Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary

HF propagation today is being shaped by moderate solar activity and recently unsettled geomagnetic conditions. The solar flux is at 118, with a sunspot number of 65, both a bit lower than last month, which means high bands (12m/10m) are underperforming, while mid bands (20m/17m/15m) are holding up. The K-index is currently at 3, following a period of higher geomagnetic activity, so expect some fading and variable conditions, especially on polar and trans-equatorial paths. 20m is your best all-around band today, with 40m/80m less reliable during daylight but improving at night. Operators should be alert for short-lived DX openings on 15m and 17m, especially around grayline. Watch for aurora effects at higher latitudes.

💡 Operator Tips

• Focus on 20m for reliable daytime and evening contacts, both local and DX.
• Try 17m and 15m for potential short DX windows, especially during late morning and early afternoon.
• 80m and 40m will be noisy and weak during the day but can support regional QSOs after sunset.
• Use digital modes (FT8, PSK31, RTTY) to punch through weaker conditions, especially on higher bands.
• If chasing DX, work the grayline on 20m/17m for best results.
• For contesters: concentrate efforts on 20m and 15m during the day, and 40m/80m after dark.
• Monitor auroral alerts if you are in northern latitudes—aurora may enhance VHF but degrade HF.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m/40m: Best after sunset and through the night; avoid daytime for HF DX.
• 20m: Good all day and into the evening; peak DX around local noon and grayline.
• 17m/15m: Best from late morning through afternoon; watch for brief DX windows.
• 12m/10m: Generally poor today; check for sporadic E or short-lived openings midday.
• Grayline: Target sunrise/sunset for enhanced long-path and DX on 20m/17m.

🌍 DX Opportunities

• 20m offers the most consistent DX, especially on east-west paths during daylight and grayline.
• 17m/15m may open to southern and equatorial regions late morning to early afternoon.
• Grayline propagation is favorable for transcontinental and intercontinental QSOs on 20m/17m.
• Auroral activity could open up VHF/UHF for northern operators; HF polar paths may be degraded.
• Watch for short, enhanced openings on 15m during geomagnetic lulls.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:
20m is the most reliable band throughout the day and night, supporting both local and DX contacts. 17m and 15m are marginal but worth checking for brief DX, especially midday. 80m and 40m are poor during the day but improve to fair at night for regional work. 12m and 10m are largely closed—only try these bands if you hear activity or spot sporadic E. For the best results, stick to 20m for DX and 40m/80m for nighttime nets and ragchews.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 3 (Unsettled) – Indicates moderate geomagnetic activity; some fading and absorption possible, especially on polar paths.
• Solar Flux: 118 (Moderate) – Lower than last month, limiting high-band propagation but still supporting 20m and 17m.
• Sunspot Number: 65 – Down from recent months, which means fewer ionization opportunities for the highest bands.
• Space Weather Overview: No major flares reported; X-ray background is at B3.8, indicating low to moderate solar flare activity.

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

The K-index has fluctuated between 0.3 and 5.3 over the past 48 hours, with notable spikes to 4-5 during the last 24 hours, indicating periods of geomagnetic storming. Currently, the K-index has settled at 3, showing improving but still unsettled conditions. This trend suggests that while the worst geomagnetic disturbances have passed, lingering effects may still cause some absorption and fading, especially on higher-latitude and polar paths.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B3.8 – Low to moderate; no significant HF blackouts expected, but keep an ear out for sudden changes.
• Solar Wind: 618.5 km/s – Elevated; can drive geomagnetic activity and cause additional fading or auroral effects.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux is high (3430), and proton flux is moderate (10); this may increase noise on HF, especially during disturbed periods.
• Aurora Activity: Level 4 – Active; northern operators may experience auroral enhancement on VHF/UHF, but HF polar paths may be degraded.
• Helium Line: 120.5 – Indicates moderate ongoing solar activity, but not at peak levels.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

Recent solar flux and sunspot data show a downward trend from late 2025 peaks (solar flux >150, sunspots >120) to current moderate values (solar flux 118, sunspots 65). This means high-band (12m/10m) openings are less frequent, while mid-bands (20m/17m/15m) remain the best bet for reliable propagation.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Solar activity is expected to remain moderate, with no major flares forecast.
• Geomagnetic conditions should gradually stabilize, but brief unsettled periods are possible.
• Best bands: 20m will continue to be the most reliable for DX and general contacts; 17m/15m may open for short periods.
• Worst bands: 12m/10m will likely remain poor; only check during peak solar hours or if you see cluster spots.
• Operators in northern latitudes should watch for auroral alerts, which can enhance VHF but degrade HF.
• Recommendation: Plan your operating around 20m for all-day activity, with 17m/15m as secondary options. Use digital modes to maximize your chances on marginal bands.