation, especially for regional nets and ragchews.
• Digital modes (FT8, PSK31) will outperform SSB/CW on marginal bands like 15m and 17m.
• Monitor grayline times for enhanced long-path DX, especially on 40m and 20m.
• Use low-noise antennas and check your grounding—quiet geomagnetic conditions favor weak-signal work.
• VHF/UHF: No significant aurora or E-skip expected; stick to local FM/repeaters.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning (local sunrise/sunset)
• 30m/20m: Good all day and into the evening
• 17m/15m: Fair during daylight hours, especially late morning to mid-afternoon
• 12m/10m: Poor throughout the day; minimal openings expected
• Grayline: Try 40m and 20m at local sunrise/sunset for enhanced DX

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m is the most reliable band for intercontinental DX today, especially during daylight and early evening.
• 30m offers stable paths for digital and CW DX, especially during the night.
• Grayline enhancement: Watch for short-lived DX openings on 40m and 20m at sunrise/sunset.
• High-latitude paths (polar) are stable due to low K-index—try for Asia or northern Europe.
• No significant aurora—VHF auroral DX unlikely.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m and 30m are the most consistent performers, offering good conditions all day and night. 80m and 40m improve after sunset and remain good overnight. 15m and 17m are only fair during the day, with limited DX potential. 12m and 10m are largely poor—skip these unless you hear unexpected openings.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2 (quiet) — minimal geomagnetic disturbance, stable HF paths
• Solar Flux: 101 (moderate, slightly below recent averages) — supports 20m/30m, limits higher bands
• Sunspot Number: 88 (moderate) — enough for decent propagation, but lower than peak months
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux at B4.8 (quiet), no alerts

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• Recent K-index trend: Stable and low (mostly 0–2) over the past 24 hours
• Impact: Consistently quiet geomagnetic field means low absorption and steady propagation, especially on polar and high-latitude paths
• No geomagnetic storms or sudden disturbances detected

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B4.8 (quiet) — no HF blackouts expected; stable D-layer absorption
• Solar Wind: 468 km/s (moderate) — no significant geomagnetic enhancement; stable conditions
• Electron Flux: 1690 (normal) — no major impact on HF, but keep an ear out for minor noise on higher bands
• Proton Flux: 11 (quiet) — no polar cap absorption events
• Aurora: 3 (low) — no auroral propagation for VHF/UHF
• Helium Line: 107.7 — steady, no major solar trend shifts
• Practical Impact: No major disruptions; expect steady HF performance with no space weather surprises

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Recent solar flux has trended downward from ~138 in June to 116 in August and 101 today, reflecting a mild solar lull.
• Sunspot numbers have also declined from over 100 in May/June to the high 70s/low 80s now.
• Implication: Expect fewer high-band (12m/10m) openings, but 20m/30m remain solid. Lower bands (80m/40m) are less affected by the solar lull.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Propagation is expected to remain stable with continued low geomagnetic activity (K-index forecast to stay below 3).
• Solar flux likely to hover around 100–110, so 20m/30m will continue to be the best bands.
• No major flares or storms anticipated—plan for steady, predictable HF conditions.
• Best bands: 20m, 30m, 40m (night); Worst bands: 12m, 10m (mostly closed)
• No alerts or warnings—enjoy the calm space weather and make the most of the reliable bands!