Amateur Radio Propagation Report

Sun Images for Past 72 Hours

Images copyrighted by the SDO/NASA and Helioviewer project

📋 Propagation Summary:
HF propagation today is shaped by moderate solar activity with a solar flux around 94 and sunspot numbers in the low 40s. The K-index is very low (0-1), indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions and minimal disturbances. Expect good performance on 20m throughout the day and night, with fair conditions on 40m and 80m—especially at night. Higher bands (17m, 15m) will be fair, but 12m and 10m remain poor. For best results, focus on the lower bands and take advantage of the stable geomagnetic field for reliable regional and some DX contacts.

💡 Operator Tips

• Prioritize 20m for both daytime and evening DX—this band is currently the most reliable.
• 80m and 40m will perform best after sunset for local and regional QSOs; use these at night.
• Digital modes (FT8, JT65) are recommended on higher bands (15m, 17m) to overcome marginal conditions.
• Monitor grayline times for enhanced long-path DX, especially on 40m and 20m.
• Keep antennas optimized for lower bands; high bands (12m/10m) are not expected to open widely today.
• For contesters: Focus on 20m and 40m for rate, and use 80m at night for multipliers.

⏰ Best Operating Times

• 80m, 40m: Best at night and early morning (local sunrise/sunset for grayline DX)
• 20m: Good all day and night; peak DX around late morning and early evening
• 17m, 15m: Fair during daylight hours; check for short openings mid-morning to afternoon
• 12m, 10m: Poor all day; only brief, sporadic openings possible

🌍 DX Opportunities

• Grayline: Enhanced propagation on 40m and 20m at local sunrise and sunset—target long-path DX at these times.
• 20m: Consistent opportunities for intercontinental QSOs, especially east-west paths.
• 17m, 15m: Watch for short-lived DX windows during midday, especially to equatorial regions.
• Aurora: Low activity (Aurora index 2); VHF/UHF auroral propagation is not expected.
• Special events: No major space weather events or alerts—expect stable, predictable conditions.

📻 Band-by-Band Analysis

Analysis:

• 20m is the standout performer—good propagation day and night for both DX and regional contacts.
• 40m and 80m are reliable at night and during grayline, with fair daytime conditions.
• 17m and 15m offer fair propagation, mainly for short to mid-range paths during daylight.
• 12m and 10m are largely closed—only attempt these bands if you hear activity or during brief sporadic-E events.

📊 Current Solar Activity

• K-index: 0-1 (very quiet): Geomagnetic field is stable, minimizing absorption and supporting good HF conditions.
• Solar Flux: 94 (current), 136 (recent monthly average): Indicates moderate solar activity; enough for 20m and some 17m/15m propagation, but not strong enough for reliable 10m/12m openings.
• Sunspot Number: 41 (current), 78 (recent monthly average): Lower sunspot counts mean higher bands are less likely to open, but 20m remains robust.
• Space Weather: No major flares or disturbances; X-ray flux is at B3.2 (quiet).

📈 Geomagnetic Conditions

• K-index trend: Stable and low over the past 24 hours—no recent geomagnetic storms or disturbances.
• Impact: Excellent for HF; low absorption, especially at higher latitudes. Expect consistent propagation without sudden blackouts or auroral effects.

🌟 Space Weather Details

• X-ray Activity: B3.2—very low, so no risk of HF blackouts or sudden ionospheric disturbances.
• Solar Wind Speed: 467 km/s—moderate, but not high enough to trigger geomagnetic storms.
• Particle Environment: Electron flux 1210, Proton flux 89—both at normal levels, so no additional absorption or polar cap absorption events expected.
• Aurora Activity: Index 2 (very low): No auroral propagation for VHF/UHF; northern operators will not see enhanced VHF conditions.
• Helium Line: 106.4—stable, indicating no significant solar trend changes.

📡 Propagation Timeline & Technical Details

• Historical Trends:
  • Solar flux has remained in the 120–138 range over the past 6 months, with a recent dip to 94 (current).
  • Sunspot numbers have declined from 100+ to the high 70s and now low 40s, reflecting a modest downward trend in solar activity.
  • This trend explains the current suppression of higher band openings and the consistent reliability of 20m and lower bands.

🔮 3-Day Forecast

• Expect continued moderate solar activity; no major flares or geomagnetic storms are forecast.
• K-index is likely to remain low, supporting stable HF propagation.
• 20m and 40m will continue to be the best bands for both DX and regional work.
• 12m and 10m will remain poor unless a sudden solar uptick occurs.
• No alerts or warnings—enjoy the quiet space weather and plan for reliable operations on the lower bands.