Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary: HF propagation today is shaped by moderate solar activity and very quiet geomagnetic conditions. The solar flux is at 100, with a sunspot number of 23, both on the lower side compared to recent months. The K-index is at 0, indicating extremely stable geomagnetic conditions—great news for HF reliability. Expect good conditions on 80m, 40m, and 20m throughout the day and night, while higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) will be more challenging. For best results, focus on the lower bands and take advantage of the quiet geomagnetic field for DX on the traditional night-time bands.

💡 Operator Tips:

• Prioritize 80m, 40m, and 20m for reliable contacts, especially for DX and ragchewing.
• Use digital modes (FT8, PSK31) on higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) to maximize weak signal performance.
• Daytime: Try 20m for intercontinental DX; 40m for regional and some DX.
• Nighttime: 80m and 40m will be quiet and productive for both local and DX.
• Keep antennas optimized for lower bands; consider verticals or dipoles for 40m/80m.
• With low geomagnetic activity, expect minimal QSB and stable signals.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m, 40m, and 20m are your best bets all day and night—expect consistent results.
• 17m and 15m may offer some openings, especially to the south or during peak solar hours, but will be spotty.
• 12m and 10m are largely closed; only try these bands for local contacts or if you see unexpected openings.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline paths on 40m and 20m are promising for long-haul DX—operate near sunrise and sunset for best results.
• 20m remains the most reliable for daytime DX, especially trans-equatorial and east-west paths.
• 80m and 40m will be excellent for night-time DX, with low noise and stable signals due to the quiet geomagnetic field.
• Watch for brief 15m/17m openings to the south or during local midday, especially on digital modes.
• No significant auroral activity expected, so polar and high-latitude paths are open and stable.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:

• 80m, 40m, and 20m are performing best, with good conditions at all times—ideal for both local and DX work.
• 17m and 15m are fair—possible short openings, especially for southern paths or with digital modes.
• 12m and 10m are poor—expect these bands to be mostly closed except for possible sporadic E or local contacts.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 0 (very quiet) – Geomagnetic field is extremely stable; expect low noise and steady signals.
• Solar Flux: 100 – Lower than recent months, limiting higher band openings but still supporting good conditions on 80m-20m.
• Sunspot Number: 23 – Low sunspot count, correlating with weaker high-band propagation and fewer shortwave openings.
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares or disturbances; X-ray activity is low (B3.3), supporting stable HF propagation.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• The K-index has remained at or near 0 for the past 24 hours, indicating a long stretch of very quiet geomagnetic conditions.
• No recent geomagnetic storms or disturbances—conditions are stable and favorable for HF, especially for polar and trans-auroral paths.
• Expect minimal fading (QSB) and low background noise, especially on the low bands.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B3.3 (low) – No risk of HF blackouts; stable D-layer absorption.
• Solar Wind: 493.9 km/s – Slightly elevated but not enough to trigger geomagnetic activity; no major impacts.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux at 2070, proton flux at 28 – Both are moderate; no significant propagation disruptions expected.
• Aurora Activity: Level 2 – Very low; auroral propagation on VHF/UHF is unlikely, and polar HF paths remain open.
• Helium Line: 109.6 – Indicates moderate solar activity, with no signs of major upswings or flare risk.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Over the past several months, solar flux has trended downward from ~138 in June/July to 116 in August and now 100—reflecting a slowdown in solar activity.
• Sunspot numbers have also declined, from over 100 in May/June to the current value of 23, further limiting high-band propagation.
• These trends suggest we are moving through a quieter phase of the solar cycle, so expect continued reliance on the lower HF bands for reliable contacts.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• HF bands (80m, 40m, 20m) will remain your best options, with stable conditions and minimal geomagnetic disturbance expected.
• Higher bands (15m, 12m, 10m) will continue to be challenging; monitor for brief openings, especially during local midday or with digital modes.
• No significant solar or geomagnetic storms are forecast—enjoy the quiet bands and plan for DX on the traditional night-time frequencies.
• No alerts or warnings at this time; continue to monitor for sudden changes, but expect steady, predictable propagation for the next few days.