Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary

Today’s HF propagation is shaped by moderate solar activity and a quiet geomagnetic field. The solar flux is at 119 with a sunspot number of 43, both a bit lower than last month’s averages, leading to average to fair conditions on most HF bands. The K-index is currently 2, indicating low geomagnetic disturbance, so noise and absorption are minimal. Expect good performance on 20m, while higher bands (12m/10m) remain challenging for DX. Lower bands (80m/40m) will be reliable at night but only fair during daylight. Operators should focus on mid-bands for daytime and low bands for nighttime contacts.

💡 Operator Tips

• Use 20m for daytime DX and reliable regional coverage.
• 80m and 40m are your best bets for evening and night, especially for NVIS and regional nets.
• Try digital modes (FT8, PSK31) on higher bands (15m/12m/10m) to take advantage of weak openings.
• For DX, target grayline periods (sunrise/sunset) on 40m and 20m.
• Keep an eye on the K-index; if it rises, expect more noise and fading, especially on polar and high-latitude paths.
• If you’re contesting, focus on 20m and 40m for the most consistent results.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best at night and early morning (local time)
• 20m: Best mid-morning through late afternoon
• 17m/15m: Fair throughout the day; try late morning to early afternoon for best results
• 12m/10m: Poor most of the day; check for brief openings around local noon or during solar events

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline propagation is favorable on 40m and 20m; target sunrise/sunset for long-haul DX.
• 20m is open for intercontinental paths during daylight, especially east-west.
• 15m may offer occasional short openings for DX, especially toward equatorial regions.
• Aurora activity is low (index 3), so VHF auroral propagation is unlikely.
• Watch for sporadic E on 10m/6m, but expect limited opportunities today.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m is the most reliable band throughout the day and night, supporting both local and DX contacts. 80m and 40m shine during the evening and night for regional and some DX work. 17m and 15m are only fair—try digital modes for weak-signal work. 12m and 10m are mostly closed or poor due to lower solar flux and sunspot numbers.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 2 — Quiet geomagnetic field; expect low noise and stable propagation.
• Solar Flux (10.7cm): 119 — Moderate; supports good conditions on 20m, but higher bands struggle.
• Sunspot Number: 43 — Below average; limits high-band (12m/10m) openings.
• Space Weather: No major flares or disturbances. X-ray background is at B4.7 (low).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index spiked to 6 two days ago, causing short-term disturbances, but has since dropped and stabilized at 2.
• Over the last 24 hours, the K-index has remained low and steady, indicating improving geomagnetic conditions.
• Expect continued quiet geomagnetic field, which is favorable for HF propagation, especially on polar and trans-equatorial paths.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B4.7 — Low X-ray flux; no risk of HF blackouts.
• Solar Wind: 459.7 km/s — Slightly elevated, but not enough to trigger major geomagnetic storms.
• Particle Environment:
  • Electron Flux: 3380 — Elevated, may cause minor absorption on polar paths but not a major concern.
  • Proton Flux: 10 — Quiet; no proton event impacts.
• Aurora Activity: 3 — Low; VHF/UHF auroral propagation is unlikely.
• Helium Line: 120.7 — Indicates stable solar activity; no major upswings or threats.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past 7 months, solar flux has ranged from ~140 to 160, but has dipped to 119 today, matching a slight decrease in sunspot numbers.
• Sunspot numbers have dropped from a peak of 134 (Aug 2025) to 112 (Jan 2026), and now to 43, reflecting the current average propagation.
• This trend suggests we are in a moderate phase of the solar cycle, so expect good conditions on lower and mid-bands, with high bands opening only during solar upticks.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Solar activity is expected to remain moderate, with no major flares or geomagnetic storms forecast.
• K-index should stay low (1-3), supporting continued stable conditions.
• HF propagation will remain similar: 20m best for DX, 80m/40m for night, 15m/17m for digital and occasional SSB.
• VHF/UHF: No aurora or major E-skip expected.
• Advice: Continue to monitor solar flux and K-index for any sudden changes, and take advantage of grayline openings for DX.